Major Hurricane Isaias

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Prelim write up by MOB.

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/2110188812181860806?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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That inland 118 in Jay is pretty incredible id almost say unbelievable if it wasn’t for the 114 recorded nearby. Not surprisingly the wind damage in those areas is devastating 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Quite frankly, those things should have been thrown by the wayside after 2005. That decade from 1995-2005, especially the last 3 years (03-05), is a hyperactive stretch that we are unlikely to see again.

What to see how much of an outlier 2004 and 2005 were for major HU totals and those that had a CONUS landfall as a major?

3 of 32 hurricanes in the Atlantic had a U.S. major landfall 1995-2003, 7 of 13 2004-2005, and 0 of 29 from 2006-2016.
 

This underscores how recency bias is something not to fall prey to. 

Recall how after the 2004-05 season, it was widely promoted, "this is the new normal an how it going to be going forward."  And then you got the longest major hurricane CONUS landfall gap on record (11.5 years).  Did you hear this good news ever promoted in the MSM?  Sure, since 2017 it has been very active, but that is normal as well in the big pix.  Up and down TC cycles occur in every permutation possible over the long-term.

Point being is that using short-term snapshots in wx as climatological avg/mean/changes is severely flawed and should not be done.  The cognitive shortcomings present in human psyche are unfortunately often taken advantage of to skew reality.   We can all relate to this at one time or another!
 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Next year likely Nina, building OHC with this years lack of activity. Unless the Sahel is entering a new period of enhanced desertification (possible and would explain amount of dust the last few seasons) I fully expect the next two seasons to be hyperactive.


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Very strong El Nino does not guarantee a big Atlantic rebound TC season the next.  1983 is the lowest ACE season in the satellite era.  1992 was sig below avg ACE (76) and had only one major HU.  Yes, that was Andrew, but one high-impact landfall does not change the overall Atlantic season as to historical avg.

Outside of very strong El Nino?  1977 was weak El Nino and ACE of 25 - the 2nd lowest ACE in the satellite era.  1978 ACE (neutral ENSO) was 63.  2013 ACE was only 36 (neutral ENSO) and 2014 ACE (weak El Nino) was 67.

Also, very strong El Nino is not always followed by La Nina.  1991 very strong El Nino was followed by weak El Nino 1992.

Finally, El Nino and La Nina are not just polar opposites due to the non-linear
responses of the ocean.  And there are no less than a dozen other atmospheric oscillations going on around the globe at the same time, all interacting and in various states.

 

 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Isaias (2026) now stands alone in NC history as the largest tornado outbreak in the states history with 13 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday! The early calls for this being a prolific tornado producer were validated 

Do you mean "largest TC tornado outbreak in the states history?  B/c you have non-TC events like this.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110416_rpts.html

I count 14 NC tors from the 2020 Isaias.