brooklynwx99

seems like we’ve trended the TPV more east, allowing for some mid level ridging to sneak into the Lakes and allow HP to fill the cracks. helps the airmass out a lot

god that is so close

lol you know you can get rain when a benchmark track now, right? and like 10 years ago? where do these people come from 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh see the euro is another solution that might work and kind of deliver something high-end advisory, low and warning. It actually meanders the cut off down south so that the confluence weekends north of New England after day seven and allows a weak low to come up the coast and bring some snow. Then the trough sharpens in the plains and perhaps tries to deliver something after that timeframe.

yeah, this is the change you want to see. the NS needs to provide confluence, not try to phase in

well, this is exactly what you want to see, NS is acting as confluence and not interfering with the main wave

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

lol KUs don't grow on trees. of course you need all of those factors in place for something that should happen once a decade

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This x1,000,000.

March 2018 is the crown jewel of this kind of warming, everyone likes to bring that absurd MJO pulse up haha

there's really no reason why the pattern will just magically fall apart as we head into Feb... +EAMT should keep the jet extended along with tropical forcing moving into the CPAC

the recently stronger SPV is also having zero impact, as the earlier SSW downwelled and is leading to a -AO that will persist into mid-late month. and if anything, a strong MJO pulse into phases 6 and 7 into Feb will encourage weakening of the SPV, potentially allowing for a SSW into mid-Feb. that's way out there, though

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March.

If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

lol this kind of logic has only surfaced in the last few years

EPS has been trending towards a more amped trough in the SE, hopefully that continues and we can get a potent low. there was def a camp of amped EPS members last night

also, more of a signal on the EPS for the 15th... makes sense with the PNA spike

lol for the love of god, please verify

if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warming. Not warm. It gets pretty warm after 1/7

probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month

however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

…..

i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every time the EURO has a shitty evolution, it's right...never fails. It's seemingly only ever wrong when it's desirsble.

yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro still generates a system on 1/8-1/9 but it’s a bit strung out and weak going almost due north and scraping eastern areas. It doesn’t take much mental gymnastics to see that thing being much stronger and more coherent. The PNA ridge is pretty amplified which is going to want to force a lot of energy to pile up around the base of the trough. 
 

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved 

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that.

Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo. 

yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I was just going to comment on that.  Forget the weird solution for sensible weather, the set up is loaded...right out of the KU book.

this poses some promise