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There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme. So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating. That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago. In life we go one day at a time. Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive. 12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS.