SnoSki14
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. -
Looks more high dew type stuff than 95+ heat.
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Still nearly zilch near New Brunswick
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For an organized system like this I'm surprised it's not that widespread. I'll see what the stuff in PA does though
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I got the split in New Brunswick with storms to the N/W and now to the east. Happened yesterday too.
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Total miss in central NJ
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Yup will be a bust here. HRRR takes the stuff in central PA south of us too. What we need is a tropical system or remnants of one to get some major rains
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HRRR looks very dry outside of NW NJ
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The stuff by state college could eventually get here in a weakened state later this evening otherwise things look tame for eastern sections. Flood outlook did a good job at highlighting eastern PA, central west and NW Jersey. Anyone east of 287 and south of 78 won't get much
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Looks like everything will be too far west. NW NJ looks like the spot to be
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If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled. -
Strong Ninos are supposed to have cool summers and we'll be near normal at best
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline.

