brooklynwx99

very good agreement on an anomalous, west-based -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and vort digging into the Rockies. if you're looking for a bigger storm, this is the timeframe to watch. makes sense, as retrograding Scandinavian blocks often lead to larger storms when they decay

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We may never see an ensemble output like this again, it’s time to start cashing in on Saturday night though.  Then here’s the pattern at hr 360 lol 

pretty stunning blocking signal around that time. vort digging into the Rockies, confluence in place, and a rotting west based block

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mint?

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

just going to leave this here

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right but it shows the downside and to be fair, last couple years arctic blocking has had a tendency to link up with the se ridge.

Still cautiously optimistic…

i get your point, but could you imagine the weenies thrown if the ensembles showed the TPV west and a ridge popping over the east and someone posted a loop of the D12-15 OP showing a cold pattern? they would get clowned

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

as we talked about a few days ago, we going to  apps runner/cutter city if this PV evolution happens

yeah, why use the ensembles when you can use a random OP run

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna need that with the -PNA, but that could be fun.

the -PNA is temporary. that trough in the west swings through and it's full steam ahead

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern.   Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day. 

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

the 10th percentile for NYC on the EPS is like 10”. anything but skewed high 

lol what the fuck

EPS has 24” mean snowfall for BOS

this is with like 12-18” on the mean already btw 

absolutely obscene 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The mean for nyc total by day 8 is 13 inches 

and this is before this pattern sets up. absurd

absolutely locked in on the GEPS and GEFS. rotting block in place over the Davis Strait and elongated TPV in SE Canada

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ensembles absolutely lit up for next week, My god. What a stretch incoming. 

trying not to be hyperbolic but it's insane. how is the mean that lit up with the block not even having decayed yet? that's when you usually get the big dog

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

this is the pattern during that mean. the block is still strong over the Davis Strait. the largest storm from this pattern likely hasn't even occurred yet and NYC/BOS still have 18" on the mean. wild

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

this is the pattern during that snowfall mean. not after the block breaks down, which is when you'd probably get your largest storm. it's beyond lmao

Just now, T. August said:

CMC ens not bad - more snow after this hour but figured this captured our threat window next week.

if this is "not bad" then expectations have gotten ever so slightly inflated

GEPS is ridiculous. has 15" on the mean with this pattern still in place

the shift in confluence is pretty notable. the evolution is much more similar to that of a Miller B than a SWFE at this point

euro keeps weakening