Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[jaxjagman]

Been a rough month here,broke the record for the driest Sept,notta thing here,tied the record daily highs with 2019...93.2F

Made a run at overall temp record,1925 avg, was 81.5,this Sept was 81.1

[nrgjeff]

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept.

Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below.

After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights. 

[jaxjagman]

Least we have a re-curving phoon the next couple days with a trough going through East Asia,we should possibly see temps drop into the 40's around mid month  LOWS,after that not very exciting seeing another seemingly strong WWB upcoming