brooklynwx99

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya looks the same honestly too far west , this weeks ridge just hit absolutely broken down, barely a ridge by Thursday 

this is quite a bit healthier. like seeing the -AO over the top too. pretty solid

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

@Rjay lol

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022

the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Maybe someone more intricately involved in NWP can chime in, but my perception from my NWS career (started in Feb 09 at OKX) and my hobbyist phase going back years before that, is that modeling has grown less stable at closer in lead times on the most important details for system evolution. I think that global modeling systems are better than they've ever been at nailing the large scale pattern at long leads, but these large swings inside D5 feel more common to me than back in the 2000s and 2010s.

My theory is that it's partially related to faster flow due to CC and partially related to ever increasing resolution (high resolution garbage in still = high resolution garbage out; ie. errors in those high res details, such as convective parameterizations, reach many of the members which all have the same physics and then amplify). I have no idea if I'm right on this, but I'm def interested in hearing from others better versed than me.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk
 

yeah, my guess is it has something to do with climate change. maybe higher velocities are messing with modeling or something like that. combine that with higher res, as you said, and it's a recipe for large swings

though Feb 2021 was modeled very well and i can't imagine CC has accelerated that much in the last 4 years to mess with modeling that much. I don't want to overattribute either

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I was trying to remember the last time all models had a blizzard 5 days out only to completely lose the storm. It doesn't happen often. Granted we didn't have consensus for long and not every model showed the same thing but yeah its pretty bad to lose it in half a day and miss by 100s of miles

pattern is about as good as it gets. every model had a MECS with the GFS joining the party 120 hours out and the EPS locked in. gone in 12 hours. it's just cruel at this point

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

24 hours ago the Ukie had this storm basically sitting on the Jersey shore lol 

i know people unrightfully bash models, but I'm going to. absolutely appalling performance from D5. should not happen

AIFS is actually a hit. shocked

EPS was a pretty notable improvement. stronger ULL and less confluence

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, but the precipitation field was more expensive. I wonder if that’s more because of the ULL passing through? 

almost certainly. probably some weird double barrel action in there too that leads to the model plotting the center east

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Rockie ridge looking stronger at hr 96 

ULL more amped too

Just now, Allsnow said:

EPS out to hr72 the ridge is a bit further east but confluence weaker. I think we might see a slight improvement but nothing drastically worst then 18z imo 

it looks more consolidated with less confluence. should improve 

Just now, Allsnow said:

Slow the kicker down and you are back to a huge hit 

pretty notable improvement. this is teetering on a knife’s edge

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Get that trend out west to reverse and it's game on.  If it doesn't this will slip south and east and we'll end up near the fringe. 

FWIW, 18z was a start. this is a nice change with less destructive interference out west and a more amped ULL

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh


.

that isn't all that surprising at this range

so much better

given that the AIFS is a machine learning model and it does not have much of a frame of reference for this kind of setup, it's no surprise that it would struggle

lol

lol

AIFS is... a hit! well, sorta. it's shifted hundreds of miles west in the last two runs

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably 

the AIFS moved pretty far west at 00z. and I don't think the graphcast GFS is any good. but I agree that nothing is set in stone.

I'd take the latter camp over the former, though

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I hate the word “tucked”. It implies “tucked in to the coast” which means rain for city and coast. A tucked in solution is bad for much of the forum (not north and west). 
 

a crippling blizzard for the big cities won’t be “tucked” it would be a track inside the benchmark

tucked inside the BM. idk i've seen it used like that before quite frequently

all I can say for the ECMWF is holy fuck. that is all

2 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Tucked with mixing/rain/dry slot?

no, just 1-2 feet of snow

ECMWF is a tucked bomb

UKMET is an absolute ripper