Gulf AOI Watch: The Season’s Not Sleeping Yet! (0/20)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the Florida Peninsula  and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late
next week (and y’all better stock up on Hot Cheetos, I am NOT playing).


Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Jackson

[BarryStantonGBP]

[tiger_deF]

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

Mental run mate

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

I’m expecting the models to back on and off of development of this feature, especially given the background state, but this ICON run is an eye opener

 The ICON has at least been hinting at this since the Wednesday (7/9) runs whereas the other recent operationals have not had much, if anything. Ensemble support is only light.

 If this does occur, it would be an easy win for the Icon.

[GaWx]

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

[tiger_deF]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z Icon has a cat 2-3 (968 mb) hitting near the LA/TX border Fri night after battering much of the LA coast on Thu-Fri fwiw.

I hope it slides to the west or east if it is still predicting development, that area has been hit really hard in the past few years, Laura Delta and others have caused a lot of damage