brooklynwx99

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warming. Not warm. It gets pretty warm after 1/7

probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month

however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

…..

i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every time the EURO has a shitty evolution, it's right...never fails. It's seemingly only ever wrong when it's desirsble.

yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that.

Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo. 

yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I was just going to comment on that.  Forget the weird solution for sensible weather, the set up is loaded...right out of the KU book.

this poses some promise

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS depicts an an impressive west based -NAO with a TPV lobe underneath. Pacific isnt perfect but hints of some energy taking the southern route and some sort of interaction/phasing with the NS around the 6th. Details sketchy as expected but a signal for something is there.

 

yeah, starting to get excited. that's legit

and the pattern is only becoming more favorable as the PNA rises and EPO drops

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Radar returns have moved east of Morris County, but it's still snowing steadily. Looks a bit like an inverted trof. I suspect it's low level stuff below the radar beam. Let's keep it going a few more hours!

yup, still light-mod snow here, measured 2.4” 10 mins ago… very happy to end up getting close to 3” when all is said and done given how the event began

looking squally

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea i saw i just posted that, NAM, 3K, and RAP as well...

associated with the main vort moving through, makes sense

RGEM is doing a better job with the main 700mb FGEN axis than the NAM, which looks too far north

looks like we're seeing 700mb WAA/FGEN get going, as well as some nice PVA... we should see snow blossom over the next couple of hours

the vort trending more amplified is actually good… we get mid level forcing along with the WAA, allowing for more liquid initially (which is when most of the snow falls, anyway)

34 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.

yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies

i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed 

it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy 

NAM has the main vortmax over upstate NY rather then into the metro like the euro and other models… i suspect that’s erroneous 

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I don't love how close we are to the cutoff line on some models and future trends can easily doom us (or it can trend better) but that's pretty much a given with most storms here. 

gotta be near the mixing line to get the best snow 

really looking good for the metro’s first warning level snow in quite some time. we can see 1-2”/hr rates as FGEN pushes in during the evening, especially NW towards 287

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Unless there is strong coupling between the stratosphere & troposphere it really does not matter.

 

same exact thing happened last year, though it was even more impressive with a lack of a SSW. gives more credence to prolonged blocking with the EPS reloading in the LR

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It probably is a result of smoothing and averaging, but that would be something pretty damn good to work with...if we got the TPV to dig exactly as shown. There really is no way to see each member, is there? The OP doesn't dig as aggressively and we would probably need to see the OP more in line of the ENS to really make this potentially noteworthy. I'd be curious to know where each member stands 

that isn’t even the animation of the run though, that’s the trend for the same valid time. it’s so drastic it looks like the same run