KPITSnow

On one hand, I agree, and in this case since the storm was approaching east to west moreso, you have a better idea where it is going.

however, what do you do in an Irma situation where a difference of 200 miles in where it makes the turn can be the difference between a landfall in the Carolinas and going into the gulf? 

Just now, e46and2 said:

why?  we had an 85mph storm that changed lives forever.  no analogy is 100% accurate, but it's a valid comparison for those who think this is a completely diminished threat.  i think there is too much black and white here, when these things are always gray.  no, it will not be a cat 4 (or 3) at landfall.  it also won't be a non-event.  those who do lose life or property won't care much that this storm didn't meet its destructive potential.

That is why I am laughing at them. They are downplaying it because they hold Sandy as a badge of honor. 

I’m laughing at all the NYC posters right now.....

32 minutes ago, ag3 said:

@Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing.

 

God, I can’t stand this, and is why I hate the internet...everyone thinks they are an expert. 

It is like the sports fan that is convinced they know more than the  coach/manager/GM. No, you do not. 

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

 No ****. It’s goig to be a weakening category 1-2 storm and likely landfall east of forecast, IMO. Closer to Moorehead.

You’re bittercasting. You are annoyed it isn’t hitting nyc and are coming in here whining about it. 

Just now, ag3 said:

It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago.

 

I’m sorry you’re disappointed. 

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. 

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Threat has been decreasing all day. 

Sigh.....

4 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

The category system is the worst.  Surge should be the most important factor in rating a storm since it's the killer.

I think we need to find a way to better account for freshwater flooding. Harvey was cat 4, but the winds are not what caused most of the problems. 

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say it will be a reasonable success if we keep the death toll out of triple digits.  

Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this.

31 minutes ago, Animal said:

How so? The group think tank here is on point today.

let the storm play out first & stop being overly aggressive.

 

 

Floyd was a cat 2 on landfall..it killed 73 people in the US. 

Ike was a cat 2 at landfall, it killed 110 people in the us and did 30 billion in damage.

Isabelle was a cat 2 and did 5.5 billion in damage and killed roughly 50 people. 

Stop downplaying it. 

16 minutes ago, Animal said:

How so? The group think tank here is on point today.

let the storm play out first & stop being overly aggressive.

 

 

It isn’t so much a group think tank as it is with frustration of the general public ALWAYS wanting to downplay these storms. I expect that for the average joe but not from someone on here.

Even if this weakens to a cat 2, the surge potential is absolutely massive. So is the flooding potential. 

This isn’t a joke. It isn’t a time to sit there and criticize the media. I’d rather everyone be over agrresive if it means saving one life. 

3 minutes ago, Animal said:

It was a tidal surge that impacted coastal areas. Expectation is if live on or near water it does flood.

common sense tells you to get to higher ground. This storm the media hysterical is outrageously lol.

biggest storm in 30 years  I saw on the news.

going to be interesting to see the max sustained winds reported at an official station.My guess is 79 mph.

I’ll say it again.... when I’m on a weather board and see people complain about storms being overhyped I just shake my head. 

Why is it that it is always the same couple of posters that try to downplay every Hurricane? 

In this case, I see no one calling for rapid intensification, but I see the same people that downplayed Irma and Harvey doing the same here.

I know that “wishcasting” a cat 5 into your house is annoying (and frankly I don’t understand it) but so are all the posts saying this is overhyped and will not be that bad. 

14 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

he is quite frankly the worst poster in the NY forum, so it doesn't surprise me his comment.....

He is the worst poster wherever he posts. 

I remember last year people downplaying Irma as it was heading towards Florida, and that storm killed 92 people In The US and did 50 billion in damage.

People need to stop downplaying every threat. I rather that everything be overhyped and overprepared than people blow it off and be under prepared.

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed.

And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well.

33 minutes ago, ag3 said:

A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4.

Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. 

This is dangerous thinking. 

Can someone explain why sitting off the coast by 100 miles means it weakens?

I remember Harvey last year absolutely crawling onto the coast and bombing out while it was just off shore?

2 minutes ago, ander420 said:

I dont know man - our school has people from all over the country.  Asking families to spring for kids to fly out last minute to avoid a catastrophic hurricane and there is no hurricane makes every look bad.  I have never seen this level of preparation for a storm growing up in the northeast and in 12 years in NC.  The warnings were clear and for once people listened.  I think most people will tune out going forward.  

I get angry at this every time....especially on a weather board where people should know better and understand shifts do happen. 

It is is much better to inconvenience some people and be over prepared than have a catastrophic disaster and be under prepared. 

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

I’m very concerned. I have family in Charleston, and also sunset beach, NC. The ones in sunset beach don’t live in the barrier island, but they are maybe less than a mile from the sound. 

I know track is key. If it hits north of them, they are probably ok. If it hits near the nc/sc border, the ones in sunset beach are frankly screwed, and I doubt they will evacuate. 

So since this is going to be approaching at a rather odd angle for the area (more e to w than s to n) does that increase surge potential since it basically can work up a long fetch of surge?

8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I haven’t checked the gauge this morning, but good Lord it has been coming down for hours.


.

I’d imagine that a lot of creeks are going to hit their breaking point soon. 

1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Yikes.

Hoping Florence stays south or the Susky's going to go bonkers.

Yeah. The ramifications of Gordon, then Florence coming through would be quite serious. Could easily be looking at a foot plus of rain if Florence dumps on us after Gordon. 

So, we are about to get crushed with possibly 5 inches of rain through Monday...then Florence could come in next week.

I sincerely hope Florence misses our are because the effects of that could be catastrophic. 

I’m in Bellevue, and can’t figure why I have a severe thubderstorm warning.