BoulderWX

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Steve d has 4-8 for NYC

Hahahahaha. Mark it down 1-3”

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is warm and amped. This storm is done for the coast.

Went from promising to nothing .

 

Yup! No surprise. Hopefully Catskills or poconos still get something. If so, I’ll be there. 

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Still all over the place, yeah today it went NW but yesterday went SE. Won't be fully sampled until overnight.

Today’s been relatively consistent sans the CMC and we know what that’s worth. Unfortunately don’t think more sampling helps us here. Hoping to be wrong. 

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm talking about all the runs from this week so far.

Focus day by day. They were relatively consistent for 3-4 days. Today we saw a complete reversal as energy gets sampled. Writing on the wall. Not even sure it’s worth roadtripping for this one anymore. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Models are all over the place with this storm. That's the beauty of tracking and losing sleep like I have .

They actually haven’t been. Relatively consistent minus the GFS today and now Euro. Writing is on the wall. Some will see snow but low amounts and not nearly as widespread as anticipated. IMHO

Went from 9” verbatim on Euro to 3” hahahahah. This is why I made my previous comment. 
 

UKIE brought me from 10 to 3 as well. lol

Just now, mannynyc said:

Euro appears to be coming in warmer as well

Lovely… I’ll let it play out 

Just now, jm1220 said:

This probably won’t be a high end storm where there are many amounts 12+. It’s moving quickly and won’t be strengthening much when it gets to us. Nothing to slow the storm down. Where it’s all snow it’ll probably be 6-12”. 

I’d take 4-6” - I’m in no way expecting double digit snowfall. 

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think any place NW of I-287 is as good a spot as any for this one. It’s been consistently hit with 6+ on all the modeling for 2-3 days now.

Hoping you’re right my man. I’d love 6” and I don’t care if it rains 2 days later. Let me just see some snow fall on a weekend (or any day)

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well I don't really know your location but if you're nw of 287 you're in a good spot 

Morris county NJ - Morristown

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why is it definitely not happening? 

Sorry that was more being glib because I’ve been burned so many times, sorry for the confusion. That said 06 and 12z took a big step back on the higher amounts. We’ll have to wait and see and again sorry for the off the cuff remark, didn’t mean to confuse anyone. 
 

never like being in the bullseye for several days when it’s this far out. 

Been Jack potted every run last night in NNJ.  Definitely not happening but I suppose it’s nice to track something. Also it’s a weekend storm so if somewhere does get 6+, worth a drive. Good luck all

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Every map has me in the bullseye for 6-10. As most of you know me, that doesn’t make me feel an ounce of confidence. 

People so pumped for an event 5 days out. Don’t worry about specifics right now. In fact that shouldn’t happen for many until Friday. Tomorrow night and Thursday things should distract crystallizing. 
 

I’ve been in a great spot for the last 2 days and I take that with the biggest grain of salt and shot of tequila. 
 

something to track. Nothing more. Nothing less. 

Storm on the table. No worrying about semantics now. Will check back wednesday or Thursday 

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Crushes everyone 50 miles west of the cities

I’d take that in a second. Road trip weekend. 

Take a model run series off and come back to exactly your prediction. Supression depression. 
 

I know we’re a week off but overwhelming guidance shows a souther slidern. Some seas will see flakes but this is definitely not a snow storms lol for NY metro 

GFS remains relatively consistent at 00z and 06z. Consistency doesn’t mean accuracy but nice to see a storm several runs in a row. 

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Some decent runs today from the GFS. Honestly would have taken any of them, but this one would make up for a lot a of disappointment the past two years. 
 

still putting chances of over 3” snowfall at 15% this far out but I’ll take the potential as something to track 

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a solid High to the north would think someone will get a good hit with that feature 

Ahhh if only…

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

except we’re tracking a storm, right?

 

Too many guys that don’t know what they’re talking about speaking in absolutes on here.

and for what it’s worth I agree with you. I think it is toast, but it’s January and we’re not out of it yet.

 

Never said there won’t be storms to track, if you’re going to talk about me not knowing what I’m talking about and talking in absolutes it would probably be best if you were accurate in your depiction of what I posted. 

Literally said I was glad he was finally accepting that there won’t be a major pattern change the first half of this month and that in order to get a cold storm along 95, everything would have to line up exactly right and there is nothing to support that scenario. 
 

That’s all. 

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

Welcome back to reality! First step is acceptance and good to see you’ve checked that box! 

1 hour ago, kdennis78 said:

Anyone have a good pulse on what to actually expect Tuesday night through Thursday morning (Dec. 27-29)? I'm in Morris County and I'm sweating bullets over the rain coming. How much are we looking at in a practical sense?

 Nothing at all to worry about. Looking at about .50 - 1.00”

If you want any real chances of a snowstorm before February all bets point to the Rockies. Anything on the east coast including NE will be a thread the needle through timing situation. I think we have a few chances in February but I will go on record as saying I don’t see enough of a pattern shift to produce any meaningful snow along the east coast, particularly the 95 corridor until the last week of January into February. 
 

would love to be wrong and wilL admit if I am, but not seeing anything that gets me excited about a colD and snowy January 

Up to 4.25” as back edge pulls through with heavy downpours. Only one gust of wind recorded, topping out around 15mph