brooklynwx99

CMC is actually more amped than 00z lmao. blizzard verbatim

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Skynet still whiffs

i’ve noticed that the AIFS can be just as wrong as other models but its shifts are just less violent

for example, it can still move 100-200 miles in a few days, it’ll just do it in small, consistent increments rather than two big jumps 

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ?

probably some of both, mostly some too far east. however, that is an extremely aggressive mean at this range 

EPS with a 6-8” mean for NYC

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I've been tracking storms since you were probably in grammar school and I've never seen consensus on an HECS like this 6 days out, let alone even 3-4 days out.  It's incredibly exciting, but we all know how complex and uncertain NWP is, so assuming we're going to see an outcome like what we just saw from the models is a bit unrealistic - but possible.  It's the "possible" part that's so exciting.  Thanks, as always, for your efforts and for those from the other mets/experts.  

the ensemble support and general pattern favorability is what makes this so exciting IMO

EPS is even better than 12z

EPS is insane. better than 12z

EPS is sick. actually better than 12z

slight amplification trend on the GEPS, lol

bit of a trend, no? EPS is looking great, btw

all four models have a hit. wasn’t expecting that

can’t believe we went four for four tonight 

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Can someone post Euro…hearing it was a good hit as well!


.

yeah, CMC is phasing

CMC is going to phase too

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks more like the Euro suite 

yeah, much more like foreign guidance

massive change on the GFS

massive change on the GFS

just a massive change on the GFS

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wait why are we talking about pulling the plug? 12z EPS looked great.   AI and GFS aren’t too far off.  Still 6 ish days out. 

lol you’d think this was an awful winter for the area. let’s ignore the EPS, 12z OP ECMWF, GEPS, UKMET because of the GFS and AIFS

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I wish. It's further south and east again. Barely anything northwest of I95 north of Fredericksburg. 

it’s been flopping around for days. not any better than any other piece of guidance 

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z a little too progressive for my liking compared to 12z.

that isn't progressive. PNA is stronger and there is a strong closed low over MN. the low will pivot and bring PVA up

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro looks pretty similar to Ukie at 144. I also like how the kicker backed up a bit, beyond 144 probably fun


.

ECMWF looks just like the 12z EPS. nice to see

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. Until or gets a grip and stabilizes for a few runs with one solution I’m not going to swear the gfs much. I’d be way more upset of the other guidance which has been more consistent went that way 

if this was the other way around with the GFS/GEFS only showing something and everything else relatively unenthused, the GFS would be launched to Pluto

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually don't have a problem with that look out west on the EPS....interesting. Its a little too compressed back east, though....hopefully that relaxes a smidge priro to ignition.

that kicker actually helps pump the PNA for a brief time as the trough amps. pretty common before it flattens things, but if the spark is already lit it doesn't matter