snowdude

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

And you missed 2010. That year was epic. 3 big storms in late Jan and early February totaling about 45 inches in Lewes. 

We definitely have been on a great streak. Let's hope it continues 

I didn't totally miss out. I was in my senior year of college in Millersville, PA. We got hammered too.  I'm from VA so I've been around for a lot of our storms. I'm just "new" to the shore. 

I'm just surprised. Out of the four years I've lived on the shore, all of them have had above average snowfall. That's pretty rare here. Keep the streak going!

Looks like a warming tend for next couple weeks (on average), then hopefully some new cold and snow chances. 

I knew this storm would overperform. Congrats guys! 

It's time to watch radar, satellite, and follow the RAP, HRRR, and the RGEM especially. RGEM is doing a great job and it supports my overall thinking. Ratios around 12:1 unless temps can really drop which they're supposed to.

I'm here I'm here! haha.

There's going to be a sharp cutoff for sure to the NW. Ratios should be a bit higher than 10:1. There is some indication that the northern stream has slowed down and the gulf is wide open plus satellite looks impressive. Could over-perform but I don't like the GFS and how south it is - makes me nervous. Grr. Here's my latest thinking...

There's going to be a heavy band of snow develop during the morning commute tomorrow and we have watch for where it sets up. Latest information is showing it on eastern shore from Cambridge to Salisbury perhaps. Could lay down some good snow even though stickage may be tough at first.

1-2" is my call for majority of peninsula with exception to coastal towns of a dusting to an inch? Perhaps a heavier band of 2-3"/2-4" somewhere on the shore.

Dont look at the 16z RAP...basically nada for SBY

 

eta- 17z looks better, and its the extended RAP so its out of its range a tad. It also tends to run warm, but the warm temps going in and the short window are a concern.

Temps will be an issue, but can the column cool with heavier rates? It's going to be a challenge and a close call.

My latest forecast...

I'm thinking BL temps are going to be very borderline here and accumulation will be tough at first. But I think with decent rates and cold enough air we will see a period of snow. Also, the cold front is slower than forecasted and this MAY cause a bit more of a NW trend which would bring heavier precip into the area and also shift the precip access closer to DC area. 

Congrats folks. 6z rgem. Go to hour 36.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020406&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

Wow, this is a tough forecast. I am saying a slushy 1"-2" in Salisbury especially on grass. It's going to be tough to stick but if we get the high snow rates like some models are indicating then we could get more. I mean, it's still 62 degrees right now in Salisbury. 

Latest hires NAM 18z...trending snowier. Shows as much snow as euro does for Salisbury. The question is, will this trend continue? Is it real? And how much of a role will borderline temps and a warmer ground play?

I posted this to my Facebook earlier in regard to the Thursday night possible snow. Give me some LIKES

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1112770772088832&id=150205931678659&notif_t=like&ref=bookmarks

What are your thoughts on the system on Thursday?  NWS has us in St. Mary's in the 30-40% range.  Looks like we are on the northern edge..

With the AO being pretty positive during this week, the cold air will be tough to get unlike this last storm, however, there looks to be just enough cold air where there may be some accumulating snow if this system trends west, which there is a chance of. 

Right now I'd say about a 20-30% for the DC area, 40-50% chance along eastern shore. Stay tuned for sure...

About 10 inches in Cambridge, MD.

Very windy with moderate to heavy snow falling as heavy echos push through Cambridge, MD. Temp has been steadily falling from 28 down to 24.

Where did you see this?  Neither the WSW or my point forecasts reflect that.

 

Also, would that not put us in Blizzard Warning territory?

Impressive. Conditions have been colder today...

And no, it won't put us in blizzard territory just because of snow totals. We need the wind speeds for that which I personally believe we will be in for at least some time. I mean come on we will be getting 40-60 mph gusts. Maybe it will be expanded for blowing snow? We will see. But don't hold your breath, it's Wakefield

Roads becoming completely covered in Cambridge, MD. Moderate snow. Eye-balling probably a quarter inch or so. 

Amount of snow expected to be on the ground according to HRRR by 11pm with rain/snow line still south of Salisbury. Probably a few more inches before switch over. 

I wonder what model they are using that's basing their change

Probably the RPM (tv met model). Plus GFS and NAM showed lots of mixing during 00z runs last night, but shouldn't panic on one run yet.

Well, models ticked NW from what I'm seeing...this is disappointing. I know we're not getting the historic totals like DC, but it would be nice to have a foot...

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Yeah it is worrisome, but hopefully it's just a blip and a wobble. But the NW trend is a real thing, it happens a lot during these storms and that's what worryies me. 12z today and 00z tonight will be big runs.

Here's what we are thinking at 47ABC. I'd say it's pretty conservative. Lol

Right now I'm thinking the front end thump will be where we see the most snow. Probably 4"-8" in Salisbury before changing to rain and sleet. Could get another couple inches Saturday evening/night when it changes back, maybe more especially if dynamics remain strong and a possible deformation band sets up. Still have time to narrow everything down.

In all seriousness, I wish there was more talk about NHK and SBY in addition to DCA/IAD/BWI/RIC/CHO

Yeah, totally agreed.

I have a feeling here in Easton it's gonna whisker close between snow-rain-snow and sleet-rain-sleet.  I'm hoping this thing turns out more like what the Euro ensembles are showing than the op.

I think Easton will see quite a bit of snow. More than Salisbury and areas south of you. Yes, some mixing does look likely.

Also, mini heat wave next week?

GFS is downplaying highs and likely wrong, as ECMWF and GGEM are much warmer.

NWS agrees: FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

hey southeastern MD, southern DE, and south NJ folks any updates for how the hurricane season is looking for our specific area??? any info would be greatly appreciated

Most likely an inactive season or at least a boring season due to developing moderate to strong El Nino, but you never know really. NHC puts out their official forecast next week.