brooklynwx99

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

just a massive signal here

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

10 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

I'm generally a big fan of your posts, but this sentence appears to represent a bit of a blind spot.  We thought things were going to be idea in those other instances as well.  IF things develop as currently forecasted, then the pattern may be ideal...but we've seen over and over that things often don't develop as forecasted.  Until we're in relatively short range, it just doesn't seem as though the models can reliably forecast the pattern, any more than they can reliably forecast individual storms at long range.

 

all we can use is the data we have right now. if things change, we can change our view on the pattern. right now, things look really good... we'll see what happens over the next few days. it's worth it to temper expectations but also acknowledge that there is heightened potential for a significant to even major storm around the 20th 

the EPS is wild again. stronger -NAO and 50/50, too, which I like. strong confluence is always a good thing here

i mean, what is there to say? it's all there lmao

ECMWF is nuclear

this ring a bell? i’m not gonna say it out loud

GEFS liking it

Just now, snowman19 said:

December, 2022. February, 2024

December 2022 had -PNA issues and Feb 2024 never really got going with the block never forming. this is inside of D10 so it's no longer pure fantasy and the PNA region is more favorable

24 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024. 

the block for Feb 2024 was tenuous and it never really formed. late Feb 2023 was in March, so it could have delivered, but it was too warm. and I don't recall March 2022

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

Just now, rgwp96 said:

It always looks good 10’days out though

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rains to Maine on Euro. Too bad another perfectly-timed PV modulation  prevents another big event. 

That 2/20 event looks awesome though, lol. 
 

could be the one. this is a highly favorable look with the decaying block

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That may be our best shot this winter so far of getting a decent coastal track but we would want to see it within 120 hrs.

agreed. want to get into that D5-6 timeframe but for now, it seems as though a lot is aligning. hopefully we can pull together a thump for the NW posters with the 15-16th. unfortunate to see the confluence weaken in the worst spot

this is so sick lmao

the 20th was always the most favorable window as the block fully matured, by the way

if this isn't anything but a highly favorable setup on the EPS then some of you are being a bit dishonest. everything is in the right spot with the decaying block over central Canada linking up with the developing +PNA

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Asking for a friend @brooklynwx99

considering it will snow three times in a week for some in this subforum including this weekend, I would say right around now

there absolutely is the potential for some fluff factor in the northern area of the precip shield... factor in a strong 250mb jet and 700 FGEN and it wouldn't be shocking to see an area of enhanced, higher ratio snow 

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The block is to far north and the pv is not south of Hudson Bay. You need that with a -pna and se ridge 

that -PNA is early on. the 16th is when the trough fully swings through... we can see a snowfall there if the confluence is strong enough but I was just showing the block at its strongest. when it breaks down around the 20th, the pattern continues to become even more favorable

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

personally, I find it very hard to believe that there isn't a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures