A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

[donsutherland1]

From Science:

We estimate that, between 1992 and 2011, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets lost 1350 ± 1010 and 2700 ± 930 Gt of ice, respectively, equivalent to an increase in global mean sea level of 11.2 ± 3.8 mm.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183.full

[The_Global_Warmer]

That is a big consensus and end's the idea that Antarctica is gaining more ice than it is losing. It's not likely to sway many who believe that Antarctica is gaining mass overall.

[TerryM]

"the ice sheets are now losing almost three times as much ice as they were in the early 1990's"

1992-2012 - 11.2 mm

2012-2032 - 11.2 + 33.6 = 44.8 mm

2032-2052 - 44.8 + 134.4 = ~18 cm

2052-2072 - 18 + 54 = 72 cm

2072-2092 - 72 + 216 = 2.88 m

If the extrapolation held through the century we'd expect > 3 m sea level rise once thermal expansion was added.

I don't really expect to be able to forecast much from such limited data but it does show that 3 m in a century is possible. If Greenland's sheet retreats to Eemian levels we'd have 4-7 meters from that source alone. The PIG has recently calved again and could collapse if it melts back behind it's sill & the Antarctic is already making a contribution.

I don't think we'll see 3 meters by 2100, but I don't think we'll see < 1 meter either.

Terry

[skierinvermont]

I haven't followed the papers on ice mass balance closely but I do remember some pretty large disparities and ORH posting about them.

This study seems to reconcile this and has fairly small error bars.