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Mark Dee

Gulf of Mex deep storm into US coast next mid-week?

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Note 45 kts wind max at 5,000 ft over New Orleans Thursday.


More impressive, on Friday note expansive 60-65 kts winds at 5,000 ft over FL plus the Carolinas - there due to squeeze with Arctic high pressure to the north.



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From NWS Tallahassee

The main concern in the extended period comes on Thursday as a
potent shortwave carves through the northern Gulf, resulting in
rather significant Gulf cyclogenesis. This forecast will favor the
12z ECMWF as it has held a much steadier forecast over the past
couple of days, and is also supported by the CMC. The surface low-
track, as well as the low and deep layer wind profiles are quite
concerning with respected to severe convection. Both the ECMWF and
the CMC, depict a 50+ KT LLJ nosing right up Apalachee Bay.
Further, a strong mid-level jet max raises deep layer shear values
over 60 knots. However, as impressive as that is, both the ECMWF
and CMC depict enough isentropic rain ahead of the dynamic system,
to effectively cut off any chance of surface based storms.
Nonetheless, with considerable differences between the GFS and
ECMWF, the forecast remains highly uncertain and with such
impressive wind fields, all interests should pay close attention
to forecast changes as the system draws nearer.

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