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WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

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Could be. Dew point is the lowest it's been all day, though, so maybe it's just the city bouncing around as it has done on sunny days in the past.

 

EDIT: Then again, yesterday the dew point didn't respond to the sea breeze.

 

Sometimes I think its more complicated than simply looking at the sea breeze at the surface. When there is decent mixing, you need to take the cumulative effect of winds in the boundary layer. My guess is that the bulk winds were still primarily offshore until near nightfall when the sea breeze winds dominate as the boundary layer became more shallow. That's why we see significant dewpoint recovery overnight as the boundary layer decouples from the mixed layer and you can moisten up the shallow boundary layer rather quickly with primarily onshore winds.

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85/48/11/0

Have been too warm on the low for most of this city, finally went colder so fully expecting it to stick in the 50s tonight.

Seems like there should be more wind with the temp in the 80s but I guess they are not in a favorable position for gap flow.

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With the winds getting up today, it is now mathematically possible for me to win the city...I need:

-High of 85 or higher

-Low of 48 or lower

-Wind of 10 knots or lower

I have a little more room for a cat 3 trophy. Will be watching closely tomorrow. Am most worried about about winds getting higher.

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Makes me worry about tomorrow. One person who can potentially tie or pass me went 14 knots tomorrow and you went deep with 16.

I saw a few days with NE flow in the mid teens in knots when they got into the mid and upper 80s last month.

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With the winds getting up today, it is now mathematically possible for me to win the city...I need:

-High of 85 or higher

-Low of 48 or lower

-Wind of 10 knots or lower

I have a little more room for a cat 3 trophy. Will be watching closely tomorrow. Am most worried about about winds getting higher.

I need the high to be 85+ and winds to be 12 or less for a cat 3 trophy now. Am most worried about the wind...the sea breeze is how they've gotten their strongest winds almost everyday here and today the models suggested any sea breeze would barely get to them if at all...but they'll mix well and that could cause strong enough winds for me to narrowly miss out. If the wind is 10 knots or less I can work with a cooler high.
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82 now so I think 85-86 should be doable for the high. The northerly winds so far haven't been very strong so I'm starting to feel better about that, but also have to get through the sea breeze later. The HRRR shows a period of 9-10 knot winds with the sea breeze.

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Climo says 12 knots as of 5PM local! Winds are coming down now so assuming that holds I will win a trophy by the skin on my teeth (as is it's a tie for the second spot among cat 3 forecasters)

 

Hoping it stays 12kts for your sake... if so, congrats!

 

I had a great last day, but it wasn't enough to make up the ground I lost with the low forecasts this week. I'll finish the city 41st nationally, and 12th among cat 2's.

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Climo says 12 knots as of 5PM local! Winds are coming down now so assuming that holds I will win a trophy by the skin on my teeth (as is it's a tie for the second spot among cat 3 forecasters)

 

Congrats on the trophy. You are having an amazing year. #2 overall! 

 

Somehow I went from +5 to -3 this week, I still don't feel like I understand the weather there but at least I eventually could guess what it was going to do. 

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Somehow ended up in Top 100 despite 14 error points on the low! Pretty much 3 guys ahead of me for the year did even better than my -4.5 so it's frustrating I left some points here :\ Oh well... onto Alabama with that crazy week of rain coming up!

 

Congrats on another trophy, OHweather!

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83/57/17/0... really not confident at all with the forecast, especially the low. My reasoning for the 57F is that the southerlies will get there and kick up the dew points, but that they'll be a little slower than some models have, and so dew points won't have time to respond quickly enough for the low to be closer to 59/60. But I could see scenarios on either side.

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