brooklynwx99

guidance is still screaming for the 24th as the Pacific trough retrogrades and the -NAO lessens

here's why I like the 24th... the Pacific trough retros and you have a big amplification signal downstream as the block decays and confluence lessens. it's a recipe for a big storm

ECMWF is sorta like a quicker version of the GFS. CMC is way more shredded than both

17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it?  I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along.  I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?

open flow, confluence, and southern stream vorts. cold air isn't an issue with an actual storm

love this look

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is slowly getting to the blocking the other guidance has. So it’s shifting this weird solution south. In the end once the gfs adjusts to reality I don’t thing this evolution can work for us. The boundary is going to be much further south than the gfs thinks because it’s not resolving the block correctly. In the end the only way I see the PD threat working is if a NS wave can dig in behind the stj wave and phase/buckle the flow and bomb it up the coast.  There are a couple NS waves that could do it. Euro control was very close last night but missed the phase by a hair. 

CMC is setting up for later

bruh

my thought is "holy shit"

8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather. 

seems more like it dug its heels in

Just now, TJW014 said:

GFS has a southerly bias around this timeframe. This will tick northwest 

lmao the GFS is very amped, it just has more confluence. its progressive bias is not on display here

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That will run into a brick wall.

yeah I was not expecting it to really dig in like that. CMC did trend in that direction, just not as extreme

jesus

brick wall of confluence. SNE about to get smoked

pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on

pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on

pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That look on the GFS doesn't fit anything really.

Not the MJO, not the teles; alone vs other guidance.

Sure it could be onto something, but odds are strongly against imo.

well yes, I'm just showing why it has what it has. I don't think it's correct

25 minutes ago, met_fan said:

This map looks off, right? (Tweeted by NWS Buffalo)

this is such an atrocious colorbar

just a note... the GFS is farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models is actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that. 

granted, it's farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF

so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models are actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing

like this is where it's at. really nice evolution here, and it makes sense

PNA ridge spike, weakening block, and southern stream vort slips underneath the flow

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad.

On the northern fringe but its frozen lol

potent signal as the Pacific trough retrogrades is still showing up. this is the best shot at a MECS IMO

years like 2010 and 2016 had a strong Pacific trough and potent STJ like this one. seeing blue colors off the WC isn't some death knell if you have blocking and Alaskan ridging

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

EPS correcting weaker with the ridge out West day 10 compared to the old day 15. So we may need to rely on short term improvements which may not show up until under 120 hrs. But the flip side of this is things keep getting pushed back. Hopefully we can put something together before the season ends. But there are no guarantees when the Pacific is this hostile.
 

New run

Old run

 

i wouldn't say that anything has gotten pushed back at all, it just looks like there's less spread along the WC. members differed on where to place the greatest positive anomalies, and they ended up more into AK, which is better for cold air supply, if anything

the 50/50 ULL is also stronger. i don't see an issue here

whoops meant to say that the Pacific trough off the WC will retrograde into more of a typical Aleutian low. whatevs lmao

i'd probably lean towards a ECMWF/UKMET blend at this point, makes the most sense. CMC looks too diffuse and rainy while the GFS is likely too far south