2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Legit Strong Nino going

 

30 May 2026	1012.24	1014.15	-26.33	-13.17	-5.29
29 May 2026	1011.31	1014.15	-33.46	-12.63	-4.77
28 May 2026	1012.81	1014.30	-23.11

 

Again, lowest 2-month SOI likely in 10 years. March's +7 really came back around. It had never been above +2.3 in March in a developing Strong+ Nino before, guess it didn't matter too much, except showing general SOI tendency to not really take off like SSTA, that has been present in the 2020s. 

 Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.