Cold Rain

Yeah, the models keep shifting NW.

Yeah, I'm actually seriously wondering if it's going to rain here now.

Made that drive many times. If this storm wound up more, I wonder if it would crash the 850s sooner? Or should we root for it to be weaker?

I'm here...just hoping to see a burst of heavy snow in the daytime.

Models are run by specific mathematical equations that have to make assumptions about the state of the atmosphere. These assumptions result in model "biases" over time (i.e. the NW trend -- out in time, models forecast the storm too far to the east. They "see" the atmosphere better as the lead time decreases. As the "see" better, they "correct" their solutions/storm tracks. Usually, this corrects NW, as the modal bias is to model the storm too far to the east). Humans can observe these trends over time, recognize them, and adjust for them in their forecasting. Until we get to a state where the entire atmosphere can be observed and modeled, models will always have certain biases. It's up to us to recognize them and use them to our advantage when forecasting.

I'm worried about the NAM and RGEM, especially the RGEM. Is there anything that could legitimately happen to cause the mix line to be farther south?

It's not. If the model shows you mixing, you can rest assured that it will be more mixing for longer. It never ever goes the other way.

Yep, can't seem to get any trends in our favor. Mixing will be an issue for most of the storm. I'm still going for only one inch of snow on top of 2 inches of sleet in my area.

I hope Pack got some sleep last night or this morning. It's going to be hard to sleep tonight listening to heavy sleet hit the window all night.

Pack, what did our 6Z RGEM look like? Any good news there?

Just a small 30 mile shift SE. Peanuts. Just once!!!!

I think we avoid rain but the snow ain't coming back. It never does. I've lost the Canadian now. Euro up next.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that I will not get more than an inch of snow. Congrats north and western Wake.

Haha true! Time for a GFS fail now!

Well, that's disappointing.

When does the RGEM come out?

Boom!

Is it more amped than 18z? I'm guessing now that mid Atlantic is in play, we'll start seeing board crashes.

Haha awesome. Just remember, we got this one all the way to 30 hours. We were close.

Completely agree, BUT I would feel a lot better if the NAM ceased with the warm west routine.

It'll be a Lakes cutter before you know it.

Most certainly. This is the sanitarium. We're concerned about everything in here. We really need Pack and Widre in here.

We can only hope!

GSO is going to be digitally sleeting heavily by 18z tomorrow.

That's the spirits!