brooklynwx99

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ideally would we want a slightly different ridge placement and a bit higher heights out ahead?

the ridge spikes right over ID/MT as the trough amps, which is what matters

so much more phasing there, great to see

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS AI looks outstanding....BM

EPS AI OTS.

lol what happened to the EPS, man

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

THIS is what I want to see to get in on this....if this is real, and other guidance follows suite, I'm in.

can already tell the euro is going to increase wave spacing early on at 12z. should be better and then you're literally only left with the CMC OP. we shall see

but yeah, agreed. the AIFS is deadly with synoptics

that trend in the ridge out west is encouraging

AIFS going for broke too

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively. 

lots to like here IMO

lol

10 hours ago, qg_omega said:

One of the worst performances from our "highest skill" model at under 120hrs out

lol hold that thought

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Have a hard time buying that.

me too. just weird seeing the most skilled piece of guidance we have end up that aggressive. something will give by tomorrow

this would be quite the flop from the AIFS-ENS

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

And the EPS were a whiff, which is why it wasn't posted 

spread tightened up

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Energy over Michigan dives south this run that makes the difference , probably can just toss this run 

if only it wasn't the highest skill model we have at this range

why even look at the euro do this shit when you have the AIFS

well, euro is a full phaser

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI waaay south.

its ensemble has consistently been farther north FWIW

this can work. vort is a lot more defined than 00z

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well

sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here 

11-12th is more coherent on the EPS, pops a few coastals

lol models have no clue. this is the run to run change, not regular 500mb

looks like any warmup is pretty brief with the -WPO building poleward... with some Canadian ridging / low NATL heights lingering, would remain conducive to some marginal threats

thanks for the kind words, snowman. always appreciated

hopefully we see a continuation of this cold and wintry pattern… the beating the SPV is going to take likely helps us there