There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme.  So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating.  That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago.  In life we go one day at a time.  Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive.  12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS.