brooklynwx99

well, here we go. not sure when exactly the blocking is going away

this is pretty striking. retrograding block and a legit 50/50 in place... vort over the Four Corners is making its way under the block

18z EPS had almost 1" liquid into Boston and the GFS and CMC both have nothing. what a world we live in

it's odd, one would think that the EPS would be "worse" than the GFS since there is less stretching, but that is not the case at all. such a weird setup

lol. if the 00z holds i will get more excited

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ive noticed it a lot this winter especially but over the past several years. If 00Z doesnt slide back E, ill be a lot more convinced this is real. Want to see some consistency, lot of waffling right now...but we're still in that range.

woooosh wolfie

yeah if it holds at 00z it's real

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It seems the last 48 hours the off run euro runs are west of the 12/00z. Not really sure why, but it’s been consistent like that

yeah, there has been a 18z euro tax. not sure why. but fun to see

they literally made the euro run at off hours so that it could be less accurate and more annoying to use. what a concept

nice trend with the jet streak over ME

EPS tripled precip from 12z lol

huge move by the EPS

euro was quite a bit better with the confluence and overall alignment of the low

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

you guys deserve this one, what a monster. probably ending up with 10-11" down here

this signal has really grown since yesterday

yeah, we have seen this signal grow since yesterday

i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM

very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

What do you think of the pattern? For Sunday you said that it was a good pattern for a MECS but implied there was a cap. Is there no limit to this pattern?

if the Pacific jet does not overwhelm things and push the trough axis too far east, then no, not really

no joke, this pattern is how you get a storm like that. two distinct vorts and a massive block rotting in central Canada encouraging a phase. the flow slows to a crawl

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet.  Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago

lol how is this like every other SWFE in the last 5 years? temps are in the teens and you can get 2" per hour rates

the fact that the CMC is a clear amped outlier and still delivers sig to borderline major snow is a testament to how favorable this setup is

CMC looks like a clear amped outlier so far at 00z... even then, it's still 6-8" for the metro with some mix at the end, which shows how good this setup is

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep I’ve seen it before where it’s been 10 degrees outside and we get tiny needle and sand flakes. 

i doubt that happens with this kind of mid-level forcing moving in

the 10th percentile on the EPS is a significant event. take a breath