brooklynwx99

GFS on an island… usually ends only one way

even with said AK vortex (which seems suspect), it’s still cold with a -NAO popping up. this would still be serviceable for a while, and this seems like the worst case scenario through the 10th. EPS and GEPS are much colder with +PNA

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS and GEFS are in a model war for mid-month too now. 

 

 

 

 

 

i like to use the GEPS as a bit of a tiebreaker in these instances… def more EPS-like

like seeing that -NAO over the top, really helps out

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

i’m fine with leaning a certain way based on certain reasoning. you’ll be wrong at that range sometimes, it is what it is

the storm also hasn’t verified, though 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark As you and @Bluewave suspected…..
 

this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough

58 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok

On 8/18/2024 at 12:30 PM, qg_omega said:

No reason to not go warmest winter ever, Nina + -PDO = 4+5+6 all winter

personally, given the pattern, i would find something suppressed and washed out more likely than something as amped as the GFS

way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

AI still offshore. 

don't worry, if it's wrong, it'll tick 10 miles NW at a time for twenty runs in a row

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I thought the 6z EURO and 6z AIFS made steps to meet each other in the middle (what we want). Would’ve loved to see a few more frames of the 6z EURO. 

i like seeing the more consolidated trough along with the deeper press from the TPV into Maine on the 06z

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different.  A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

I agree that they don’t look as good… given the MJO progression, I feel like the EPS makes more sense. we’ll see

Pacific jet is trending more equatorward towards mid-month, leading to a better wave break and more poleward ridging near AK… this makes sense given the MJO 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If all else is equal, but it allows for other factors to overwhelm...just as weaker ENSO does. That shouldn't be prohibitive to an intensifying PV and the development of a PT.

true. I think that Pacific trough is transient as the momentum from the poleward jet extension pushes into AK. then, as the MJO continues progressing, it wouldn't be surprising to see another equatorward extension... that period will become clearer over the next week or so

I think we warm up for a week from like the 10-17th... what happens afterwards is more dubious

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BC version has it entering the COD on Xmas eve.

if looking at RMM, the left of the COD is usually a cold signal as well

Just now, Terpeast said:

It looks like this is our first window (I'm on the very very southern edge of it so not expecting much). After this first window, the PNA looks to go pretty deeply negative then rise back to neutral-ish by mid-month. Then we should get another window sometime after that.

yeah, the poleward extension should make things rougher for a week or so, then it should become more favorable again after the 15th as the MJO orbits

even then, the TPV being nearby and a cold source region won't make it impossible to get lucky

this is a pretty obvious colder shift. SE ridge is squashed, potentially opening up a risk for accumulating snow for the Northeast mid-week. can thank the more robust -EPO for that

the trend towards more of a wave break in the Pacific might make the first week of the month interesting... more of a -EPO, which displaces more cold air south. combine that with some lingering vorticity in the SW, and overrunning opportunities may present themselves

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I mean if that MJO forecast verifies, it will be a weird Pacific H5 for what the MJO is. Something to watch to see if that happens: MJO amped in 7-8 and a -PNA/+AO pattern

I would argue that the models are underdoing the Pacific jet and + heights near the WC and AK given that kind of tropical forcing

unless the MJO can never get into 8, which I'm sure I'll be told

16 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

For december, one would definitely want to be north of I-80. Even here, probably still dealing with rain from time to time. 

 

the TPV elongating like that into SE Canada should present opportunities for overrunning

the lack of a prolonged SPV disruption lessens the risk of blocking this month... maybe late, but who knows this far out

overall, looks pretty meh for the Northeast into mid-late month. the -WPO and TPV in Canada should continue to present snowfall risks, especially into New England, but large storms look unlikely as long as the NAO remains positive and the PNA negative

should see the PNA rise later on in the month as the MJO continues to progress 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another interesting tidbit about the modern climate that @Stormchaserchuck1has pointed out is the tendency for -NAO intervals to coincide with -PNA.....which is important considering there should be some -NAO episodes early on. I think there was also a graphic he posted concerning the negative correlation for the following December after a strongly +PNA (last year)....not to mention the GLAAM being significantly more negative than last year. This dove tailed nicely into my expectation for a rapid recovery of the PV and lead into a January reflection event triggering a mid season +TNH pattern.

you usually get the wave breaking needed for -NAO when you get a huge cutter... you usually need -PNA to accomplish this

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes.

So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. 

Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. 

I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. It has to show up in the short term in order to be believable.

11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

 

 

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about? 

sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous 

not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition 

explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts