aggiegeog

Temps as low as 27 in East Texas this morning with a frost for the whole region. 

Smokehouse Creek Fire is now over 1M acres. The largest fire in Texas history surpassing the East Amarillo Complex Fire which burned 900k acres. 

The fire situation NE of Amarillo is horrible. The main complex consisting of Windy Deuce Fire, near Lake Meredith, and Smokehouse Creek Fire, started near Stinnett and now crossing into Oklahoma, has officially burned over 500k acres. If you measure the the perimeter of hot spots this morning from this complex you get something closer to 1.5m acres. There are other large fires scattered around the Panhandle also.

On 2/26/2024 at 8:34 PM, Stx_Thunder said:

Looks like Laredo is going to reach & potentially exceed its first 100 F mark of 2024 tomorrow (before end of February), looking at those latest GFS/Euro runs today. And seeing the actual high of 98 F today (even mid 90s in DFW) out there with all this ridging/subtropical high influence that’s been going on aloft since earlier last week.

It’s not extremely unusual on record in February for Laredo to reach 100 F, but there may be a 50+ degree difference further behind Wednesday’s incoming Polar or Canadian front, on Thursday.

Overrunning precip activity in the state late this week not looking impressive on models, but both GFS/Euro showing mid-level LRs will be steep Thursday night with rising PW ahead of some incoming mid-upper level southern stream shortwave energy. So can’t rule some thunder activity over the southern half/coastal region. But any severe storms with the front itself entering the state Tuesday night should stay east/northeast, this time. But, things could get more convectively active again with more severe potential starting early next week as it looks like the more active subtropical jet pattern from Jan - early Feb looks to be coming back at least to an extent in March.

 

 

Polar air mass intrusions aren’t really uncommon in the whole state during March and even somewhat in April, at least during the past 2 decades. I also recall the 2007 Easter weekend cold snap (which was more unusual as it got into the 30s in STX that Saturday night going into Easter Sunday). There was another notable one in 2004 Easter weekend and it was interesting both had decent elevated thunder events down here at night going into Easter Sunday.

Though I can definitely recall a number of March cold snaps during the 2010s. But most notably in 2014 (March 3rd to be exact), where that was an actual Arctic origin airmass that came into the whole state. It only managed around 40 F during daytime down here in STX (and solid overrunning low-level cloudiness), so the airmass was obviously very shallow. Though I do remember looking at the 0Z March 4, 2014 BRO & CRP observed soundings.

Not only that and even more interesting and awesome this time, there were actual (still elevated) thunderstorms (some fairly strong near the lower Rio Grande on VIL) going on around here in the abnormally cold overrunning environment. And north-northeast from San Antonio - SE/ETX (all sub-severe in the state as far as I can remember even though SPC was monitoring when they got going in the state that evening). As a stout mid-level southern stream shortwave was coming in from Mex. It was definitely cold enough aloft in ETX for all winter precip types (thunder sleet/graupel, snow, and freezing rain).

But seeing actual CG lightning bolts going on a couple miles just behind my backyard and 38 F actual temp outside down here…, man that was just crazy awesome.

There was also ample MUCAPE with that activity back then (around 1000 j/kg), to note as well. Not like these Low/very low CAPE severe events that have been happening in the state recently earlier this month and in January. Which could be concerning going into spring this year.

- - - - -

Here’s a snapshot of the archived mesoscale discussion SPC had put up for freezing rain that evening back in March 2014:

 

That early March 2014 In Tyler featured a night of heavy thundersleet followed by a day with highs around 20 and lake effect flurries.

The freezing line is pushing SE it's down along Hwy 80 into Wood County then up towards Texarkana. 

Would t be surprised to see a WWA for NW half of N TX and possibly expanded a bit SE from there. 

Temps in NE TX range from 6 to 15 this morning and shaded spots are still very slick.

Looks like Tyler ended up down to 13F this morning. My house got down to 11F in Lindale. Tyler is going to end up with 54 hours at 20 or below and by tomorrow Tyler will be around 95 hours below freezing.

NWS with the huge adjustment to afternoon temps here from 25 to 17F. We are going to go over 50 hours consecutive without temps >20F. Today will set the low max for the date which was 33, temp reached 19 early this morning before falling into mid teens for the afternoon. Today will be just the 4th Jan day ever on record in Tyler with a sub 20 high. Tomorrow has a good chance for the record low of 15 with a forecast of 12. Tomorrow has a shot at the record low max of 26 with forecast of 26. If the next front has can take better aim straight down the Plains the Sat record low max of 27 is reachable.

We are now at over 24 hours of continuous light snow. Only 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations so far here though. Did just have a heavier burst. The snow is falling from below the radar beam over here in our semi radar hole between FTW and SHV.

In Lindale got around 1/4" of mainly sleet. In between sleet showers have had constant flurries since yesterday morning. never got above 18F yesterday during the day.

Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded south in East Texas down to Jacksonville, Nacogdoches and Center:

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

LAZ010>013-TXZ149>153-151200-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KSHV.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T0000Z/
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Including the cities of Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, and Center
1210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations of less
than one inch, sleet accumulations of around 1/3 of an inch and
ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Louisiana and
east Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

We have been getting flurries and light freezing rain since about 8am. Roads getting slick already. Temp 16F. So far a glaze of ice and dusting of snow. Much more to come over next 24 to 36 hours. 

During most of the event my area along I-20 in East Texas will have a classic dendritic growth zone at around 500mb but a large dry and warm zone centered on 700mb then saturation but warm at 850mb with temps sharply falling from 850mb to the surface with full saturation. So low and warm cloud deck and precip freezing as it falls equals freezing drizzle when rates are low and sleet when rates are higher. Some snow as the cloud deck cools towards tomorrow morning. QPF here seems between 0.15-0.35" which should be around 1" of mixed accumulation. Precip starts late morning tomorrow and lasts until midday Monday.

52 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

12Z Euro seems shifting the battleground a bit north which can be a problem for Dfw if other model to follow. But i think all of them are trending a bit drier in the last 3 runs. 

I do not notice a significant drying trend and maybe even an upward trend. I am NE TX focused admittedly. Seems like a south trend is starting as globals recognize they have the air mass boundary too far north. I would expect this south trend to continue on globals. Thankfully meso scale models are coming more into range to clear things up. A touch colder and the most north of I-20 stay snow for most of the event which could see a few spots hit over 6" of snow. 

Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

It was amazing watching that line blow up from nothing to near severe in less than 15 minutes.

NWS SHV starting to buy in further as expected given model trends. FTW is not as confident but the western edge is much more questionable so that's understandable. FTW also introduced a few snow showers tonight up north.

Now getting into early stages of Hi Res models being within range and as expected timelines are accelerated significantly. Now looking like a midday Sat arrival of Arctic air for DFW and reaching the coast by Sat night. Models have begun the expected south shift with heaviest precip axis now along I-30 vs I-40 previously. I still see room for another shift south. Looking like I-20 corridor and north may luck out and see sleet quickly turning to snow. That means nasty mix for Central and SE TX. Would not be shocked to see a secondary bout of high ratio snow Monday afternoon across N and NE TX. Extreme cold Tue and Wed mornings with some sub 0s possible in areas with significant snow cover. Brief semi warm up before another Arctic blast late week. Some may not even get above freezing during the mid week warmup.

Euro has been very consistent with the ice event for at least NE TX and it looks like the impact area is expanding as models see that cold will progress south faster than previously modelled. GFS and Canadian are joining the party recently. This looks like a legit event with widespread 0.1-0.25" accretion. I am hoping that northern areas will get the 850mb front through quicker so that they can transition to sleet and even snow earlier than modelled.

11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I might said that too soon. Both 12z Gfs and Cmc are showing some icing for DFW. Cmc is actually quite strong on that. I think it's a bit concerning at this range to see some model convergence especially if they trend.

Models definitely are trending towards a bigger event for the NE quad of the state. Still not looking like a huge event but temps in low 20s will allow for efficient accumulations and if freezing rain the slow rates over a longer time period would allow for significant enough accretion to cause issues.

I just found this thread I will start to post my thoughts. So far it has been a solid snow year though nothing crazy. I have a family place up near Sipapu and hope to get up that way again this winter.

Looks like the northern mountains will get another 6 inches tomorrow and a similar storm Sunday.

The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in a Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

Looking like many will see subfreezing temps from Sunday to Wednesday making this a 70+ hour event. Some potential for it to extend beyond that if temps dont recover before the next blast next week.

NWS SHV giving the winter storm some credence. Though the hedge by only showing 20% chance of mix Sunday night. This is a reasonable balance of giving public some heads up while sharing much more in the discussion.

A very strong cold front is expected to move into the region before sunrise
Monday morning. Widespread rain is expected to develop with this
boundary, and quickly change over to a wintry mix as arctic air
quickly builds in behind the front. The trailing 850 mb trough
should provide enough lift to keep the post frontal precip going.
There is the potential for this system to cause impacts across the
region, as temps will quickly fall into the 20s behind the front.
But, as we all know, winter weather is very difficult to forecast in
the south. With this still being 5 days out, we will continue to
monitor this potential event closely, as this forecast could change.
Regardless of the winter weather potential, we are still expecting
the coldest air of the season to move into the region.