Dec 23 Capital Weather Blog

[usedtobe]

Here's my latest, the odds for the mid Atlantic are drying up. The euro has shifted east and those who have been extolling its virtues should start realizing that it may now have a bias in trying to phase storms. In a nina year even with a block, that seems to be hard to do. Of course, it may also just be bad luck. My guess is that the POPS in the article are too high but I didn't want to drop them altogether this early.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/odds_of_major_storm_shrinking.html#more

[Typhoon Tip]

I am almost wondering if that D10 Euro might be better for your part of the Middle Atlantic.

Multi-day CPC derived PNA values showing some +2SD recovery ...entering into positive domain D7-10, while the NAO relaxes, but only to neutral/negative.

That canvas doesn't strike me with hot iron that the 00z notion of a bigger eastern ridge would work out too well - and I am also noticing a 1000 mile eastward shift in the axis of the negative anomalies over the northern CONUS between the 00z and this 12z run as it is.

Also, the MJO is apparently strengthening through Phase 7, and that enters forcing into the P7-8-1 preferred configuration. These more at hemispheric indicators would argue for that closure in the upper midwest/Lakes to be futher SE, regardless of whether any deterministic solutions depicts it at this time.

Lots of time.

[usedtobe]

I am almost wondering if that D10 Euro might be better for your part of the Middle Atlantic.

Multi-day CPC derived PNA values showing some +2SD recovery ...entering into positive domain D7-10, while the NAO relaxes, but only to neutral/negative.

That canvas doesn't strike me with hot iron that the 00z notion of a bigger eastern ridge would work out too well - and I am also noticing a 1000 mile eastward shift in the axis of the negative anomalies over the northern CONUS between the 00z and this 12z run as it is.

Also, the MJO is apparently strengthening through Phase 7, and that enters forcing into the P7-8-1 preferred configuration. These more at hemispheric indicators would argue for that closure in the upper midwest/Lakes to be futher SE, regardless of whether any deterministic solutions depicts it at this time.

Lots of time.

In the blog, I never really discussed the time ranges beyond this coming storm or non-storm and haven't looked much beyond the shorter time ranges so I can't comment on what your saying.

[Typhoon Tip]

In the blog, I never really discussed the time ranges beyond this coming storm or non-storm and haven't looked much beyond the shorter time ranges so I can't comment on what your saying.

I'll give it read a bit - can't do it from here.