The Capital Weather Gang article from Dec 6

[usedtobe]

I wrote this before seeing today's 12Z guidance but don't see any reasons to change it. Looks to me like the most likely scenario is for this to be a rain storm rather than a snow storm for our area.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/any_truth_to_rumors_of_a_storm.html#more

[catoctin wx]

great article again Wes! nice job on explaining the inherent uncertainty in the situation while still making some form of a forecast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Nice article! Great read. I'm glad to see you emphasizing the uncertainty inherent to weather forecasting a week in advance for a storm that hasn't formed thousands of miles away.

[usedtobe]

Nice article! Great read. I'm glad to see you emphasizing the uncertainty inherent to weather forecasting a week in advance for a storm that hasn't formed thousands of miles away.

I did try to convey the uncertainty but I also think the odds are getting shorter and shorter for snow in the I95 DC to PHL corridor. Today's ensembles don't look that favorable and neither do the operational runs. The European ensembles have becoming increasingly bearish and have a pretty strong low going towards the great lakes.

[mdsnowlover]

interesting how a gulf of alaska low can eat up a neg nao.

[usedtobe]

interesting how a gulf of alaska low can eat up a neg nao.

That feature and the fact that the close high in the Atlantic is a little east of where we want it. We'd like it over southern Greenland into Baffin Bay.