cstrunk Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 On 9/20/2026 at 6:52 PM, cstrunk said: I'm no expert, and it's now Sept 20th, but some changes seem finally be on the horizon. Highs are "only" in the low-90s next weekend. Models are starting to show real rain chances by the end of the month. Still holding these thoughts. We have some "cooler" temperatures Thurs/Fri in the low 90s/mid-upper 60s. Next week several rain chances start to really take shape. Still don't see any hope for below normal temps any time soon. But the rain will be very welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 I guess these temps were like mid-July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 While there (once again) could be sig flooding & runoff issues over the Edwards plateau and hill country regions later this week/end and downstream runoff into STX in the coming weeks (esp. influence from remnants of Hurricane Polo and even TS Rachel out west), Fall does also look to actually move into the state for the first (full) week of October and on schedule. Including some below normal temps with widespread 70s (afternoon highs) over the northern half looking likely now Oct 6th - 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 I-35 corridor looks pretty good overall for really good rain. There will be winners and losers though. I look to be on the losing end in Longview, but we'll see how it plays out. Definitely looking forward to the "cooler" weather, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 over 6" of rain for Amarillo, Dodge City, Manhattan Kansas, and Omaha. 3.98" measured at Santa Fe, NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted 57 minutes ago Author Share Posted 57 minutes ago Very good coverage of beneficial rainfall in the state the past week. Without causing any major flood or runoff issues, surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted 16 minutes ago Author Share Posted 16 minutes ago While severe is possible over the northern and central half later next week (esp. with the PNA heading back into + phase), the bigger story is looking to be Fall coming back with a nice bang over the entire state. With substantially below normal temps next weekend (Oct 17th - 18th). AI/IFS models have been trending colder (now into the 30s), on Sunday morning's lows. This happened in the last (strengthening) EN Fall of 2023 before October ended, when much below normal temps happened everywhere in the state. But, ensembles are projecting the AO to remain in a modest + phase until about Oct 20th. So am *not very convinced on seeing 30s in the state just yet. Fall should be very noticeable over the entire state by next weekend either way, with both below normal daytime highs and nighttime lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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