winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 very niceee at 192... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 very niceee at 192... Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics. i dont put alot of stock in a model output 7 days away lol but still nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 hr 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 i dont put alot of stock in a model output 7 days away lol but still nice to see I know but you have to also understand what you see is crap and wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know but you have to also understand what you see is crap and wrong. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know but you have to also understand what you see is crap and wrong. what you say is probably true, but there is no explanation with the model run. How are we supposed to know. A/ll I can say is that there is a signal for a snowstorm in a given period of time. I can only take what is shown by the model run. I need you to interpret. Thanks .Without an explanation you take what you get. What else can we do??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 what you say is probably true, but there is no explanation with the model run. How are we supposed to know. A/ll I can say is that there is a signal for a snowstorm in a given period of time. I can only take what is shown by the model run. I need you to interpret. Thanks .Without an explanation you take what you get. What else can we do??? No I agree there is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 No I agree there is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect. it looks nice to see but it is still 7 days away, and im sure the models will be back and forth, at least a few times , but was nice to see the gfs actually hold the storm for 3 runs( 18z, 00z, 06z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 it looks nice to see but it is still 7 days away, and im sure the models will be back and forth, at least a few times , but was nice to see the gfs actually hold the storm for 3 runs( 18z, 00z, 06z) Yes, but be leery as there is a lot of weather between now and then, and things could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yes, but be leery as there is a lot of weather between now and then, and things could go either way. very true my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No I agree there is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect. I agree, there just isn;t any explanation with these graphics and I dont know the biases. Good thing your on this board. to make sense of what is going on . Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 I agree, there just isn;t any explanation with these graphics and I dont know the biases. Good thing your on this board. to make sense of what is going on . Thanks still 7 days away, thats 28 gfs runs and 14 euro runs so im sure things will change lol and euro looked a bit inland, so its not like models are even agreeing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Canadian almost keeps Chicago all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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