February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential

[snowstormcanuck]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

YYZ recorded 4.2" with this event.

Brings seasonal total up to 37.5". Avg is 45". 

Barring some horrible luck, looks like we'll have back-to-back-to-back 40"+ seasons for the first time since 2002-03/03-04/04-05.

[snowstormcanuck]

19 hours ago, snowcaine said:

Almost every single model had 4-8" falling during the commutes on Thursday into Friday. The special weather statement made sense IMO, it just didn't pan out. Models blew this one. Even ensemble prediction had a fairly high probability of 10+ cm.

EC alerts based on vulnerability, not just amounts. 5-10 cm during rush hour in a major city has higher impacts than 15 cm on a weekend. The point is to alert people so that they can alter their behaviour (e.g. work from home on that day). Sometimes it doesn't pan out. I'm really frustrated with how the storm turned out also. I sure wasn't expecting barely 3" from the two waves.

I wasn't quibbling with the statement being issued in the first place.  But by Thursday evening it was apparent there was nothing "special" about this storm for us, I think it could have been dropped.

It's easy to criticize though, I get it.

[snowcaine]

8 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I wasn't quibbling with the statement being issued in the first place.  But by Thursday evening it was apparent there was nothing "special" about this storm for us, I think it could have been dropped.

It's easy to criticize though, I get it.

I think it stayed in effect due to the surprise model shift for the overnight into Friday period for some snow (RGEM had potentially 4")

[Snowstorms]

9 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Barring some horrible luck, looks like we'll have back-to-back-to-back 40"+ seasons for the first time since 2002-03/03-04/04-05.

Well-deserved. It's been almost 20 years now. We missed it by a fraction back in 2015. 

It really speaks volumes about how crap winters have been in our area compared to those around us.