Catastrophic Katla eruption during 2011?

[metalicwx366]

We all know Katla is ready to explode and will be 1000x worse than the volcano in iceland that starts with an e. The question is when will it be ready to erupt? Does any one think it a be a repeat of 1816 with no summer for the North if this is widespread enough with low solar activity and a negative Nao and lower global temps??????

[skierinvermont]

From what I understand, a Katla eruption this year is far from certain. Even if it did erupt, it is unlikely the effect would be as large as the Tambora eruption which was a VEI 7. . The scale is logarithmic. Pinatubo was a 6. Most of Katla's eruptions are 4s or 5s, maybe one low 6.

A 4 probably would have zero effect on global temperature, and a 5 might have a small effect (maybe .1-.2C). It really takes a 6 and even if Katla erupts it probably won't be a 6, though you never know.

It also depends on the composition of the discharge. If it is a high proportion of SO2, not ash, then the climate effect would be larger.

[stellarfun]

We all know Katla is ready to explode and will be 1000x worse than the volcano in iceland that starts with an e. The question is when will it be ready to erupt? Does any one think it a be a repeat of 1816 with no summer for the North if this is widespread enough with low solar activity and a negative Nao and lower global temps??????

A.) How do you know Katla is ready to explode?

B.) How do you know any eruption will be a 1000x worse?

C.) Katla did not erupt in 1816. The volcano you are probably thinking of is Tambora; its VEI was a 7. Katla has never been a 7. The 1918 eruption was a 4+. The 1860 eruption was a 4. The 1823 was a 3. The 1765 eruption was a 5?. The 1721 was a 5? For comparison, Mt. St. Helens was a 5.

The last 6 was Pinatubo in 1991.

[BethesdaWX]

We all know Katla is ready to explode and will be 1000x worse than the volcano in iceland that starts with an e. The question is when will it be ready to erupt? Does any one think it a be a repeat of 1816 with no summer for the North if this is widespread enough with low solar activity and a negative Nao and lower global temps??????

It is an Arctic Volcano, so its effect would not be as great as a Tropical Volcano even if it were to max out its potential. However, Tropical Volcanoes impacts, if enough SO2 is forced into the stratosphere, cools the globe, then ends up warming the globe as the GLAAM has to spike after the initial response, and an El Nino develops.

This only in the case of tropical volcanoes. The Pinatubo Eruption was one of the reasons the 1990's were so El Nino Dominated, it didn't warm the globe as much as we'd expect today, aka, response after the Eruption to "counteract".

[skierinvermont]

I came across an image from Jones et al. 2005 of the modeled effect of a Toba sized eruption which was the last VEI 8 (74k years ago). The globe cools close to 10C at the peak short-term response. Toba is believed by many to have wiped out most of the human population at the time. From Jones et al. 2005:

The frequency of such an eruption appears to be once every few hundred thousand years or so. VEI 8s have the capacity to trigger ice ages lasting 10s of thousands of years, if the earth is already on the edge of an ice age.

[k***]

OP is racking up quite the streak of awesome posts.

[Clifford]

A.) How do you know Katla is ready to explode?

I think there are a few things.

1 - A Katla frequently follows an Eyjafjallajökull eruption.

2 - Katla has s growing bulge.

I'm seeing some notes on the Goðabunga bulge. However, the data seems to be somewhat spar

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1273025/pg1

http://eurekamag.com/keyword/g/125/godabunga-001.php

“… Using the displacement vectors in a forward grid search for the best-fitting Mogi point source, suggests a centre of inflation in the northern part of the caldera at 4.9 km depth … The rate of uplift at the Austmannsbunga GPS point increased markedly between the 1993-2000 measurements and the 2000-2003 measurements, from a few mm per year to about 2 cm per year. Back-tracing… …suggests a start of the inflation in the early spring of 1999… … The cumulative uplift of the Austmannsbunga point since 1993 is 7.2 cm. With the location of the Mogi point fixed at 4.9 km depth, this corresponds to an uplift of 12 cm directly above it. A sub-surface magma volume increase of 0.019 km is implied…

There is also apparently growth in the Caldera.

However, to put that in perspective.

The Mt St. Helens bulge was growing at a rate of about 4 to 5 feet a day prior to the 1980 eruption, with a total bulge growth of about 450 feet!!

http://www.mountsthelens.com/history-1.html

3 - Earthquakes.

Apparently there are both Glacier mediated earthquakes and volcanic earthquakes, so the two effects are somewhat overlapping.

http://www.igsoc.org/annals/45/a45a068.pdf

Anyway, there have to be thresholds, especially of the earthquake data and the bulge data that would indicate an imminent eruption. I don't see that data at the moment.

So, we'll obviously get more Icelandic eruptions. But, we need more careful analysis to say which one, where, and when.

The doomsday predictions seem to be in popular literature rather than scientific literature.

[skierinvermont]

I think there are a few things.

1 - A Katla frequently follows an Eyjafjallajökull eruption.

I read somewhere that usually it is a few months and it's been much longer than that.

[stellarfun]

I read somewhere that usually it is a few months and it's been much longer than that.

Most times not. Eruption history:

Eyjafjallajökull

2010 -

1821-1823 2

1612 - 2

920 - 3

Katla

1918 - 4+

1860 - 4

1823 - 3

1755 - 5?

1721 - 5?

1660 - 4

1625 - 5

1612 - 4

[skierinvermont]

Most times not. Eruption history:

It looks like the 1612 Katla eruption was within a year of the Eyja eruption, and the 1823 Katla was shortly after the end of a 2 year Eyja eruption. I guess it can be a more than a few months between the two.

[BethesdaWX]

I think there are a few things.

1 - A Katla frequently follows an Eyjafjallajökull eruption.

2 - Katla has s growing bulge.

I'm seeing some notes on the Goðabunga bulge. However, the data seems to be somewhat spar

http://www.godlikepr...sage1273025/pg1

http://eurekamag.com...dabunga-001.php

There is also apparently growth in the Caldera.

However, to put that in perspective.

The Mt St. Helens bulge was growing at a rate of about 4 to 5 feet a day prior to the 1980 eruption, with a total bulge growth of about 450 feet!!

http://www.mountsthe.../history-1.html

3 - Earthquakes.

Apparently there are both Glacier mediated earthquakes and volcanic earthquakes, so the two effects are somewhat overlapping.

http://www.igsoc.org.../45/a45a068.pdf

Anyway, there have to be thresholds, especially of the earthquake data and the bulge data that would indicate an imminent eruption. I don't see that data at the moment.

So, we'll obviously get more Icelandic eruptions. But, we need more careful analysis to say which one, where, and when.

The doomsday predictions seem to be in popular literature rather than scientific literature.

That still doesn't mean it will be a major eruption, by its standards. The bulge is getting very large though.

[metalicwx366]

A.) How do you know Katla is ready to explode?

B.) How do you know any eruption will be a 1000x worse?

C.) Katla did not erupt in 1816. The volcano you are probably thinking of is Tambora; its VEI was a 7. Katla has never been a 7. The 1918 eruption was a 4+. The 1860 eruption was a 4. The 1823 was a 3. The 1765 eruption was a 5?. The 1721 was a 5? For comparison, Mt. St. Helens was a 5.

The last 6 was Pinatubo in 1991.

A.)First of all Katla usually follows a year or months after the eruptiion that volcano that has an e in iceland, and it is one of the overdue hurricanes,

B.) IF that wimpy eruption caused that much travel chaos, what will a more major volcano do?

C.) Never said katlla erupted in 1816 have no idea where that came from. LOL and that ws back then. Volcano measurements were not that accurate, just like how you can somehow know if a hurricane loop in the atlantic in 1913 when there was no satelites.

[stellarfun]

A.)First of all Katla usually follows a year or months after the eruptiion that volcano that has an e in iceland, and it is one of the overdue hurricanes,

B.) IF that wimpy eruption caused that much travel chaos, what will a more major volcano do?

C.) Never said katlla erupted in 1816 have no idea where that came from. LOL and that ws back then. Volcano measurements were not that accurate, just like how you can somehow know if a hurricane loop in the atlantic in 1913 when there was no satelites.

A.) See the above post. In the last 400 years, Katla's eruption have coincided with the 'E' volcano 25 percent of the time. Katla has had more recent eruptions then posted in the list above, last was about 20 years ago, but the glacier capped the eruption.

B.) Cause even more travel chaos, but this forum is about climate change, not travel chaos.

C. that's correct, you didn't say Tambora, but Katla has never been a 7 volcano on the VEI. Tambora is a 7, and as for recording its eruption, the records are pretty precise:

On 5 April 1815, a moderate-sized eruption occurred, followed by thunderous detonation sounds, heard in Makassar on Sulawesi (380 kilometres or 240 mi), Batavia (now Jakarta) on Java (1,260 km or 780 mi), and Ternate on the Molucca Islands (1,400 km or 870 mi). On the morning of April 6, volcanic ash began to fall in East Java with faint detonation sounds lasting until 10 April. What was first thought to be sound of firing guns was heard on April 10 on Sumatra island (more than 2,600 km or 1,600 mi away).^[18] At about 7 p.m. on 10 April, the eruptions intensified.^[4] Three columns of flame rose up and merged.^[18] The whole mountain was turned into a flowing mass of "liquid fire".^[18] Pumice stones of up to 20 centimetres (7.9 in) in diameter started to rain down at approximately 8 p.m., followed by ash at around 9–10 p.m. Hot pyroclastic flows cascaded down the mountain to the sea on all sides of the peninsula, wiping out the village of Tambora. Loud explosions were heard until the next evening, 11 April. The ash veil had spread as far as West Java and South Sulawesi. A "nitrous" odor was noticeable in Batavia and heavy tephra-tinged rain fell, finally receding between 11 and 17 April

from Wiki

_______________________

As for hurricane paths, there are ship's logs and land station reports. Before there were planes, the only way to get from place to place, and you couldn't go overland, was by boat.

Here are the tracks of hurricanes in 1893, a famous year for NYC in hurricane annals, and 20 years before 1913.

[metalicwx366]

A.) See the above post. In the last 400 years, Katla's eruption have coincided with the 'E' volcano 25 percent of the time. Katla has had more recent eruptions then posted in the list above, last was about 20 years ago, but the glacier capped the eruption.

B.) Cause even more travel chaos, but this forum is about climate change, not travel chaos.

C. that's correct, you didn't say Tambora, but Katla has never been a 7 volcano on the VEI. Tambora is a 7, and as for recording its eruption, the records are pretty precise:

from Wiki

_______________________

As for hurricane paths, there are ship's logs and land station reports. Before there were planes, the only way to get from place to place, and you couldn't go overland, was by boat.

Here are the tracks of hurricanes in 1893, a famous year for NYC in hurricane annals, and 20 years before 1913.

A.) This could be one of those 25% chances and it the above posts also say something about a growing buldge and earthquakes

B.)Volcanic eruptions can affect the climate if it is major.

C.) Preciise, I wonder who is going to be in iceland recording an eruption in 1918 or 1816 lol just joking. Mount Saint Helens was a 5 and that was a big deal.

D.) How are there so many hurricanes in NYC back then but there hasn't been one in like sometime to affect NY in present time.

[gravitylover]

Weee, that #4 track would put an awful hurt on NYC/LI now.

[Clifford]

A.) This could be one of those 25% chances and it the above posts also say something about a growing buldge and earthquakes

Yeah,

I think I had found some of the bulge and earthquake data.

Earthquakes, to a large extent are caused by the natural, seasonal glacier growth and retraction.

The accounts that I had found was that the bulge was growing at a rate in cm per year.

Mt. St. Helen's bulge was growing in feet per day.

However, if Katla erupts every 50 to 75 years.

And we haven't had an eruption since 1918.

Then we're probably due for another one.

I'm not holding my breath though.