CryHavoc Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Surprised there isn't a thread on this already. This has the makings of a pretty serious early season outbreak, with an extremely vigorous trough digging into the Midwest starting early next week. Some of the ingredients are already lining up, models look like there is adequate consensus, moisture return looks incredibly rich. I've seen estimates for the low as far down as 985mb. That D7 is probably the largest 15% contour for a full week out I've ever seen, although some of the early model runs look like D6/Tuesday might be the main event. Ominous setup either way. Still plenty of time to bust, but I wouldn't bet money on this one going without some notable sigsvr action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 A lot of uncertainty right now as to how this trough evolves given that there's three pieces involved. The northern stream trough, the southern stream closed low off the SW coast, and a lead wave that looks to eject towards the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday looks to have poor instability for the most part. IMO the greatest threat is in the Midwest on Tuesday, especially if the former and the latter features work together in a way that resembles the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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