tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just quickly glancing at the nam, i bet it comes north here with the precip. The cnfluence is lifting out faster and the s/w is digging harder in the plains. We shall see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm done starting threads. This is the 3rd threat in a row I've killed by starting the discussion thread. It this turns out to be the case, then by all means continue.. less work for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just quickly glancing at the nam, i bet it comes north here with the precip. The cnfluence is lifting out faster and the s/w is digging harder in the plains. We shall see though Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Fail lol i was just writing that...it looked good in the beginning, then just went down the crapper like elko's winter. I still think this storm comes up and hits us with a little snow. O well, time for bed, c ya guys later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 lol i was just writing that...it looked good in the beginning, then just went down the crapper like elko's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 21Z SREF was a bit wetter and a bit colder... implied perhaps a small accumulation along I-95 as temps reach 32F for an hour or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ok Ok you're right I shouldn't call a bust until after the event. But just following the trend from this Sunday, which ended up farther south and much drier than forecast, I'm not too optimistic. That got me thinking though, Henry's Big Daddy Hat The 12z CRAS is a big hit and thunder Road started a thread Three reasons why a storm is going to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like the EC has given up on this one... only 0.02" thru 12Z Thursday now at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like the EC has given up on this one... only 0.02" thru 12Z Thursday now at TTN. GFS on board now with 0.25" for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS on board now with 0.25" for PHL too warm though. 850's support snow, but surface runs 35-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 for this event to get snow you need heavier precip. you cant have 3 hours of lgt precip or you won't dynamically cool down to the wet bulb. Thats why places like dc get snow from this because they get into the hvr precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 too warm though. 850's support snow, but surface runs 35-40. I was referring to qpf, not just snow.. but your right the freezing level hovers slightly below 2,000 feet, at least for PHL so were going to need something more than just light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 6z RGEM has a stronger Low (~999 mb) generally in the same place as the 6z NAM, although not as elongated. Precip does not extend as far north as it does on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z NAM is wetter, slightly stronger and slightly farther west compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 09 SREF also a little wetter. This one might recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 09 SREF also a little wetter. This one might recover We need heavy precip like the ECM was showing a few runs ago if we want decent snow. 0.10" won't give us an inch, since the sun is killer this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z NAM in the same spot through 48 hrs as 6z, although a whole 4mb stronger and a better NW expanse of precip. Gives SNJ 0.10"...not that that helps anyone anyway since it won't be heavy enough to stick even if it IS cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12 Z GFS is bringing this back THU 00Z 31-MAR 0.4 -4.4 1017 96 99 0.16 549 536 THU 06Z 31-MAR -0.9 -3.7 1015 98 67 0.02 549 537 ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sfc is still warm for I-95... NW can get snow out of this one now it appears. Yeah, the way the EC lost this and then the GFS and NAM brought it back from the dead reminds me a little of 12/26... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z nam dropping 2-4 over the area for rd 1...ray just upped his total from coating to an inch for ttn to 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z nam dropping 2-4 over the area for rd 1...ray just upped his total from coating to an inch for ttn to 1-2 That's kinda light and the temps are so marginal it could be snizzle for the most part. It's not an optimal environment for steady snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That's kinda light and the temps are so marginal it could be snizzle for the most part. It's not an optimal environment for steady snow... whatever happens, the system coming at night will help if it decides to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 SREFs are basically the same as 15z. 0.25 contour gets up to the LV, 0.50 contour farther south than 15z, but all of NJ is shaded in the 0.25 this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 0z NAM is farther south and a tad drier than 18z, still brings 0.10 into Philly, perhaps a little bit more to come beyond hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 looks like mainly rain on the nam this run. Lgt precip will be rain in the city and in the burbs without decent elevation. We need some decent precip to filter down the cold air and wet bulb down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 looks like mainly rain on the nam this run. Lgt precip will be rain in the city and in the burbs without decent elevation. We need some decent precip to filter down the cold air and wet bulb down. 0.02-0.03 an hour at TTN with surface temps in the mid 30s isn't going to get them anything other than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0Z GFS is really warm in the BL... rain along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 12z NAM wants to give most the immediate PHL area 0.30" tonight. We're cold enough all the way down through hr 24, then maybe we mix a bit after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 two problems though: hr 21 and 24, surface sits at 34.9° moderate dry air pocket around 650mb, which is probably too high to allow for evap cooling, but still dry enought to cut off precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wet bulbs at the surface are in the 30s now. With clouds increasing, I tend to doubt they drop much tonight, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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