2010/11 Top 10 Season Snowfall Qualifiers

[michsnowfreak]

I *think* it is 81.3" that is needed here to break into top 10?

Not really. See my last post. For here this was the first normal winter since 05-06. All the rest were above average by atleast 11+ inches and 3 of them were in the top 4. This area/W.MI was a anomaly though this winter compared to the rest of the region which did very well compared to average. Heck Detroit finished with 10 inches above here which is rare.

This winter actually provided the biggest storm since moving here ( in July 2004 ) with 14" and thus the ground hog storm. While the number of medium/small storms have come up the number of massive storms ( well over a foot and or 18+ ) have actually gone down. 08-09 is now the snowiest winter ever with 109.6" yet the biggest storm was a foot. However in cases like 66-67 the big storm ( 28.6"/31" ) did help the cause but even removing that storm the winter would have ended up decently above climo especially the climo of back then when snowfall averages ( 1930-1960 30yr average ) in this area were in the low/mid 40s i do believe? Seasonal total was 96.8" in 66-67. Ofcourse the 1930s till the early 1960s were the least snowiest and or at the bottom of the trend line going back to the late 1800s which started out with higher snowfall averages ( close to todays averages ) and then decreased and bottomed out during that period ( 1930-early1960s ) and then began to rise again. That is per the climo guy at GRR and what numbers they do have for here match it. Same at other nearby areas in the GRR area/W.MI and even Detroit/DTX..

Im glad that such a trend was noted by GRR, as it correlates beautifully to Detroits numbers wrt what was going on with snowfall in this region at any given point. Regardless of what X city average in terms of inches, the roller coaster trend of starting out in the 1880s, then dipping down biggtime in the 1930s-60s, and then since rising back up again (with a dip in the '90s tho not as extreme as the 30s-60s, but then immediate rise and then some in the 2000s). So basically even though Detroits 1880-2010 average is just a hair under 41", in reality its more like a 45" climate but the longterm numbers point closer to 40" due to the big dip from the 1930s-60s. We are now actually starting to head into unchartered waters. Average snowfall the past 4 years is 63" at DTW. If this keeps up we are going to see a real big spike in snowfall averages!

[Harry]

No doubt LES is increasing. We can pick and prod at whos doing the measuring all we want, but there is ZERO doubt that large LES events are increasing in all the belts. Even here in SE MI we have seen so much more LES this decade than last. Nothing major, but I mean in the '90s I remember very few LES events other than a few dustings, and its now common to get 1-2" here, 1-3" there, dustings galore. And of course synoptic snow is way above normal.

You remember when i first moved here and a few use to tell me that 1-2/1-3 was tops as far as LES goes for THIS area and that typically the advisories/warnings are west of here? Ofcourse being on the edge has been a huge help with the sharp increase in LES as the bands get further inland then what they use to apparently.

Im glad that such a trend was noted by GRR, as it correlates beautifully to Detroits numbers wrt what was going on with snowfall in this region at any given point. Regardless of what X city average in terms of inches, the roller coaster trend of starting out in the 1880s, then dipping down biggtime in the 1930s-60s, and then since rising back up again (with a dip in the '90s tho not as extreme as the 30s-60s, but then immediate rise and then some in the 2000s). So basically even though Detroits 1880-2010 average is just a hair under 41", in reality its more like a 45" climate but the longterm numbers point closer to 40" due to the big dip from the 1930s-60s. We are now actually starting to head into unchartered waters. Average snowfall the past 4 years is 63" at DTW. If this keeps up we are going to see a real big spike in snowfall averages!

Already has with the 30yr normal around here from that low 40s average during the 1930-1960 era to the 61.5" now despite the 90s. The 4 year average here is like 83.5" or something like that. 93.0" ( at the moment ) for 07-08, 109.6" in 08-09, 73.1" in 09-10, and 59.0" for 10-11. I believe the 11yr ( 2000s ) average going back to 00-01 is like 76.5" or so. Crazy stuff.

[michsnowfreak]

You remember when i first moved here and a few use to tell me that 1-2/1-3 was tops as far as LES goes for THIS area and that typically the advisories/warnings are west of here? Ofcourse being on the edge has been a huge help with the sharp increase in LES as the bands get further inland then what they use to apparently.

Already has with the 30yr normal around here from that low 40s average during the 1930-1960 era to the 61.5" now despite the 90s. The 4 year average here is like 83.5" or something like that. 93.0" ( at the moment ) for 07-08, 109.6" in 08-09, 73.1" in 09-10, and 59.0" for 10-11. I believe the 11yr ( 2000s ) average going back to 00-01 is like 76.5" or so. Crazy stuff.

1880s- 47.3"

1890s- 42.7"

1900s- 46.3"

1910s- 39.7"

1920s- 46.1"

1930s- 32.9"

1940s- 27.6"

1950s- 37.8"

1960s- 31.8"

1970s- 45.6"

1980s- 45.2"

1990s- 37.2"

2000s- 45.3"

Unofficial 30-yr norms***

1980-2009: 42.6"

1970-1999: 42.7"

1960-1989: 40.9"

1950-1979: 38.4"

1940-1969: 32.4"

1930-1959: 32.8"

1920-1949: 35.5"

1910-1939: 39.6"

1900-1929: 44.0"

1890-1919: 42.9"

1880-1909: 45.4"

I did unofficial bc its quicker to calculate (ie the official is 1981-2010 not 1980-2009, plus it undergoes some data control as well). This is just to show a general theme. And its very clear cut. Whats really ironic is that the 30-year normals hit their all-time low naturally for the 1940s-1960s period, so these would be the normals during the infamous 1970s!

*Note the avg for the past 4 years is 62.6", and never before had a 4-year period seen so much snowfall*

[Harry]

1880s- 47.3"

1890s- 42.7"

1900s- 46.3"

1910s- 39.7"

1920s- 46.1"

1930s- 32.9"

1940s- 27.6"

1950s- 37.8"

1960s- 31.8"

1970s- 45.6"

1980s- 45.2"

1990s- 37.2"

2000s- 45.3"

Unofficial 30-yr norms***

1980-2009: 42.6"

1970-1999: 42.7"

1960-1989: 40.9"

1950-1979: 38.4"

1940-1969: 32.4"

1930-1959: 32.8"

1920-1949: 35.5"

1910-1939: 39.6"

1900-1929: 44.0"

1890-1919: 42.9"

1880-1909: 45.4"

I did unofficial bc its quicker to calculate (ie the official is 1981-2010 not 1980-2009, plus it undergoes some data control as well). This is just to show a general theme. And its very clear cut. Whats really ironic is that the 30-year normals hit their all-time low naturally for the 1940s-1960s period, so these would be the normals during the infamous 1970s!

*Note the avg for the past 4 years is 62.6", and never before had a 4-year period seen so much snowfall*

Very nice work dude.

WOW.. Look at the 1940s.

Would be alot of people in this region diving off cliffs if that happened again.

Weird how that worked out in the 50s/60s there vs here as the 60s were much better then the 50s were in this area.

Here is every year from 1949-50 till 1969-70 and then again 2000-2011. BTW. I see GRR has the numbers out for here at the other station in town ( Not KBTL ) for this past winter and so yes that is the updated number. Still nothing yet for KBTL. Ofcourse we may not get any either considering the issues they had there. Good thing they have two here. I see my missing the 0.2/0.3 stuff did not add up to much. That 06-07 total still pisses me off.

1949-1950    47.4
1950-1951    42.6
1951-1952    76.8
1952-1953    27.0
1953-1954    45.4
1954-1955    37.5
1955-1956    43.0
1956-1957    36.9
1957-1958    39.8
1958-1959    41.2
1959-1960    53.5
1960-1961    31.9
1961-1962    41.5
1962-1963    46.1
1963-1964    37.5
1964-1965    71.2
1965-1966    35.2
1966-1967    96.4
1967-1968    41.5
1968-1969    55.9
1969-1970    65.7

Vs 2000- 2011

2000-2001    88.5
2001-2002    88.2
2002-2003    59.6
2003-2004    48.4
2004-2005    81.3
2005-2006    46.2
2006-2007    97.5
2007-2008    93.0
2008-2009   109.6
2009-2010    73.1
2010-2011    63.8

[tacoman25]

Kinda depends on where you are as far as increased LES. I remember GRR doing a study on it a few years back and per their study LES had increased inland ( by alot in some cases ) while areas right at the lake shore saw none and even decreases. They *think* it had to do with warmer lake waters. This *could* explain the numbers down there in Ohio as well. Heck look at the snowfall averages here which have been coming up over the past 40+yrs and really skyrocketed in the past 11 or so years. Ofcourse all of it cant be blamed on LES either as we have had a number of very active winters too such as 04-05, 07-08, 08-09 etc. Ofcourse this past winter and for several now we have seen a large number of nnw/nw/n flow events too and well YNG is downwind of BOTH Erie and Huron as well.

Wouldn't this only have early season effects, though? I mean, pretty much every winter the lakes cool off a ton (and in some cases freeze), no matter how warm they were the previous summer/fall.

In addition, the heavier snowfall the past few years has coincided with cooler temperatures in the region overall...the lakes almost certainly had to be warmer in the warmer 1990s and early 2000s.

[Harry]

Wouldn't this only have early season effects, though? I mean, pretty much every winter the lakes cool off a ton (and in some cases freeze), no matter how warm they were the previous summer/fall.

In addition, the heavier snowfall the past few years has coincided with cooler temperatures in the region overall...the lakes almost certainly had to be warmer in the warmer 1990s and early 2000s.

I believe the office did that study back in the middle of 08-09 winter? May have been 07-08?

Anyways.. Perhaps a warmer fall? Lake Michigan rarely freezes and if it has i believe it is one of the last to freeze? 00-01/01-02 had some massive LES events and actually the biggest on record for this area happened in those winters ( Late Dec 2001. Buffalo got destroyed via Erie ) i do believe. I'll see if i can get a hold of that study.

Most of the LES typically falls in Dec/Jan.

[tacoman25]

I believe the office did that study back in the middle of 08-09 winter? May have been 07-08?

Anyways.. Perhaps a warmer fall? Lake Michigan rarely freezes and if it has i believe it is one of the last to freeze? 00-01/01-02 had some massive LES events and actually the biggest on record for this area happened in those winters ( Late Dec 2001. Buffalo got destroyed via Erie ) i do believe. I'll see if i can get a hold of that study.

Most of the LES typically falls in Dec/Jan.

That could be...falls have been warmer recently, much warmer than the rest of the year.