poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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Radar filling in nicely in W MD...for the Northern folk....
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As of 9pm... 1.5" otg with .12" qpf. Roughly 12:1 Currently, mod snow 28/27
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Really nice flake size and rates right now. mod/hvy snow 28/27
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29/26 light/mod snow falling with the current enhanced band moving thru. .25" so far.
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EPS with the shotgun effect next weekend. Actually, I would rather keep this this amped and ride the line for the next few days....cant deny the trend this year is to push systems slowly south and we have to will them back north. Would prefer to keep some breathing room....
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yep...not quite the excitement up this far but I think our fail scenario (in my mind) of 1-3" is becoming less likely.
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LWX keeping expected snowfall the same but upping the max and min. Good trend up to game time. I am a little on the outside looking in but increasing my bar to 4".
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Not a bad look at this range!
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One aspect of this storm that is still evolving is the Sunday eve/night timeframe. Most models have a norlun type trough that develops as the coastal is moving ots....I'm not sure if it's actually a "norlun" that develops but it's def an extension of the trough. Some develop this over the area...some models like it to the west of the area extending down into CVA...and some are weak or nothing. The ICON shows how we can pad some numbers if this feature works out....
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Plenty of fantasy storms and arctic air on the 18z gfs op. We wont hit every time but there will be no tracking shortage for the foreseeable future.
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06z gefs took a nice step toward a coastal solution for the 20th storm. EPS is taking a west track with a jump to the coast at about our lat...but also has a nice banana high over top.
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Just horrific....
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If we can stay neg for the next several days the 30 day avg will drop like a rock....some big positives about to drop off. As PSU stated...it looks like a bout of neutral or positive here soon but with another crash later should place us squarely in a nino state. The dominos are falling....
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Thru the end of Jan looking ripe....
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Just loop the 18z gfs and think that we could possibly have 4-6 weeks of tracking similar possibilities. There you go again with that strat voodoo stuff again....
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That run is unreal....or surreal. No let up thru the end of the run with just a classic pattern. A lot of late nights are on the way....
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Or...the best rates could stall in N MD as the factory does it's thing to our north....
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Agreed...The more moisture slug we can get up into the OHV the better we should do being further west. I have found that these WAA event moving from W--->E do pretty well around here. The mountains will do there thing but I can envision a 12-15:1 event out here with .35" qpf. Would = a nice event imo.
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Nice track on the gfs...inland NC at hour 66 instead of off Wilmington...DC might do well with the coastal
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Ever so slightly more confluence...but negligible imo. just run to run noise I think. 0z was just a little more consolidated on the h5 vort panel.... ninja'd!
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Looks about the same to me. Maybe a little less amped but looks to be setting up for a similar hit as 0z.
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- we just jinxed it
- helluvaway to run a torch
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Was gonna say the same thing...It is probably the NAM being the NAM but even more amped than 18z.
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That would still be an areawide 6" mean after D6. Def impressive... Saw lightning in the distance on the drive home today.....Sign of the change coming our way.
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Yeah...I have no interest in that panel. Unless....5 days later the pattern has relaxed and we are staring down a KU!
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A good example of too much of a good thing....Extreme
