snowdude

Wow! 10:1 ratios here. 

The new 18z Euro is NICE!!! This is 10:1

Feeling better about this storm. Watch for the typical last minute northward trends and possibly stronger coastal which could bring higher totals. The RGEM, HRDPS, and NAM looking pretty good. A good 3-6 inches from Salisbury to Cambridge to Georgetown, with 1-3 inches elsewhere. Mixing south of Salisbury and at beaches. Of course potential exists for higher totals. 

00z ICON doesn't look as good as 18z but can't live by each run. Precip shield not as expansive.

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All snow

That is way south and less amped compared to all of its previous runs. But still nice. 

4 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

I don't get tingly anymore. My ex detingled me for life. hey who can give us constant updates on this thing???

LOL!!

12z GFS and CMC:

Tonight’s EURO. Nice! 

Here.

Hey everyone. We had some nice snow here in Cambridge. Snow changed to all sleet late in the evening and stayed sleet through the end. Total snow of 1 inch, maybe a bit more. 

6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Dare i say the CMC did a pretty good job along with the Euro. The GFS never really had the precip getting passed South of Frederiscksburg. But I’m currently getting my biggest snow in the last 2 years

FV3 GFS did MUCH better than regular GFS.

Winter Weather Advisories expanded to eastern shore of Maryland now. 

A nice dusting, maybe more now in Cambridge.

Our winter outlook at 47 ABC. 

-Above average snowfall

-Colder than normal temps

-February being coldest and most active, but even December will have early snow chances (unlike a normal El Nino)

-Frequent coastal storms

Well well well.....this morning I was ready to jump out of the gate and dramatically bump up our snow map, but then I saw the 12z guidance today and the warm nose. Ah!

A very fragile setup indeed. I have SBY in 2-4" and areas just NW (Cambridge/Easton) in 4-8", so I did bump up totals a bit. I think whoever is under banding will truly win out. But a very close call for SBY south. Even southern DE may be in the warm nose for a bit. But these highly convective winter storms can overachieve and impress, even in March. Thundersnow is almost a guarantee in my opinion tomorrow in spots. So it's time to wait and see what happens!

Our current thinking.

Definitely does't help with the heaviest falling during the middle of the day. We're saying mainly sticking on grassy surfaces and there could be slick slushy roads. However, some snow looks to be heavy, and that could overcome some warm ground issues, especially north.

What a storm guys, what a storm! Measured 11.5” in Salisbury. 

Just now, Lowershoresadness said:

think we can overachieve to a foot?

With ratios in place I could see that. But I'm thinking more isolated spots could see that in heaviest banding. This is a monster storm. Could be surprised in the end (in a good way).

10 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

where you been bro??? we are lost without you

I know, right? Been off this site for a while for some reason. lol. And thanks!

13 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Dan is a great met, but he hedges his bets a lot and uses the rap model

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
 

Hey, the RAP looks great for our area. haha.

4 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

NWS has magnolia DE getting 6 to 10 inches of snow, that map looks computer generated.

I see you guys getting close to 6", maybe more as the low bombs off the coast. I was just a bit concerned with some dry air at first.

1 minute ago, SabreAce33 said:

I have a nagging feeling we get a big chunk of dry slot at some point.  @WxMan1 posted some images that seem to show the Eastern Shore smack between two areas of enhanced lift.  That's always a guessing game until things are just about rolling, though.

I was getting nervous watching HRRR today cause it showed dry air eating away our snow, but it's now trending in the right direction in terms of a good snowstorm. And yes, the eastern batch of moisture in Atlantic and western moisture in southwest VA will consolidate and radar fills in. I'm not too worried about dry slotting here in Salisbury. But dry air will limit some accumulation NW of town.

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Snowdude’s back- oh yeah!!

Yes! Sorry I wasn't here for the early December storm, but we nailed that one for Saliisbury.  

And I say 6-10"  

I don't love the RPM but here's its latest. Bullseye in Wicomico, Dorchester, Sussex counties on Delmarva.

I think a general 1-2 is a safe bet for Salisbury on north. Some higher amounts possible. 

Canadian is kinda pretty...

RGEM coming into range  

CMC, EURO, and GFS for this weekend. Trending colder. Some of this will likely be sleet/freezing rain. Gotta watch that chance.

Don't let your guard down for this weekend. Possible wintry mix to watch. May be too far north though.