Mark Dee

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About Mark Dee

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    Look up, that's where the fun is...

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KPWK
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  • Location:
    Palwaukee IL
  1. Some hints from ECMWF of March 31 - April fools snow for MKE/ORD.
  2. Yes apparently the timing of the upper troff reaching the amplitude to cause surface cyclogenesis will occur later and farther east than previously calculated. Possibly the system forecast 3-4 later may have a better thermal identity. March is the typical focus for severe convective wx over the southeast; we may see a pattern transition to this possibility over next 3-10 days.
  3. Very unusual to have a 110 kt jet over FL along with impressive vertical wind shear profiles above a developing Low. Here are some comments from NWS offices in FL: Talahassee .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The main focus in the extended range will be on Thursday as a very dynamic frontal system moves into the northeast Gulf. Strong Gulf cyclogenesis will place a mature surface low somewhere along the Panhandle coast by Thursday morning. Extremely impressive low and deep layer shear values will be more than enough to warrant a credible severe weather threat. The main uncertainty with this system will be the exact position of the low and associated jets, as well as the uncertain instability forecast. There have been considerable model differences both model-to-model and run-to-run with respect to the ultimate position of the low making it hard to really make a sound prediction at this time. The only thing the guidance can agree upon is the just how dynamic the system will be. Therefore, the entire Tri-State region (especially north Florida) should keep a close eye on the developing forecast over the next couple of days. Melbourne AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS VEER FROM E-NE WED MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS TO SUB-1010MB JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA BY THU MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE FL BIG BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DECENT CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE OF AN EVENT IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH IT IS 4 DAYS OUT. Tampa THE NEGATIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AT 00Z FRIDAY SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF INTO FLORIDA. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PAINT A PICTURE OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH A HEALTHY DYNAMIC SETUP FEATURING A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...500 MB VORT MAX ENTERING THE REGION...AND A SUPPORTIVE CONCURRENT 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. WHILE THIS RUN DID NOT OFFER AS STRONG A LOW AS PREVIOUS RUNS...THIS FORECASTED SYSTEM CAN STILL CREATE IMPACTS TO THE REGION AND BEARS WATCHING.
  4. Possibly this storm system and the one 3-4 days later will be better known for their convective / severe weather potential.
  5. You may in fact be correct. It is interesting most of this winter has been dominated by northern stream energy which phased or tapped into southern stream moisture. In the upcoming event, its all southern stream energy in a short-term split flow pattern over the US. With the milder source region, it may be a mostly rain and thunder event, with frozen precip primarily in higher elevation above 2,000 ft. Now in first week of March the higher sun angle, warming etc. Lots in play with this one !
  6. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0159.html
  7. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0158.html
  8. Given the ice / snow threat up north, with this Gulf of Mex extratropical low, equally in concern, the severe wx convective risk to mariners over the eastern Gulf and west coast of Florida may be significant on Thursday, then crossing the state thereafter. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 VALID 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS -- D5/THU... THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND RELATED ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUES TO BOLSTER CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ON D5/THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PLAINS EVENTUALLY OVERLIES AMPLE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BREEDING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW COMPONENT WITHIN THE ENSUING WARM SECTOR WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE/HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E POLEWARD. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MAY FOSTER ONE OR MULTIPLE SQUALL LINES CROSSING THE PENINSULA AND KEYS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES OF CONCERN. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE OVERLAP OF A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SPEED SHEAR COULD ENHANCE THE SVR POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BY THE CASE IF A STRONG MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION COILS AROUND THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE PARENT DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ENHANCING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE. HOWEVER...THE DELINEATION OF ANY AOA-30-PERCENT SVR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME OWING TO STILL-ONGOING DIFFERENCES AMONGST VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS AND THE RELATED EVOLUTION OF BUOYANCY AND WIND FIELDS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION SUPPORTING AN ENHANCED SVR THREAT...PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ..COHEN.. 03/02/2014
  9. You are correct. However, I will do all that I can to hi-light the significant risk of severe weather in that region on Thursday. The rain shield is iffy, the 60 kts of VWS is not. Appreciate your opinion and also Andyhb. The weather event will play itself out; be safe and best to you.
  10. Per attached link, some of the Gulf water remains as warm as 80F. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Would greatly energize a possible squall or frontal TS line on Thursday into FL.
  11. Please, continue in the future to critique my posts. Thank you.
  12. From NWS Tallahassee The main concern in the extended period comes on Thursday as a potent shortwave carves through the northern Gulf, resulting in rather significant Gulf cyclogenesis. This forecast will favor the 12z ECMWF as it has held a much steadier forecast over the past couple of days, and is also supported by the CMC. The surface low- track, as well as the low and deep layer wind profiles are quite concerning with respected to severe convection. Both the ECMWF and the CMC, depict a 50+ KT LLJ nosing right up Apalachee Bay. Further, a strong mid-level jet max raises deep layer shear values over 60 knots. However, as impressive as that is, both the ECMWF and CMC depict enough isentropic rain ahead of the dynamic system, to effectively cut off any chance of surface based storms. Nonetheless, with considerable differences between the GFS and ECMWF, the forecast remains highly uncertain and with such impressive wind fields, all interests should pay close attention to forecast changes as the system draws nearer.
  13. from NWS Tallahassee FL The main concern in the extended period comes on Thursday as a potent shortwave carves through the northern Gulf, resulting in rather significant Gulf cyclogenesis. This forecast will favor the 12z ECMWF as it has held a much steadier forecast over the past couple of days, and is also supported by the CMC. The surface low- track, as well as the low and deep layer wind profiles are quite concerning with respected to severe convection. Both the ECMWF and the CMC, depict a 50+ KT LLJ nosing right up Apalachee Bay. Further, a strong mid-level jet max raises deep layer shear values over 60 knots...
  14. Perfect hockey weather for the game inside Soldier Field tonight ~
  15. good that you are pretty sure ~ appreciate the comment.