Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Short changed big time with this last Rain Event. Bands moving south to north eastern flank of system missed central Lee County for the most part. 0.52" Total here. Western Lee received 1-1.5". Eastern Lee 1-1.25". Wise and Scott Counties, 1.2 to 2.3 inches. Monthly Total here so far, 1.64". 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/nwsmemphis/status/2109809283592606168?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg NWS Memphis showing a 40-69% fire weather probabilistic outlook for the mid south region for Friday


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[Carvers Gap]

Well, it is still freaking hot.  LOL.  We got a bit of a thankful respite this past weekend, but the furnace doesn't want to quit quite yet.  Looks like we have another nice weekend coming up.  Leaves IMBY are waaaaaay behind schedule in regards to changing color.  Just looking at the Euro weeklies(now daily of course), it looks like a monster block sets up in central Canada.  I wouldn't exactly call it HL blocking, but it is gonna have to be dealt with.  That block normally surpasses storm tracks but is rarely cold in that location - I could be wrong, but just thinking off the top of my head!

It is basically a HB block.  On the plus side(like our current temps), it could flip the AO strongly negative(per the control) if it is a bit further north.  That could open the door for very cold air(which I don't see on modeling at this time).

[Carvers Gap]

It should also be noted that at this time of the year, LR ext modeling can be extremely untrustworthy.  It can flip on a dime.  I thought the tropical system might shake things up(and it still yet might have done that), but the return of the heat ridge is at hand.  Let's see if something can knock it down for more than 4-5 days at a time.  The Euro Weeklies ext control can sometimes pick up pattern changes.  It has extreme blocking in the week 4 range, but not crazy cold temps to go with that blocking.

Snowpack in Canada may be well behind normal.  This might be a winter where winter arrives mid-late.