ILoveWinter

One T storm after another in Manhattan. About to get hit with the 3rd or 4th one today! (I’ve lost count)

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice October weather today. Won't get many days like this, wish it happened during the week vs weekend though. 

Wish it happens during October, this is garbage for June any way you slice it 

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can't get much worse for mid June 

So frustrating during the weekend, terrible.  I guess I'll be heading to Caribou, ME to avoid jacket weather lol.

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Lanternfly numbers are actually down this year so far anyway.

Don't they start coming out in July though?

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Central Park is 57 degrees, colder than the stations on the east end and the ones getting rain lol

Oooooooook

Manhattan is the coldest spot in the area ahahahahahaha

Montreal 81, Boston 76…sux for us

Such a garbage pattern. Crazy that today will likely be the warmest for 10 or more days.

58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I remember that day. Serious back door. I dont think ive ever seen mid 30s and mid 80s at the same time in CT, that was wild.

We were only in the 50s here with a forecast of 70

 

I agree, the gradient was remarkable. I was in the upper east side visiting someone when the front came through and within a few minutes there was a 20 degree difference between where I was and my apartment in the upper west side.

19 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I'm more impressed with the 85 high at EWR and it's still 82 there right now.  That's got to be record territory for March. 

 

Newark is down to around 55, temp collapsed in the past 20 or so minutes.  

Nearly a 30 degree difference between the upper east and upper west side in manhattan, crazy 

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

in this case it's either near 80 or 40s and drizzle

Agree, will take temps in the 80s vs cool and damp, especially considering it’s on a Saturday. 

10 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

It's crazy that CPK almost nickled and dimed its seasonal snow to DC's considering those nice events they had this winter (and LGA even has more)

Was the GFS and EAI more accurate because it  handled that lobe in the west and the confluence better or was it for other reasons? Wondering if they did better by pure luck or not. 

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Image

 

Not a biggie or anything but verbatim would be the biggest event of the season for the immediate metro (sad but true). Hopefully this trends further!

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and you can always predict how individual posters here will react as soon as there is the first negative run ( less snow) of a individual model after many positive runs ( more snow) - lets see how Upton and MT. Holly react at about 3:30 pm

I’m generally not thrown off by the movement of op runs 4 or 5+ days out but the agreement with many of the ensembles at 12z was a bit concerning. Plenty of time though, and no reason to panic. 

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The trend out west is really bad on the eps.  That's what's worrying.  We need that to start reversing. 

Agreed, had hoped it was a fluke ops run thing that would be countered by the EPS mean.

Let’s just wait for the ensembles/EPS, op runs are prone to volatility this far out 

Just now, SnowLover2025 said:

BECS or nothing please! I want 30 inches and than spring could just come anytime after!

Verbatim that ICON run was a borderline BECS (to me 30+ puts us within the range in our area). That’s why it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible!)

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 2015 was still 10 inches so plenty of snow.

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 2015 was still 10 inches so plenty of snow.

Yea mostly earlier in the day, still was well below expectations

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No we haven't 

Honestly tho it’s not even a sure thing even as the storm is upon us…Jan 2015 still gives me nightmares! That being said this has some tremendous potential and will admit I’m excited. 

Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news. 

Op runs this far out will always be more volatile. Ensemble means are the way.

54 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The Delmarva has been a magnet all season long except for the one storm that targeted Florida with the heaviest snow (never thought I'd ever say that).

Patterns tend to be sticky, it’ll snow where it’s been snowing 

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like Manhattan, Bronx, and north Queens will get fringed, would be surprised if Central Park eeks out more than 1” from this. Looks like very light rates over the western and northern part of NYC, 

Won't venture to guess what we will end up with but I wouldn't call it light in the UWS right now

Snowing in the UWS, just starting to stick on colder surfaces 

Is it a similar confluence set up from earlier in Jan that’s preventing the northward movement?