brooklynwx99

EPS is even more amped than 00z. insane for a mean at this range

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Yeah, I knew the 0z Euro would be a fluke.  Had no other model support.  We prob won’t get what we want in today’s run, but I would like to see it get closer.  I guess the Euro showed that it could work out. 

I would argue the GFS is the one with little to no support. GEPS, EPS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all had amped solutions. GFS is the only one that’s pretty flat

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

EPS has trended back to its more exotic look from a couple days ago at 00z

EPS is sick 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is super amped. Waiting to see if there is precip type issues but don’t care I want to see this amped up 

what a monster

honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS will be suppressed 

there is some interest

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe @brooklynwx99can post a movie to chnage the vibe?

nah i could go without being the scapegoat for less frozen water falling from the sky. i'm good

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

just a massive signal here

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

10 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

I'm generally a big fan of your posts, but this sentence appears to represent a bit of a blind spot.  We thought things were going to be idea in those other instances as well.  IF things develop as currently forecasted, then the pattern may be ideal...but we've seen over and over that things often don't develop as forecasted.  Until we're in relatively short range, it just doesn't seem as though the models can reliably forecast the pattern, any more than they can reliably forecast individual storms at long range.

 

all we can use is the data we have right now. if things change, we can change our view on the pattern. right now, things look really good... we'll see what happens over the next few days. it's worth it to temper expectations but also acknowledge that there is heightened potential for a significant to even major storm around the 20th 

the EPS is wild again. stronger -NAO and 50/50, too, which I like. strong confluence is always a good thing here

i mean, what is there to say? it's all there lmao

ECMWF is nuclear

this ring a bell? i’m not gonna say it out loud

GEFS liking it

Just now, snowman19 said:

December, 2022. February, 2024

December 2022 had -PNA issues and Feb 2024 never really got going with the block never forming. this is inside of D10 so it's no longer pure fantasy and the PNA region is more favorable

24 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024. 

the block for Feb 2024 was tenuous and it never really formed. late Feb 2023 was in March, so it could have delivered, but it was too warm. and I don't recall March 2022

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

Just now, rgwp96 said:

It always looks good 10’days out though

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rains to Maine on Euro. Too bad another perfectly-timed PV modulation  prevents another big event. 

That 2/20 event looks awesome though, lol. 
 

could be the one. this is a highly favorable look with the decaying block

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That may be our best shot this winter so far of getting a decent coastal track but we would want to see it within 120 hrs.

agreed. want to get into that D5-6 timeframe but for now, it seems as though a lot is aligning. hopefully we can pull together a thump for the NW posters with the 15-16th. unfortunate to see the confluence weaken in the worst spot