White Gorilla

4 minutes ago, NYC10023 said:

on the bright side at least we have the temps in place and aren't stressing bout the rain/snow line. 

Yeah, enjoy the cold storm, that mix stress will arrive in Feb and March 

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Early evening, and not so much the models, it will be location of the low and development.

Nowcasts replacing forecasts 

Everyone, enjoy a nice snowy and cold Saturday tomorrow no matter how much you get.  We will be dreaming of a day like tomorrow 6 months from now when we are sweltering under high dews. 

4 minutes ago, Juturna said:

Time for people to jump off the ledge again. Could be bad data, initialization, the double barrel making it chase the more east low which may not even exist. It's nowcast/shortrange time and let the pieces fall where they may.

The run to run swings are just not healthy lol, take a blend.

Watch that upper low tonight and see when it closes off.  The key! 

As much as I want more snow, I will still be happy with 3-5 inches up here in Dutchess.  Will be a beautiful scene. 

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Given current OBS - Euro does not appear to be lining up. Unless I am just wishing here.. Can someone else confirm I am not crazy ?

Has the trough gone neutral yet? 

3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Not convinced of any global shorts...  This is eerily similar to the 2018 setup.  Baking in the sun here on BB in ocean county, nj.   Waiting for feedback result error.  This system was always going to be a nowcast.  Everything looks the same to me still. Going to look through and see what changed, but it still looks almost perfect for coastal and 20 mile differentials for banding.  This coastal is about to explode.  

Coastal gonna go postal 

It doesn't mean the Euro is correct. It could be, but let's factor in other data sources 

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

35 inches in Highland Mills my favorite storm of all time.

I believe we were the jackpot area for that one in Orange County, the Monroe trained spotter came in with 34. There were places in the Catskills that were in the 40-50 inch range. I think Monticello recorded 38.

Of course what made it extra special was most of New England getting rain the whole time. I still feel guilty for taking such pleasure in that to this very day.

I would love a repeat of that.  

If only the upper low could close off farther south and west 

Did someone here in the interior forget to pay the snow bill and now reduced snow service this weekend ? 

Fringe city.. I feel like there's a huge party out there and we are not invited. 

I have a feeling late Feb or March will deliver a foot plus for us here in the interior woods, a reduced version of March 2017.  Just a hunch and some Nina climo thrown in.  

45 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

My optimism earlier in the week does to have been misplaced. Oh well. I'd roll the dice with a phasing/amplifying trough like this any day of the week.

I was on the Walkway this morning at twilight. The floes and brash ice were floating north with the tide, the air was dead still and delightfully frigid, the billowing steam from chimneys across Poughkeepsie was backlit by the glow of dawn. I'm glad to live in a place where even a really crappy winter still looks like winter.

I like your positive perspective 

It is what it is.  Just gotta accept.  Then we move on. 

33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Last night a bad night for our sub forum. All hope not lost but hanging by a thread. Just not our storm. Really never was consistently and doubting that changes. Tonight runs should be telling. 
 

Bronx warned us. Wish I listened before I got emotionally involved. Filing for divorce from this storm, whatever the hell stupid name they give it, tomorrow morning. 

I hear you.  This one's gonna sting as my relatives in New England swim in deep snow.  This is not our winter, especially here just East of the Hudson.  Still have only 10 inches for the season so far.  Unless things radically reverse, shades are down. 

Seeing the trends clearly now. Held out hope until this morning. Enjoy the big snows 95 folks and East. A few inches here perhaps. Congrats New England.  Where I live and some others here well north and west, the snow drought will look to continue.  Let's see if we get our turn in Feb or March.  If not, better luck next year.  Really tough to get a forum wide 12 plus. 

On 1/24/2022 at 10:50 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Why am I already getting the feeling this supposed beast will be a no show again by tomorrow morning. Is it paranoia, or just preparing myself for the let down which odds favor? I swear if SNE gets buried by this and we're flurrying under filtered sunshine Saturday I'm done. No more heartache, I shouldn't be affected by winter weather to this degree. I was sure I was going to outgrow it by now.

Yeah, I got a bad feeling too for our neck of the woods.  1-2 inches here with 15-20 inches 50 miles east of here.  Let's hope for the best but prepare for the worst. 

12 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Now thats the tuck I am talking about! Yea baby ..give it to me!

Wham bam, thank you NAM? 

I am prepared for any outcome... from cirrus to blizzard.  No expectations.  Just roll along with what is and what will be.  Tracking is still fun and interesting. 

The windshield wiper s on 

Best we not emotionally react to every waffling run this far out.  Just keep monitoring and reporting like you guys do so well here.  

48 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

They should have sent a poet.

Twinkle Twinkle Little Snow.....