A look at Thanksgiving and beyond_a quick update

[usedtobe]

I debated whether to post this as part of the thread that's already pinned or to start a new one but thought it might get lost in the former. If me posting the contents of the blog are against the forum policy, let me know.

http://voices.washin..._thanksgiv.html

[usedtobe]

For those that actually read yesterday's blog,

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/11/a_look_ahead_towards_thanksgiv.html#comments

A quick update. Below I've posted the 168-240 hour mean 500h forecasts from the GFS and ECWMF. Using a mean has the advantage that the smaller scale, less predictable features disappear and are masked by the averaging so what shows up are the larger more predictable wavelengths. In this case, note that on these progs and on today operational GFS that the big ridge axis poking up into Alaska is replaced by a trough as the strongest pac ridging is now located well to the west of AK. The new AK trough then helps build weak ridging along the west coast where the mean pattern actually shows some warm colors indicating above normal heights. That ridging then forces the blues and troffiness that has been in the west eastward where it starts being forced under the NAO block. Also note that the block is very strong on both forecasts, especially the euro. All the above argue strongly that cold will get into the east just after thanksgiving and that the Great Lakes region should get a pretty good lake effect event. Will it be frigid, it's still November so maybe not, but the temps will be below normal from the mid atlantic states into the northeast

[sauss06]

sounds good, thank you.