brooklynwx99

yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing 

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

mid level magic probably from Kevin to ORH over to Boston.

yeah, these love to amp up the fluff factor with sloped 700-500mb FGEN on the NW side of the precip shield. that would likely verify 4-6” along that corridor

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s definitely nice to see a solid euro run, however, the gfs and icon along with the gefs being a whiff should give everyone pause, especially given what we’ve seen in this flow 

the GEFS is just going to do what the GFS does at this range 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if you dig those heights on the southwest side, it will help that TPV lobe to drop into the void and pump up downstream heights to get the moisture transport northwest over land. 

personally i’m wondering if there’s an inflection point where things blow up. 18z euro was teetering, honestly. we’ve been trending that way for a while model cycle now 

euro is a nice moderate event, comes in more amped with the TPV leaning more southwest 

could tell it was going to be more amped around here. PNA is better and heights are lower farther SW

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks better than 12z

yeah, vort really trying to buckle here

euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream

similarly nice changes on the EPS

if that vort moves hundreds of miles SW you have a MECS on your hands. not even exaggerating (not like that's going to happen)

with the GFS and CMC looking more amped and the ECMWF and AIFS largely holding serve, I think we're trending towards the first plowable snowfall of the year for the metro. let's give it a couple more days, but things are looking good

honestly, perfect recovery from 00z

if you get the TPV that amped, you can def get 6" of snowfall on 0.4" liquid. the fluff factor is usually strong with these systems

AIFS is a borderline SECS. TPV is more amped

CMC making the same shifts as the GFS. TPV is more favorably oriented

yeah, GFS made a shift towards the ECMWF with a more favorable TPV orientation

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is still a standing wave at the MC (phases 4-6) until that changes, this is going to keep happening 

if you're talking about pure VP, there is literally almost always a standing wave there. like for decades

not surprising that we're seeing a warmer interlude with some -VP contaminating things in the IO and western MC. this quickly changes back to strong WHEM forcing in late Dec, likely signaling a flip back to a more favorable pattern after Christmas and into the New Year

lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

lol what a joke out west from the CMC

EPS and AIFS-EPS both perked up

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ideally we get a little finger fronto well ahead of this as this tries to round the bend in the OV. Of course that means initially only a narrow area has fun, but good way to maximize snowfall. Can see some signs of it.

same general premise as 1/6/22 if you recall. that was a nice little Arctic wave

this is why it’s sometimes not as simple as worse PNA -> weaker storm… the TPV is better oriented and allows the vort to curl more on the ECMWF