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turtlehurricane

The Florida Winter Thread

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Frontal zone becoming better defined over the middle of the country. Should become quite vigorous over the next day. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-01-24-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
I still think there's room for the forecast to trend colder depending on what exactly happens with the dual cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and East Coast. 
Miami nws been trending down all week...euro had a 56 high for friday last week...it might be close

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Hard Freeze Watch in effect from Jacksonville down to Ocala, I believe these are the first hard freeze advisories in Florida this year. NWS forecasting freezing temperatures for Orlando and Tampa, and basically down the entire interior of the peninsula all the way to Lake Okeechobee. 

Really excited that the day is here. Front just starting to move into far western Panhandle now, will move through the whole state today. There's some fairly vigorous precip and thunderstorms along the front, at least so far. We will see how it holds up as it plunges south. 

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Nam and GFS has my area struggling to hit 50 tomorrow.  Cold bias Canadian has it roughly 43-45.

We will see. 

Currently near 80. With a deep SW flow. Puffy cumulus clouds.

The AC is off and windows are open. 

Models show a small squall line coming through about 8 PM. Probably won't see much rain. 

I shaved my head today, probably regret it tomorrow. 

Merry Christmas. 

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Definitely the wrong time of the year to shave your head, if there is ever a right time!

Front is starting to show its power. Temps have crashed into the upper 40s in the middle of the day in the Western Panhandle, including the Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Crestview areas. 

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19 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Definitely the wrong time of the year to shave your head, if there is ever a right time!

Front is starting to show its power. Temps have crashed into the upper 40s in the middle of the day in the Western Panhandle, including the Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Crestview areas. 

Lmao right. 

That upper level trough really starting to dig. Almost at a neutral position. Soon the clouds will be going SE to NW over the Apps. 

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The sun is setting now. Although cooler air has made its way across the entire Panhandle, with temps already in the low 40s in the Western Panhandle, the entire peninsula is still immersed in humid tropical air with 70s and 80s. 

That will drastically change tonight! Also, FROPA will be much more dramatic due to it coming at night time versus the day time. 

Also, a band of rain/storms has setup south-north along the SE FL coast, its been raining on and off here. The main squall line is getting ready to broadside the entire peninsula over the next several hours. 

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Definitely the wrong time of the year to shave your head, if there is ever a right time!
Front is starting to show its power. Temps have crashed into the upper 40s in the middle of the day in the Western Panhandle, including the Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, and Crestview areas. 

‘Twas a brutal day up this way! Already in the 30’s with a stiff NW wind. High tomorrow just lower 40’s & then upper 20’s Saturday morning.


.
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17 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


‘Twas a brutal day up this way! Already in the 30’s with a stiff NW wind. High tomorrow just lower 40’s & then upper 20’s Saturday morning.


.

You can keep that shyt up there.  

Dont remind me. Light rain started about 30 mins ago. Not looking forward to it.

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44 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


‘Twas a brutal day up this way! Already in the 30’s with a stiff NW wind. High tomorrow just lower 40’s & then upper 20’s Saturday morning.


.

That sounds nice to me, at least for a day lol. I guess I like South Florida winter so much cause it can get real cold and then it's gone in a couple days. 

Cold front just entering South Florida, it's passed through Fort Meyers. Squall line died, since cold front outran the convection and cutoff the instability, but front is very well-defined by a band of light/moderate rain, which is interesting to watch on radar. It's moving really quick. 

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I stayed up all night working with my boss, and right around 1 am tremendous blasts of wind rattled the house. Easily gusted to 50 mph. Indeed, many sites on SE FL coast recorded 40+ mph. I was scared a tree was gonna come down on my car. 

Now sun is rising and temp has crashed to 53 F, and it's still dropping. Literally was 75 F only 6 hours ago at 1 am, dramatic FROPA. 

About to step out into the winter air to do my morning prayers :)

EDIT: Back from prayers, this is seriously some Wisconsin air!!! It's incredibly refreshing. 

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Just past solar noon, so the peak heating of the day has come and gone, and that heating has only managed to get us up to 54 F. Incredible CAA, and once again, we are much colder than forecast by roughly 10 F. 

I think it has a lot to do with much stronger northerly winds than originally forecast. It's been really ripping out there. 

NWS forecasting a low of 47 F tonight. If it's 54 F at the peak heating of the day, it makes no sense that we'd only be able to achieve a low 7 F cooler than this under clear skies and continued CAA at night. We could be at 47 F by the time the sun sets at this rate...

mm_time_chart_dyn.cgi.png

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1 hour ago, jlauderdal said:

DP is only 30, we will have no trouble going under 45..im going with 41 at fll

Still freezing cold out there, has not gotten warmer all day, at least subjectively. 

High at FLL today was 59 F, and now temp is steadily declining, so we indeed did not get out of the 50s today! Been a long time since that has happened. Same story down in Miami, they got no higher than 58 F. 

Dewpoints here are the same as in the Lake Okeechobee region, hovering in the mid 30s. We could end up going into the 30s tonight, especially since a light breeze will be advecting in the colder air from the Everglades. 

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GOES from earlier today. This cold front is by far the dominant feature in the hemisphere. 

Winds already slackening off big time even tho sun hasn't even set. Only a bit of upper level clouds and they are moving out. Could end up being an ideal radiational cooling setup, with just the slightest flow of winds from the NW which enhances the cooling potential as it blows in boundary layer air from the interior. 

Notably, very little temp gradient across Florida right now. 53 F here on the SE FL coast, and simultaneously it's 53 F in Orlando. 47 F in Tallahassee, 48 F Jacksonville. 

Screen_Shot_2020-12-25_at_4_59.03_PM.png

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Freeze warnings being issues for Orlando area. If this is radiational cooling I like my chances as I'm on the SE of side of a large lake. I maxed at 54.1F today. I do not plan on protecting my coconut tree as it already has Christmas lights wrapped around the base. Dewpoint is currently rising. At 38F. 

Screenshot_20201225-173816_Chrome.jpg

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Was in Paisley FL today.  Had a family get together. Dinner and beer by a fire.

Made it up to about 50 degrees despite full sunshine. 

Wind has relaxed.  Pretty much calm atm. Freezing warnings in affect. Projected low temp 32-33.

Tradewinds posted above...I'm in orange county pretty close to lake county.  I'm expecting temps around 30 or below. 

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51 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

GOES from earlier today. This cold front is by far the dominant feature in the hemisphere. 

Winds already slackening off big time even tho sun hasn't even set. Only a bit of upper level clouds and they are moving out. Could end up being an ideal radiational cooling setup, with just the slightest flow of winds from the NW which enhances the cooling potential as it blows in boundary layer air from the interior. 

Notably, very little temp gradient across Florida right now. 53 F here on the SE FL coast, and simultaneously it's 53 F in Orlando. 47 F in Tallahassee, 48 F Jacksonville. 

Screen_Shot_2020-12-25_at_4_59.03_PM.png

That's a impressive image. 

 

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Temps got into the low-mid 40s that night in the SE FL metro area, and it felt frigid cold. First time I saw my breath in a long time. A station in the interior of Palm Beach County hit 35, and Venus, FL, at the far NW corner of South Florida, hit 34. 

The Panhandle and Northern Florida went deep into the 20s. The lowest I can find after a brief analysis is 22 F. 

Back to regular Florida winter weather here, 75 F right now. Still really nice compared to the Summer where it's usually 90-95 F. Doesn't look like any potent cold fronts in the next week, but that's typical, cold weather comes in cycles where it's like 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off. So I'd expect in mid January we will see more serious cold fronts. 

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P.S. NWS Miami made an excellent yearly rainfall graphic for South Florida. We got like 100 inches of rain here, which is basically two years worth of rain in one year. For most of the Summer the street I live on was a river, with waves, currents, and aquatic life. 

I think that's mostly due to the abundance of tropical cyclones this year. We had so many tropical cyclones effect us this year I can't even remember them all off the top of my head. 

2.png

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Now this is my kind of weather. 

Last couple of days had the windows open at night and  day.

Warm and breezy. Currently 80 mid 80s definite again today 

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It's been quite warm here for awhile now, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s, but cold front pushing through South Florida tonight should drop our low temps down into the 50s starting tomorrow night and continuing for an entire week, with highs in the low-mid 70s during the same period of time.

Basically, some perfect Florida 'winter' weather on the way. I'm excited. 

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Supposed to get down to 44 tonight.  I've been noticing that the cold has been under done by 2-3 degrees.  

Probably a safe bet to place...40 degrees. 

It was pretty cool this morning. 42-43.

Honestly since I moved back to my home area in 2014. I don't think I ve seen as much brown and burnt bahia grass. That along will fall colors. 

Not much sweet gum trees or maples but just about every one is was yellow to brown. 

Alot of wild grape vines in the trees are yellow.  In fact alot of Elephant ears are showing stress.

 

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I've been working near Mt Dora, FL.

But this morning I seen frost out in rural Lake County. 

Was a solid 10 degree difference. 40-30ish.

There was frosted roof tops 

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1 hour ago, FLweather said:

I've been working near Mt Dora, FL.

But this morning I seen frost out in rural Lake County. 

Was a solid 10 degree difference. 40-30ish.

There was frosted roof tops 

Wow! Yeah this airmass has been cooler than anticipated by a bit, likely due to the fact that it's the optimal time of the year for cold weather. Looks like many more days like this ahead due to upper trough sitting still over the eastern half of the country. No serious cold shots coming though. 

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Frosty again this morning up around Rock Springs and rural parts of Lake County. 

Kind of weird not to have frost advisories.

Can tell though the air is a bit dryer, not as much frost overall.

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GFS shows a fantasy freeze out towards 400 hours. In general hinting at an increasingly colder pattern as the month progresses. 

In the meantime pretty strong cold front coming this weekend, highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s expected. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-07 at 3.15.13 PM.png

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We'll see.

But yeah I think another pattern change in store.

Tonight's ULL laying the ground work for it.

If that's really the gfs. Then yeah more than likely. 

Its going to get cold. 

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Got pretty cold last night, felt really nice. Lows in the upper 40s. 

GFS has been trending weaker on the cold front later this week. Only about 1-2 months of 'winter' left here, and then the freeze chances will dry up. 

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Cloudy and cold this morning with passing showers, feels like New York. GFS shows several cold fronts coming in over the next week so it'll stay fairly cold. Nothing major coming though. 

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