NNE Cold Season Thread 2025-2026

[J.Spin]

March is complete, so I’ll pass along an update on seasonal snowfall progress here at our site in Waterbury. The updated seasonal snowfall progression plot is below, and this season (shown in the red line) is now just barely hanging on at the bottom of the pack of similar seasons. It’s quite obvious from the plot that this season is still well above average with respect to snowfall, but below average snowfall for the past couple of months has certainly cut into this season’s position among some of our top seasons.

This March certainly showed the weather dichotomy that the month can bring, and there were some interesting aspects with respect to snowfall. The updated storm list below is a good way to see the different periods within the month, with the first week continuing the wintry regime from February, and then the second week bringing in a warm, springlike period. After that though, we moved into a somewhat tempered, late-season bread and butter pattern with a good sequence of storms. You can see this starting on the 11^th, and system after system pushed through the area to bring 11 additional storms. That pattern persisted almost to the end of the month, when temperatures warmed up a bit once again. The number of storms was well above the monthly average of roughly 8 to 9 storms, and in fact, March 2026 now holds the record for the most March storms in my database with 13, beating out March 2019, which had 11 storms. That record is a testament to just how active and snowy the month was once we were beyond that early week of spring-like warmth. But even with 20+ inches of snow, the month was still about 10 inches below average on snowfall. So we had a lot of storms, but they were all small to moderate snowstorms, and the month can often have some very significant events, and that’s why the snowfall average is up around 30 inches. On a seasonal note, it’s been consistently strong with respect to the number of winter storms – we’d already had 62 accumulating storms through the end of March, and we’re onto number 63 with some accumulation from the front end of the current system (Winter Storm Joseline). The highest number of accumulating storms I’ve ever recorded here in a season is 64 in 2018-2019, and that number is certainly within reach with all of April and May still to go.

Below I’ve updated the statistical projections for where this season’s snowfall might end up. It’s really looking like something in the 180-190” range if snowfall progresses at an average pace from here on out; getting to 200” would take a hefty event or two and is very unlikely. But there’s still a couple of months to go in the snow season, and a good April can bring 20”+ of snow, so we’ll see what Mother Nature does. It looks like we do have another snowy period coming up from Sunday night onward, which I’ll touch on below.

≥150”: 100.0%

≥160”: 100.0%

≥170”: 100.0%

≥180”: 82.6%

≥190”: 18.1%

≥200”: 0.3%

This season’s snowfall started out at a good pace – with three months of above average snowfall and 120” by midseason. None of those early winter months were actually outrageously far above average, but stacking a solid November, December, and January together with lots of storms and minimal warm periods is going to make an impression. The valley, and especially the mountain snowpack had a solid start, and that set up a fantastic base moving forward in the ski season. In the monthly snowfall plot below though, you can see how the snowfall pace fell off in February and March, which were both below average.

I did a quick check on where the Vermont ski areas stand for season snowfall thus far, and the north to south listing of totals is below. The resorts along the spine of the Northern Greens are right around that 300” mark, which is probably around average, and I think Bolton Valley only has a week or two left before their planned closing. Hitting 300” is certainly the sign of a decent/average season in the Northern Greens, but those are typical numbers and they’re not going to be a huge story. Jay Peak is somewhat ahead of average and approaching 400”, which is a bit more notable, but they just hit 475” last season and are probably in that 400” range in about a third of their seasons. So, their snowfall number is good, but not groundbreaking. It’s when they pass 500” up there that you know it’s one of those very special winter/ski seasons.

Jay Peak: 397”

Burke: 169”

Smuggler’s Notch: 301”

Stowe: 294”

Bolton Valley: 297”

Mad River Glen: 192”

Sugarbush: 222”

Pico: 190”

Killington: 190”

Okemo: 126”

Bromley: 178”

Magic Mountain: 112”

Stratton: 153”

Mount Snow: 128”

On average, the snow on our property here typically runs out in mid-April, and we seem to be on track for something average like that with a colder stretch coming up. There’s nothing too substantial expected at this point with respect to big events, but the BTV NWS is starting to discuss the period:

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

733 AM EDT Thu Apr 2, 2026

KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough along with several lobes of embedded shortwave energy will bring upslope snow showers to our area from Sunday night through Tuesday. Cold air will sink down over the north country from Canada during this timeframe, and cooler than normal temperatures will remain through Wednesday night.