brooklynwx99

if this isn't anything but a highly favorable setup on the EPS then some of you are being a bit dishonest. everything is in the right spot with the decaying block over central Canada linking up with the developing +PNA

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Asking for a friend @brooklynwx99

considering it will snow three times in a week for some in this subforum including this weekend, I would say right around now

there absolutely is the potential for some fluff factor in the northern area of the precip shield... factor in a strong 250mb jet and 700 FGEN and it wouldn't be shocking to see an area of enhanced, higher ratio snow 

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The block is to far north and the pv is not south of Hudson Bay. You need that with a -pna and se ridge 

that -PNA is early on. the 16th is when the trough fully swings through... we can see a snowfall there if the confluence is strong enough but I was just showing the block at its strongest. when it breaks down around the 20th, the pattern continues to become even more favorable

personally I find it very hard to believe there isn't going to be a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

personally, I find it very hard to believe that there isn't a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures 

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures 

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Meh. Get it within 5 days

lol this is much more fitting for the NYC subforum than the MA subforum where you often post

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs back to shannigans

amazing Irish pub

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/16 back to being a big snow hit on GFS....that one is prob gonna be all over the map for a bit.

block is really doing its dirty work here. fits the pattern honestly

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS south 

the GEFS is a fancy OP 80% of the time so this is not surprising

for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yup looks amazing rn

can't believe that we have three legit chances for snowfall before the most favorable part of the pattern even sets in. pretty nuts and I'm excited

for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL

for anybody worried about suppression like what happened in Jan after the 15th or so, this is a much more classic block caused by a retrograding Scandi ridge... it's where it should be over the northern Davis Strait rather than south of Greenland. this is why those retrograding Scandi highs are so favorable - the orientation of the block is better with the TPV elongated over SE Canada rather than the N ATL

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah let’s rip 4 feet in February and then go March 2018 except not bust on two storms. 

kinda wild that the rippage on the GFS is while the block is still maintaining strength. the big dog isn't even popping up yet

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ll bite. IF that look is actually real, again, big if, because we are talking about 2/19 here, it would be primed for a KU event up the coast in the 2/20-2/23 time frame. The caveat obviously being that’s it’s 14 days out and the EPS has shown long range pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mirages that suddenly disappear in the past (i.e., last winter’s long range phantoms)

luckily there is potential beforehand for snowfall. that's just when the pattern ends which is a ways away

very good agreement on an anomalous, west-based -NAO, 50/50 ULL, and vort digging into the Rockies. if you're looking for a bigger storm, this is the timeframe to watch. makes sense, as retrograding Scandinavian blocks often lead to larger storms when they decay

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We may never see an ensemble output like this again, it’s time to start cashing in on Saturday night though.  Then here’s the pattern at hr 360 lol 

pretty stunning blocking signal around that time. vort digging into the Rockies, confluence in place, and a rotting west based block

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mint?

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

just going to leave this here