brooklynwx99

pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump

pretty legit trend in the confluence for late week. Fri-Sat is def a timeframe to watch for a legit thump

the trend west with the ridge axis around the 30th is nice to see... hopefully that continues

nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken 

nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.

I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. 
 

The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP. 

lol what the hell is the point of that then

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that westward trend has put us from toucans, to shots of cold, to having room to dig these shortwaves and curve something up the coast at our latitude and a little blocking will help with that. I think I saw a fantasy run yesterday in the extended that retrograded at our latitude as well. Everyone up here starts getting anxiety now when the NAO starts getting too negative, but I feel like this may be a time we’d want it…unless everyone is happy with quick hitting light-mod events. 

one of the only things that can really alleviate a shit Pacific with -WPO is a strong west based -NAO… just shunts everything west and changes the Pacific alignment 

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Still trending on the 00z.

if you retro that Pacific trough a bit more and allow for the ridge axis over the Plain to shift 100mi towards Montana, things become very interesting 

the 23rd and 26th are both pretty interesting as vorts come over the top of that C US ridge. could be some WAA thumps

47 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

pretty significant block showing up later in the month, but the Pacific is kinda trash 

need to see if the block can become more west based and exert its will on the pattern, perhaps a forcing more of a ridge bridge up top. either that, or the Bering Sea ridge nudging east into AK

regardless, nice to see an Atlantic block develop... just need to see some other factors become more favorable for legit shots at snow south of the M/D line

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, are there any analogs that have that look? I can’t recall that. It reminds me of those stagnant farts that just stays in the room and doesn’t disperse. Just persistent ass.

nah i can't, which is why I think things are going to be one or the other. either more of a trough over the NE or warmer like the old GEPS runs. that's a weird in between

these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing

for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That pattern still makes me ill. Of course somehow we have this massive central US ridge amid a massive Bering Sea ridge and Greenland ridge. 
 

Honestly, we’d be much better off with a SE ridge with that depiction,  but somehow we have the Elephant Man look in the US. 

story of the last few years. one would have to hope that:

1) the Bering Sea ridge ticks east more into AK so you can get a bit of a ridge bridge going, or 

2) the -NAO becomes stronger and more west based, shifting that ridge west along with it (also allowing for more of a ridge bridge)

we have also seen models consistently overdo E US heights, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a trough trend deeper as we head closer. we'll see

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm becoming more convinced over the years that snow around here is completely random luck that can happen any winter. 2016 was a warm turd except for the week prior to the storm and another short period of cold around valentines day. 

ehh, 2016 was not luck. there was a very strong west-based -NAO that developed, which is a classic KU signal

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We need blocking. These NS waves are cute for a day or two, but this area needs a region-wide snowstorm with overrunning moisture from the south on top of a slow moving, dense dome of arctic air blocked by a downstream traffic jam.

sir, this is a La Nina

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Quick check on the ensembles today looks like a solid -pna pattern for at least the next two weeks with no credible snow threats for the MA. Perhaps some cold shots over the NE and MA. But we’re gonna have to wait this out a bit before the scand ridge retros into a GL block around new years. 

yeah, i'm pretty confident that we're going to see the NAO drop rather significantly as the Scandi / N ATL trough retrogrades... the WH MJO forcing is a strong precursor to that, as it helps wavebreaking occur in the N ATL

EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah there really is no reason to panic or anything yet. It's already been established the surface may not be totally reflective of what is going on in the mid-levels. What we can gather from that period, however, is that it could be active. How those pieces fall into place...way too early to worry about that. 

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1