TV Severe Weather2025-?

[vortexse93]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wednesday is another outflow boundary special. May might feel late for the Deep South but early May is still prime time climo down there. LLJ is gonna be veered off quite a bit; but, strong upper-level winds will create robust speed shear and decent directional shear right on the outflow boundary.

Said boundary will be key. Away from that locally higher low-level shear the storm relative shear won't quite support tornadoes. I think the narrow 10% is the right call for Wed. Otherwise it's straight wind and perhaps hail from hotter cells. Storm mode looks like a mix of segments and blobs, with a few sups.

Valid Wed. May 6

I am going to share this post and will add my thoughts to it.

Tomorrow will be depend on the development and where the any potential outflow boundaries will setup at tomorrow afternoon/evening. Model guidance continues to show a messy line of supercells to develop across Central MS, right where the 10% tornado risk is currently highlighted in the graphic. 

The decision to storm chase or not remains up in the air as storm development will be on the edge of the Delta in to I-55 and I-20 area. Best case would be for a supercell to develop to my immediate north and meet it there before sun goes down which would be very doable. Will make the decision tomorrow afternoon as it looks like the storms will be close enough for me to make such a last minute decision. 

[vortexse93]

Wednesday 5-6-26 Morning Update 

12z KJAN morning sounding shows a decent sounding to start the day off with the loaded gun appearance.  Will need to see if any sunlight can break through the clouds to enhance mixing and help start eroding some of the cap away. My only concern at this moment is the wind profile at the surface. Still in need of some sort of outflow boundary to get winds to turn more southerly instead of southwesterly to enhance the directional shear across the area to have any chance of discrete/supercells this afternoon and evening. 
 

Current model guidance suggests that I-20 will be the dividing line. Model guidance however does not fully agree on if storms will be more favorable south of I-20 or north of I-20. Regardless, will need to watch to see how conditions will evolve throughout the day. Currently, would much rather chase north of I-20 where trees are less of a hassle/hindrance. South of I-20, trees are major issue so any potential to chase in this area will be considered unlikely. 

Chase target for me if storms develop along I-20 and north will be Canton, MS which is about 30-45 minutes north of my current location and have some decent options if needed. If I do chase south of I-20, options are extremely limited and will likely have to stick near I-55 or I-20 or maybe a major highway like Hwy 49 to have any chance of chasing or seeing anything worth noting. 

This decision is really undecided as I am waiting to see how morning model data trends and see how the environment will evolve by this afternoon. 
 

Date: 5/6/26 @ 9:05 AM

[nrgjeff]

Today has potential if it's close. Who cares if it's sloppy, low visibility, full of trees and hills? In the South we go mess or we go home, lol! Worst case you get a country drive, and get back in time for the NBA playoffs.

Yeah that overcast is a real problem south of the boundary. It'd be acceptable north of the boundary until early afternoon. South of the boundary really needs some heating soon to start destabilizing. Lapse rates are there above the low-level crud. 

Yeah the LLJ is weakening and retreating north. However upper-level winds remain stronger than what is necessary. Absolutely need the outflow boundary to locally back winds and create favorable SRH. 10% is probably right for just the boundary*. Otherwise looks like messy storm modes. Even on the boundary storm interaction could be a problem. What's new in the South? 

* I see two boundaries. Yes along I-20 is the coastal front or some other dewpoint differential. It lumbers north more in Alabama thanks to less overcast (still I-20). Agree that's the one for the best chance of discrete sups and tor. Synoptic lumbering front is in North Mississippi and North Alabama (almost Tenn border). It'll have storms, but more interaction and more problems.

Also if one overlays the hatched hail with the hatched tornado, indirect way of looking for sups, it favors Miss. 10% in Bama could be messy mode. Again, they all could be messy.

If I'm in JAN or BHM I'd plan on wrapping up work a few minutes early to chase. If it looks like crap enjoy a rainy evening watching sports at home. As for me, no plans to depart Chatty.