NittanyWx

standard NYC snowfall pattern.

Found it interesting that this was another event where a couple AI models kinda sniffed out the trend a run or two before the globals. That said, I think the Euro got its shine on this one.

Wilton CT 32.7/32 Coating SN

I tend to agree, it's a very fine needle to thread. I do think a light snow event via suppression is more likely than a Boston bullseye at this moment though. But to me the suppression risk and a miss is the real risk here...much more than p-type cutter.

I'm in the camp that risks with Boxing day event point towards more suppression vs P-type actually.

First big win of the winter for the AI models. Plowable coast. AIFS in particular did well in digging the SW and turning the trough more neutral vs positive a couple days back.

I like the slightly more amped trends we're seeing today as well.

I again point to the deep DGZ with this and think fluff factor will help.

I like the depth of the DGZ with this one. A little liquid goes a long way. Great test case for AI modeling here with the more amped and juicier solution and a notable difference in trough tilt. I think this is a measurable one for the coast at least. This vort here is holding the keys to the difference in more neutralish rough tilt vs more positive. I don't know the answer yet on whether AI is better poised to be the better predictor vs NWP on trough axis tilt and whether this is a use case where it has skill. I do know the Euro is further north than the GFS at 48 hours, has a less positive tilt and if I'd have to guess in most cases the trend in recent years is north late. I wouldn't necessarily dismiss plowable fluff at this stage for the coast... The confluence near us is the counterargument to that.

You posted a relational inference based on observed data, yes We're not arguing about that.

Yeah so my only point for this is if there's really something here I think we'd see it in actual statistical correlations with ENSO to snowfall. Whether that be rate of change of ENSO over the winter, a linear or partial correlation between regional observation and ENSO value itself...just something there that's more robust and can give us something to really sink our teeth into and find out what it's telling us and why. I think your points here aren't far from where I'm at too. But I'm more curious as to thought process above all else to see if there's something testable.

Asking you about your methodologies and whether they actually make sense meteorologically or whether it's an overfitting of observational data is stirring up controversy now?

Posted through the entirety of last winter and had a very good one forecasting wise. Had a very good one the year prior too.

Nice, so now you're calling my work sloppy because you can't find a meteorological reason for why your threshold makes sense other than it 'fits the data'. You've dodged the question 5 times now. I know what I am doing and your arrogance is really starting to show here. You haven't seen my work, I can promise you that. I don't work at a vendor.

The math does not hold man, I'm literally sitting here doing the testing and its an overfit. My best guess is found a value you think makes sense based on recent record and picked it because it fit observed data. All I've asked you, repeatedly I might add, is why 4" means something statistically and meteorologically. Why did you choose 4"? ENSO is not and never really has been a great predictor of snowfall here.