slow poke

So my forecast here in the thumb of Michigan was for 1/2” during the day today and possibly 2” tonight and 2” tomorrow, thing I don’t understand is my grass is getting close to being covered already, probably 1.5” already and really snowing hard now. Is it going to warm up and start raining and melt the snow we have down to a 1/2” or does this storm have a chance to over perform? We have to run into town, this afternoon,  Port Huron, to grab a few things and we’re going to go by the lake to hopefully see some big waves, 12’-16’ footers! 

On 11/3/2020 at 4:53 PM, slow poke said:

In my opinion, which none of you asked for lol, this long warm stretch of weather is coming at a perfect time if you’re a fan of winter type weather during the holidays. I’m just a weather observer, not a trained met but weather patterns remind me of a rubber band, the longer you stretch it/pull it in one direction the harder it wants to snap back the other way. If this pattern gets stretched till mid/late December I would bet it will snap back hard to cold after that. We’ll see but I like our chances of a white Christmas if we end of having a warm/green thanksgiving.

I guess we’ll have to see how the next 30-40 days plays out weather wise to see what it’s gonna be like around the holidays but we’re having a white thanksgiving up here in northern lower Michigan again but it’s melting pretty fast. That could be a good sign because it’s really more about being warm or cold then it is about having snow on the ground at this point. We drove up Tuesday night, I-75 was horrible! Vehicles spun off in the ditch everywhere from Standish exit north. Worst drive up in a really long time actually. We had about 4”-5” total yesterday morning when we got up and actually road the snowmobiles some to burn the old gas out of them a little. I saw reports of 4” just south  west of here and even a 6.5” report from a guy down in Cadillac that rode his snowmobile 70 miles yesterday! Parts of that area down there have some pretty high elevation, 1700’ ish, so that probably helped them get the higher totals. Happy thanksgiving you guys, looking forward to eating to much today and watching the lions lose again, great thanksgiving traditions!

I enjoy reading your guys conversations about the different microclimates you have over there. Like your guys area we have our fair share of them in Michigan also. Between the Great Lakes and the elevation differences we have it makes for some pretty interesting ones actually. Our elevation differences are nothing compared to what you guys have out there though. Ours range from around 600’ at our lowest points near the great lakes to a little over 1700’ in the lower peninsula and almost 2000’ in the upper. I could go on and on about our different microclimates we have but I don’t want to bore you guys too bad.

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Nov 10, 2020: 77°, warmest temp so late in season at Detroit 

Nov 13, 2019: 7°, coldest temp so early in season at Detroit 

 

What a difference a year makes

Crazy how nature try’s to balance itself out like that but it definitely does more times than not. Love the 2nd picture with the snow cover and tree with leaves on it still. Something about deep snow and trees with their Fall color going on makes me think of winter just getting started with lots of cold and snow to come. 

In my opinion, which none of you asked for lol, this long warm stretch of weather is coming at a perfect time if you’re a fan of winter type weather during the holidays. I’m just a weather observer, not a trained met but weather patterns remind me of a rubber band, the longer you stretch it/pull it in one direction the harder it wants to snap back the other way. If this pattern gets stretched till mid/late December I would bet it will snap back hard to cold after that. We’ll see but I like our chances of a white Christmas if we end of having a warm/green thanksgiving.

1 hour ago, luckyweather said:

Thank you, I’m pretty stoked for the winter now that I don’t need so much to go right to have a snowpack (still need cold of course).

Slope is mostly about 15 degrees but drops off at 40 degrees for about 20’ with a nice run out at the end. For however long we have decent snow we build a terrain park and the kids shred at home, they ski and snowboard so whatever they are feeling like at the moment. We also have a trail down the slope in the woods and that’s where my wife and I like to ski and play, getting too old for the rails and jumps. The plan is to start laying down a base and hold it as long as possible, ideally well into spring, making snow as long as I can.

We are on a well and the pump and pressure tank are new so the water is “free”, the snow gun itself has specially engineered nozzles to put out very fine droplets. A standard (electric for lower noise) pressure washer gives the water flow oomph and the air compressor shoots a beam of compressed air straight up at the water as it exits the gun. This shreds and shears the droplets and so long as the wet bulb is 27 or under they crystallize into snowflakes.

The only special ingredient is the snow gun itself, plans are on the web and you can build it for a few hundred $ in parts.

Dang, that’s awesome! Guess we know who the coolest dad in your neighborhood is   how much vertical drop you have to work with?

We had rain/snow mix for a few hours yesterday afternoon, nothing stuck. Looking forward to a little warm up in a week or so, still have lots of outdoor stuff to get done before the weather gets cold. 

1 hour ago, luckyweather said:

Made snow for the first time (ever) this morning. Have had some good sub freezing temps but the humidity has been through the roof. This morning got the wet bulb down below 27 and voila!

That’s pretty cool lucky, looks like you’re on a hill there, would you sled or ski down it if you made enough? Compressed air, water, what else you got going on there?

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Great pics Will.  MQT mentioned a couple days ago in their afd discussion that there was a high bust potential for the forecast. 

Anyway, snow has picked up again this morning after stopping completely earlier.  Picked up another quick inch at least with a meso-low that drifted through (probably the burst of snow you mentioned this morning).

Pic I just grabbed from my doorbell cam.  Looks like mid-winter already!

Great pictures from you and Will, thanks for sharing. Do you think the snow cover is here to stay for the season? If so, is this the earliest it been this deep this early since you’ve lived there? We were up ATV riding at our place this weekend, had off and on snow showers but nothing stuck. 

4 hours ago, wishforsnow said:

You got that right. I came up for a job interview just a few days after thanksgiving. It was quite snowy here in the Keweenaw. When I finally moved up here the end of December that year it was very snowy. The snowbanks were so high I had to stand up out of my seat at the intersections to see if anyone was coming. At that time I drove a 1985 Ford 3/4 ton van. Then a few weeks after I moved up here we had a big snowstorm that ended up dumping 54 inches at the Airport which is north of Hancock. Also, that is the storm that this one nut decided to rob the bank and got his car stuck in the snow just up the street up from the bank and the cops had a standoff and the hostage he took ended up getting shot in the process. It was snowing so bad the plows were pulled off the roads.

The winter of 95-96 was awesome for northern Michigan. My aunt and uncle lived on Long Lake just north of Alpena back then and my wife, girlfriend at the time still, and I went up there snowmobiling a few times that winter. The snow was so deep up there that we were riding our snowmobiles in some fields where there were round hay bails that hadn’t been picked up yet from the last cutting and the snow on the flat was covering almost the entire bails. Just crazy deep snow that winter, would love to have another like that. For you non farmers a round bail is probably 5 feet high or more.

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

'95 was a white Turkey Day, and an even whiter Christmas. #funtimes

November/December of 04 and 08 also seemed to buck that trend if I recall, they both had snowy November’s and December’s in northern lower but I think 08 had the big melt down Christmas week. I could definitely be wrong though because I’m just going off my not so good memory but I remember having a nearly 2 foot base of snow melt down to 8” of rock hard crust one Christmas week up there and I thought it was 08. 

Hopefully it warms up and stays warmer then normal till mid December then flips to cold. A cold and white late Fall seems to give us a warm and muddy holiday season. In the 20 years that we’ve had our place in northern lower Michigan the 5 or 6 years we didn’t have a white Christmas up there we had a white Thanksgiving. Last year was one of them even though it did cool off enough too snow a few days after Christmas and we ended up with A white New Years with about 10” on the ground.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Euro doesn't look great but I don't consider +1-1.5C a blowtorch.  As always it's gonna come down to storminess and if la nina lives up to its name there should be fun times.

Hoping for a speedy recovery for you buddy. Looking forward to talking about snow storms this coming winter with you.

15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, West Michigan is basically moisture-starved powder from cold clippers that gets obliterated at the first sign of a thaw. The area I live in now does pretty well with approx. 140 inches a winter, but low elevation does no favors. I am looking for a place just north of me in Oswego county. Currently, I'm only a 20 minute drive from Fulton, which averages around 175 inches a winter.

Where were you at in west Michigan? Seems you have to head north of Grand Rapids a ways and get into some of the higher elevation areas to retain snow. My son is a freshman at Grand Valley just west of GR this year and is looking forward to watching the lake effect this winter. Like snow freak I really enjoy reading your guys winter Thread every season, you guys all seem to respect each other’s options and have some great discussions on here, hope you don’t mind us Michiganders jumping on here occasionally.

Spring’s like this one is why I won’t be in Michigan from mid March to May 1st after I retire. I’ve never been a fan of Spring which is basically a continuation of the same crap weather we’ve had since late October with highs within 10 degrees either side of 40 with a chilly wind most of the time this year. To each their own but Spring sucks. I like 4 distinct seasons and unfortunately this past Fall has continued for 7 months now with no real winter weather or spring weather outside a few days here or there. 

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Protest over what though, no one is planting anything yet, it is April 12th. The grass just now turned green here so a couple a weeks wait on mowing is no big deal, and no one is opening a cottage in the 2nd week of April either. It is just a vocal minority that is complaining because they are being told not to do something, the vast majority in this state would love to bear down these last 3 weeks so we don't have to for 7 more weeks on top.

I agree Stebo, it’s still early in the season even though I have cut my grass already and will be again today but realistically I could have probably waited a week or two. I would really have liked to be able to go up to our cabin this weekend, only the second time in the past 16 years we’re not spending Easter weekend up there, we have a bunch of yard work that needs to be done up there but it can wait. I’ll gladly continue to hunker down for a few more weeks if it means we’ll recover sooner from this and allow everyone to get back to their normal lives quicker.

On 2/28/2020 at 4:36 PM, josh_4184 said:

Here are some pictures from snow blowing a second time today.

Rode up to Lakes of the North Saturday, took all gas lines, 2 tracks and seasonal roads to get there, snow was good. Way back we ran the groomed trail down to starvation lake, then ran 2 tracks and seasonal roads back down from there. Best snow we found seemed to be from about M72 north to C38, in that area in the untouched spots it was probably 24”-30” but in about a 3 to 5 mile wide band just south of starvation lake we found snow crazy deep spots. Probably 36”+ , the north side of hills in the shade that were untouched we found a spot that was up to the middle of my chest and I’m a hair over 6’ tall with my boots on! The reason I know how deep it was is because I was stuck trying to out high mark my son who was already stuck. Great way to end the season.

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Been getting hammered since last evening, picked up another foot so far, easily the best LES of the season which is definitely not the norm but the torch winter has impacted the whole region. 

Nice, we’ll be up in your area tomorrow, gonna ride up to some friends of ours place in Lakes of the North, let it snow!

35 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Heard reports a few places around Kalkaska picked up a foot so far today. I have about 6" imby today another 8-14" possible. 

Wow, impressive lake effect for late February, ice free lakes will do that I guess 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

While I dont doubt some people over measure, some seem to lowball too. Measuring every 6 hours will account for a bit of compaction.  Today was a lot of blowing and drifting too. Im not in Macomb county, but I've heard several people report they had 6-7". Just food for thought.

I’m actually visiting my dad right now, he lives in Washington Twp just south of Stoney Creek Metro park in Macomb county, maybe with all the strong winds a few of the inches blew into lake st Clair, lol. Honestly, I just asked my dad “how much snow do you think you got here from this storm” his exact words were “they said we got 6 inches but we only got 3” . Now he doesn’t go out and measure every 4 hours or anything like that but he has lived in MI for over 70 years and knows what a 1/2 foot of snow on the ground looks like which this storm did not produce here. I saw reports of 5” to the south and west of here so “maybe” they got 5” here but that’s pushing it, I’m still sticking with my 4”ish report.

I’m not normally one to complain but it really bothers me when people exaggerate their snow fall totals especially in my area. I just saw a snowfall report of 6.8” in Macomb county. I’m calling that BS. I drive through almost the entire county from north to south twice a day and there’s no way they got that much from this storm. I would say they got 4” probably. Why do people have to treat their area like a sports team and they win or lose by whoever gets the most snow? Just tell the truth like snow freak does, no need to exaggerate, nobody’s going to win a prize for the snowiest area. Sorry, been wanting to get that off my chest for awhile now.

North west lower looks to be picking up some decent snow the next two days, maybe over a foot in places, I know where we’ll be riding this weekend!

On ‎2‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 9:05 AM, weatherbo said:

  There's not much negative to say about the area that's for sure.  When I lived there, winter's were awesome and summer was perfect (lake shadow ftw).  Not too hot and especially not too cool like it can be up here in summer.  That area isn't hugely populated so that was nice. You nailed it tho, lot's of woods and trails for riding all year long.  Some of the best fishing I've ever done was in six mile lake.  The hillbillies there are a different variety than anywhere I've lived...and I'll just leave it at that

 

Looks to get pretty nasty up here with the arctic front... snow wind and temps plummeting to near 0.

6-8" snow up this way with a low visibility, small flake type snow.

Thanks for the feedback guys, we went and looked at the property Friday, it's not something were interested in after seeing it. I think some of the hillbillies that you mentioned live on the road this property was on, pretty rough looking area. Junk cars in in yards, piles of scrap metal and old tires, its a shame because the view and area was really nice. The lower elevation was really noticeable compared to up the hill near 131, about 1/2 the snow cover as up the hill.   

On 12/24/2019 at 9:16 AM, weatherbo said:

There's been a lot actually the past several years, although my little corner here has not been under 200" a season since I've lived here.  One or two years it was close and the depth only peaked around 30" one year, think it was 2016-17.

Hey bo/Josh, we’re looking at some land, 15 acres, over near your old stomping ground bo, East Jordan. It’s actually just off M66 about 1/2 way between East Jordan and 131. Just wondering what you’re thoughts are of that area. Looks like they average a little over 100” of snow and it’s close to some really good mountain bike trails and some great inland lakes. Any thoughts you could pass along would be appreciated, thanks 

On ‎12‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 1:54 PM, slow poke said:

I really don’t have any thoughts making me think my state, MI, will be snowier/not or colder/warmer then normal this winter other then thinking everything “averages” out over time normally. Playing the average out with time game would have me thinking south east MI “should” have a little more snow then normal with average temps. Probably snow around the holidays to make up for last year even though Christmas of 2017 was incredibly snowy at my house in the southern Thumb area. Northern MI has really been a different situation though, the snow belts have been averaging about normal snow the past 20 years but outside the main snow belts it’s been a different story. Our place up north, 10 miles south of Grayling, averages about 90” of snow per season, 9 out of the past 19 seasons have been below average, 9 have been about average with only 1 season, 2008-2009, being above average. To say the non main snow belt areas are due for a above average snow season would be a understatement. Is this the new normal up there? Maybe but I feel northern MI is probably due for a above normal snow season with about average to slightly above temps. Just my thoughts as a weather observer for nearly 50 years, not a professional meteorologist.

Man did I ever crap the bed with some of these predictions. I promise guys no more long range predictions from me, I'll leave them for the professionals. I couldn't have been more wrong about the "snow around the holidays" statement and was definitely wrong about the whole "average temps" stuff. Depending how the next 2 months go up north I "might" be close to having a ok forecast for up there. They would have to really start getting some decent snow storms to close out the winter season though which can definitely happen up there but who knows.