brooklynwx99

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Correct

If only

Fail 

I'm still depressed over this.

dude that was two weeks ago, damn

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO-AI already completely lost it

it's an operational model at 10 days out. it will do that, as will any other OP at this range

all ensembles maintain a signal for the 9-10th, just a matter of phasing. worth keeping an eye on

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GEFS showing the split flow and the short wave associated with the low we’re tracking

OP was a disaster but it was way too slow with the shortwave vs euro camp so probably wrong

Here is GEFs vs euro Ai, it’s smoothed out but you get the idea





.

GEFS has quite a signal with lots of strong coastals

26 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z GFS had the wave now.




.

the transient 50/50 and -EPO do help this threat. the synoptics are there, it just needs to deliver with a phase

next shot at something more substantial is probably the 9-10th as the cutter drops the TPV down and a wave tries to amp into the colder airmass with the transient PNA spike. after that, it's likely curtains outside of NNE with some warm weather on the way

Just now, mitchnick said:

Heisey, et al., Pivotal has updated AI and now has snowfall. Here's the 6z run.

oh god please no

the AIFS humping is going to be unbearable for a while. past 5 days it isn't as good as any other model, really

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I came in into this forum right after the 3' run for NYC and opined that it would be captured later and trend NE....it wasn't recieved well.

he shits on every storm threat that has ever formed

4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

And this is happening one way or another...

 

Just not for us. Don't get what you're saying. They never had it for more than a few cycles. I don't really find this to be that stunning of a model collapse when it was over 5 days out.

i saw people even comparing this to Jan 2015. that was on a totally different level of fail. not even close

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

120 hours.....capitulation was Saturday. Saturday AM everyone woke up naked in a hot tub with their laptops in hand....by Sunday AM they were all lying tits up.

yeah, trust me, it was one of the more stunning model collapses in the last several years. absolutely sucked

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.

yup, I will reassess in 2030 or so. the sample size is just too small and we could get blasted a few times to close the decade for all anyone knows. people also thought the massive WC ridges from 2013-15 were going to be the new norm. how laughable that seems now

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

i mean, it is, but 48 hours is a bit much. the models capitulated and it totally blew, but it was at 120-144 hours out. that happens. we're in agreement that it would be a different story if we were inside of three days

god, i can't wait for an effective El Nino. hopefully next year

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out.  At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.

 

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

This is not necessarily true and @brooklynwx99would tell you that himself. 

yup, some people never understand that good patterns just increase the odds for snow, not guarantee it. we literally just saw that play out this week!

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol yeah ok. More pretty maps 

anything of substance to add? no? 

no wonder why mets barely post here anymore. doesn't seem to be an issue in other subforums

we'll have more chances into March. cold with -AO/-EPO persisting

yeah, it is absolutely not over

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Getting some more arctic blocking showing up again, but let’s not get congrats north Carolina again please 

I'm banking on shorter wavelengths and a weak WAR to help us out here

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya looks the same honestly too far west , this weeks ridge just hit absolutely broken down, barely a ridge by Thursday 

this is quite a bit healthier. like seeing the -AO over the top too. pretty solid

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

@Rjay lol

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022

the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Maybe someone more intricately involved in NWP can chime in, but my perception from my NWS career (started in Feb 09 at OKX) and my hobbyist phase going back years before that, is that modeling has grown less stable at closer in lead times on the most important details for system evolution. I think that global modeling systems are better than they've ever been at nailing the large scale pattern at long leads, but these large swings inside D5 feel more common to me than back in the 2000s and 2010s.

My theory is that it's partially related to faster flow due to CC and partially related to ever increasing resolution (high resolution garbage in still = high resolution garbage out; ie. errors in those high res details, such as convective parameterizations, reach many of the members which all have the same physics and then amplify). I have no idea if I'm right on this, but I'm def interested in hearing from others better versed than me.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk
 

yeah, my guess is it has something to do with climate change. maybe higher velocities are messing with modeling or something like that. combine that with higher res, as you said, and it's a recipe for large swings

though Feb 2021 was modeled very well and i can't imagine CC has accelerated that much in the last 4 years to mess with modeling that much. I don't want to overattribute either

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was trying to remember the last time all models had a blizzard 5 days out only to completely lose the storm. It doesn't happen often. Granted we didn't have consensus for long and not every model showed the same thing but yeah its pretty bad to lose it in half a day and miss by 100s of miles

pattern is about as good as it gets. every model had a MECS with the GFS joining the party 120 hours out and the EPS locked in. gone in 12 hours. it's just cruel at this point

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

24 hours ago the Ukie had this storm basically sitting on the Jersey shore lol 

i know people unrightfully bash models, but I'm going to. absolutely appalling performance from D5. should not happen