on_wx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Ontario Tornado Watch Facebook Group posted this graph comparing violent tornadoes (F3-F4) in Ontario since 1950 vs. Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies. If they're making the comparison that cold Atlantic years can be followed by significant tornado events in Ontario, then could the same be said for surrounding states? For years we've had a feeling that Southern Ontario might be seeing some monster EF3-EF4 type Tornadoes in the near future but there was never really any data to support that gut feeling... until now? It's been 30 years since an EF4 Monster Tornado touched down in Southern Ontario. (Two F4's and one F3 touched down at the same time on May 31st, 1985) On average, Southern Ontario experiences an EF4 strength Tornado every 15 years. We're 15 years overdue. unsure emoticon We also just noticed something very interesting with the temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. When they get colder than normal, EF3 and EF4 Tornadoes become much more common in Ontario. If you look the image I posted in the comments, we're just moving into a significant temperature drop, similar to the 70's and 80's. These next few years might get real interesting. Hold onto your hats. - OTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think I got all the years/temp anomalies correct here, the graph could have been better made/easier to read... 1953 (1) - Warmer 1970 (1) - Warmer 1974 (1) - Cooler 1979/1980(?) (2) - Warmer 1985 (3) - Cooler 1986 (1) - Cooler 1990 (1) - Cooler 1996 (2) - Cooler 1997 (1) - Warmer 2004 (1) - Warmer 2012 (1) - Warmer I don't see much correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Also, their data seems suspect... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.sm.long.data AMO goes negative at the end of 1963 and stays that way until the middle of 1996, but they have a lot of positive spikes in that time period (late 1960s, early 1970s, early 1980s). If we use the data from the above link: 1953 - Warmer 1970 - Cooler 1974 - Cooler 1980 - Cooler 1985 - Cooler 1986 - Cooler 1990 - Cooler 1996 - Flipped from Cooler to Warmer 1997 - Warmer 2004 - Warmer 2012 - Not listed, but I am guessing Warmer ----- First list: 6 warmer, 5 cooler Second list: 6-7 cooler, 3-4 warmer, 1 flip Correlation still doesn't seem to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think this is a good example of correlation does not equal causation. Though it appears to follow the trend in parts, it only has a max sample tornado quantity of 3, which atleast in my view, doesn't provide much resolution when comparing to the temp deviation... still interesting to look at though. I wonder if they did a comparison of total tornadoes per year if the correlation would still appear relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Since 1900 there have been 21 years with F3/F4 tornadoes in Ontario. I don't see much of a connection in the OTW graph either. 1985 was a fluke year for the Great Lakes with May 31, 1985. For years below 1950 if anyone has any AMO data maybe they could make a comparison. Also interesting to note that off the top of my head I know that the mid 1900s, 1940s, and late 1970s featured cold winters in Ontario, and also a couple violent tornadoes. 1902 - 1 F4 1903 - 1 F3 1906 - 2 F3 1907 - 1 F3 1916 - 1 F3 1926 - 1 F3 1944 - 1 F3 1946 - 1 F4 1947 - 2 F3 1948 - 1 F3 1953 - 3 F3, 5 F4 1956 - 1 F3 1965 - 1 F3 1967 - 2 F3 1970 - 1 F3 1979 - 2 F4 1983 - 1 F4 1985 - 2 F3, 2 F4 1990 - 1 F3 1996 - 2 F3 2011 - 1 F3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1916, 1926: Cooler 1944, 1946, 1947, 1948: Warmer It's still pretty close. There is not a strong signal that a +/- AMO = more or less violent tornadoes. Anyone can look at some indices and try to correlate that to whatever they want, but can they prove a causation? I think that Jenny McCarthy is causing more autism. The older she gets, the more cases there are. What does OTW think is the relationship between AMO and violent tornadoes? I think they're just click baiting. I don't trust people who use inflammatory language in their discussion (ie. "monster" tornadoes), and I don't trust random people on Facebook trying to gain page likes and clicks by trying to alarm people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think this is a good example of correlation does not equal causation. Though it appears to follow the trend in parts, it only has a max sample tornado quantity of 3, which atleast in my view, doesn't provide much resolution when comparing to the temp deviation... still interesting to look at though. I wonder if they did a comparison of total tornadoes per year if the correlation would still appear relevant. Yeah this. How many strong tornadoes there are in a yearly is somewhat chaotic, especially in somewhere like Ontario where the sample size is ridiculously low. Is there any correlation* between tornadoes overall and AMO? Otherwise, the argument becomes that Atlantic SSTs directly influence the strength of individual tornadoes, rather than just tornado occurrence, which really doesn't make sense. *Others have shown that their correlation is pretty dubious anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Saying things like "EF4 Monster Tornado" immediately turns me off from this article/"study" in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What if they'd said "EF4 maxi wedge grinder"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Saying things like "EF4 Monster Tornado" immediately turns me off from this article/"study" in the first place. It wasn't very well put together in the first place. Wanted to see if there was any credence to what they were suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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