poolz1

Almost 10 days out...I am fine with the gfs. It seems to be making baby steps each run in the right direction. We have gotten rid of the GL low that was on earlier runs and now made a move toward more HP in SE Can.

Yeah....Either the gfs is up to its usual games or the idea of blocking in that region is just being picked up on again as we get closer. H180 is even more robust...

Most, if not all frozen...

06z EPS with another incremental nudge in the right direction...A tick slower so will have to keep an eye on that trend as well. 06/00z

yeah...much better CAD signal....stronger high that holds on longer. The clown maps are misleading I think because it slowed things down just a bit and the run ends at 144...as you noted.

GFS not backing down on the mega NAO block as we near D10. A sight to see for sure.....

Got it...much appreciated. So, in determining the general idea of where the split flow is....flowing, you are looking for where the height lines deviate from that uniform look?

Curious...whats your take on the 06z GEFS? Same timeframe....with a more robust signal cutting under the ridge.

I know PSU and Bob have mentioned this several times..But that look at the end of the EPS run with the bagginess off the west coast and a signal that the STJ is undercutting the PNA ridge is money. LR caveats and all...but man that is a nice look.

06z gfs goes bonkers over GL....Seems we are getting some consensus on a stout NAO block that fades into an EPO ridge. But, it could just end up being a ridge bridge longer than what is currently depicted. Also notice a nice uptick in hits as the the NAO fades and EPO takes over. The looks across the board have me drooling! ETA: Trough axis on the LR EPS is sweet. Starts at hr300 and hold through the end of the run.

Little bit of a CAD in that image! Check out the ridging across GL at the same time...

EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold. I could care less if the bay freezes over. Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look.

Looking at the EPS D10-15 members...a lot of slow moving arctic fronts with waves moving riding the fronts. Some we win and some we dont. Obviously, ens arent going to pick up on a threat like they would if we had a miller A out of the gulf. Again, reminiscent of 14/15.

GEPS has the same idea at 12z...a nice improvement from an already decent 00z run. Hinting at a ridge bridge... ETA...slow typer...Bob beat me to the punch!

Can't seem to get the scan ridge to move ploeward on most op and ens runs.... But, the gfs gets the pattern out of the crapper through retrogression of the PAC ridge. Only reason it is notable imo is the eps showed this as well at 12z. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

@frd Ive been watch that evolution the past few days on the GEFS. If anything, the PV will be no longer stationary....makes a pretty drastic move and stretches somewhat past D10. Not moving too far away from the pole yet on those looks but I am just happy to see something...anything not remain stagnant in the LR. Euro looks to be in agreement thru D10 at least.

One mid range trend lately is the higher heights over the pole that have been trending stronger. This may give merit to the GEFS idea of a quicker transition as it already has the TPV out of the way when the PAC and or Scan ridge start moving poleward. As amplified as the flow has been so far this cold season it could get fun with cold closer to our doorstep. I dont need epic...just get us back in the hunt.

06z Euro with another step in the right direction. Stronger vort with a slightly stronger low close to the S NJ coastline. Would be great to back our way into a minor event....maybe more than minor for places closer to coast...

I think you are probably correct....even neutral may have a better response. I have a lot to learn in this hobby but these types of small details are probably my weakest area. Need to work on my ball of knowledge!

The nice looking vort pass has been there for several runs now for the D4-5 timeframe. The euro did pop a weak surface low this run and some light precip resulted. Just curious what is keeping a stronger low at the surface from forming...normally I would be excited for a panel like this but models have been pretty adamant with really zero surface response. Is it the lack of separation between the SLP off the NE coast and the closed upper low sliding under us?

I hear you...and I appreciate your last few posts and the time/effort you put into the research. I dont disagree with anything you said and the Pac ridge is a dagger without help elsewhere but from my perspective it comes as no surprise if the MJO is going right into the warm phases. Not that I saw that happening...I actually thought we had a good chance at cold phases for Jan. I understand the MJO is not the be all and end all but the Pac is responding just as it did last year to the unfavorable tropical forcing. So, with that said the only thing I might have an issue with is describing the upcoming pattern as a base state....seems like this year has no base state, imo. The silver lining here is that I think we are primed for a rapid response if we can get into the cold phases...as you noted, with the low solar, fav QBO and already seeing bouts of HLB this season. With the warm phases hopefully doing their work to disrupt the PV I think we could see that Pac ridge move east around week 3/4. Going to be a rough couple of weeks...or more. But nothing new to a MA snow lover.

The ridging across N Can started showing up on ens a runs ago and ops now have it...seems to gaining some legs. Could open up a nice window as it forces the TPV under it. This GFS run the TPV turn on it's belly creating a nice broad trough. Who knows how it will eventually play out but could even block something that amplifies.

This is a 7 day mean for the first week of Jan...A notable feature throughout the GFS and the GEFS is the trough east of HI. Maybe this could send periodic shots of a west coast ridge even while the HLs are extremely hostile. With the active flow and cold very nearby maybe we can get something to dig under us at the right time. Hints of this on today's runs.

The only thing good about today's MJO plot is that the models have been pretty bad with the LR forecasted phase....Both the GEFS and EPS take it back to the warm phases or heading toward them after a brief visit with phase 7. It's been the most ambiguous season so far in terms of main drivers...besides the +IOD i guess. I have no idea where the LR is heading...neither do the models and neither do the mets I follow/read.

Not a bad look on the ensemble...workable and an improvement over 0z