Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looking like winter 2010/11 will be a below normal winter-----precip too HERE IS DEC 2010 HERE IS JAN SO FAR CPC OUTLOOK PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THURSDAY JAN 20 2011 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2011 BORDERLINE STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEG C BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 160 E LONGITUDE. BELOW NORMAL SSTS EXTEND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N AND 20S LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FOUR NINO SST INDICES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MINOR VARIATIONS, WITH THE LATEST WEEKLY DEPARTURES RANGING BETWEEN -1.4 C AND -1.8 C. SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 200 METERS ALONG THE EQUATOR EAST OF AROUND 160W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO CLEARLY REFLECT MATURE LA NINA CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA, AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCED, AS ARE WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. ALL NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL ENSO FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIALLY NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES AT LEAST INTO BOREAL SPRING. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMICAL MODEL MJO FORECASTS INDICATE ONLY MODEST MJO ACTIVITY AT BEST, WITH BACKGROUND LA NINA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION. THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN -1 C AND -2 C THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON, SUGGESTING MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS FOR FEBRUARY 2011. FINALLY, THERE IS THE (N)AO TO CONSIDER, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CANNOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED MORE THAN ABOUT 2 WEEKS IN ADVANCE, BUT HAS BEEN STRONGLY NEGATIVE ALL WINTER AND IS PREDICTED TO BE NEGATIVE BY THE CFS EVEN IN FEBRUARY. THE JANUARY 2011 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES WITH CONSIDERATION OF OTHER TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS, RECENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT A SIGNIFICANT, NEGATIVE AO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FEBRUARY. COVERAGE IS VERY HIGH FOR A MONTHLY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST, IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ALSO OVER MOST OF ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE REGION. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM ARIZONA TO LOUSIANA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW-, NEAR-, AND ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, IN THE GREAT LAKES AND IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS AND ACROSS THE EAST GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS FOR A NARROW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO NEAR YAKUTAT. ELSEWHERE, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW-, NEAR-, AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE PREDICTED. FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DEN DOOL NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES). AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR FEB WILL BE ISSUED ON MON JANUARY 31 2011 THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Poor Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hopefully this means a hot dry summer and a warm dry spring. its not dry here. standing water is everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 All we need is 2 inches of cold liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 hopefully this means a hot dry summer and a warm dry spring. its not dry here. standing water is everywhere. we have missed your warmth in the hr 168 range color maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 we have missed your warmth in the hr 168 range color maps for all time sakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 we have missed your warmth in the hr 168 range color maps if there were any to post i would post them. its been a long miserable winter. snow is great for day after day of cold is costly and depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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