slow poke

31 minutes ago, mimillman said:

How we doing up there Bo? Just booked my snowmobile trip March 5-7 in Munising. Better make it snow!

We actually just canceled our mid February snowmobile backpack across the UP trip yesterday. You would think there would be “ok” snow up there by then but with the way this season has gone so far who knows what it will be like next month up there. Plus with the restaurant and bars being closed till February 1st now there’s no guarantee they will be open by then also unfortunately. Just to many risks for our group to commit to doing it this year. 

19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That's been happening a lot this week! With all the fog and low clouds around, we have more than enough moisture. Local industry has largely been feeding the surprise flurries/snow showers (likely a combo of heat/steam and particulates that act as ice nuclei). There have even been isolated locations around that have picked up 1-2" of accumulation where they've been more persistent. 

1”-2” from industrial pollution/smoke stacks? That’s pretty cool actually, never herd of that before. 

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Models often rush changes. "its always 7-10 days away" is the new "torch" for overused weather forum lingo. The magnitude, duration, and extent of the cold is unknown and the sensible weather details will always be up in the air until a few days prior, but i think it's a safe bet to say mid to late January and into February will be the harshest, most active part of winter for our sub.

Will be interesting to see if the pattern actually turns colder in February or not. I remember reading a month or so ago that a lot of people thought the cold was coming right after the holidays/early January but we see how that worked out. Now many of them same people are saying late January/early February. Maybe some of those people are snow shovel or snow blower salesman’s that keep calling for the cold that never seems to show up on time and when it does it seems to not hang around long at all. I’m not sure who I feel worse for though, the people that spend hours and hours studying models and making long range weather projections that very very rarely come true or those of us that actually read what they put out and think it will happen. I know you and I are very similar when it comes to long range projections in that after about a week it’s basically 50/50 if they’ll get it correct but I’ll read them anyway a lot of times even though I know they will probably be wrong. If and when the cold shows up in February the days will be getting longer, the sun angle will be a factor and Spring/March will be only weeks out. 

29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Some legit lake-effect in southeast WI this morning. Remnants should eventually make it to Chicago, but I imagine it won't be quite as intense. 

Kenosha: KENW 081401Z 35006KT 1/4SM SN FG OVC012 00/M02 A3030 RMK AO2 P0000 T00001022

Racine: KRAC 081405Z AUTO 03012G21KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC005 01/M01 A3031 RMK AO2 P0001 T00061006

We have some light flurries falling also here in Michigan’s thumb thanks to a north east wind and Lake Huron. Not showing up on the radar here like out you’re guys way though.

19 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Talk

Talk about a putrid calendar year for snow!

The lack of snow out your way is pretty remarkable, I would think it will swing the other way eventually. Looking at the NWS out of Gaylord winter highlights the past 5 years it’s pretty easy to see it’s been a warm stretch. Winter of 15/16 was record warm, 16/17 was top 10 warm, 17/18 and 18/19 were about average and 19/20 was again top 10 warm. The first half of this 20/21 winter has started out again with top 10 warmth. Not sure how this winter will end up but it’s going to have a have a hard time ending up below average at this point. 

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks. Actually I just made a collage myself out of screenshots to kind of make it a little more user friendly to post lol. I simply plugged in what I wanted into Xmacis. if you want anything specific pm me and ill be happy to look it up. it always less you choose a regression line or moving average. It does include this year which was a mistake on my part because it's kind of silly to include the average temperature and snowfall which unfairly skews things warmer (Jan and Feb are colder than Dec on avg) and way less snowy (we have 3.5 more months of snow to go) for this season. Thats a regression line so its not to be used as exact average. Using the past 10 years and not counting this year (again, my mistake) 6 were above the current 42.7" avg and 4 below, but the above were often much above and the below just barely. The 10 years had an accumulated surplus of 67.4" of snow. Snowfall had been fine this season (3 events of 3-4", several more 1-2") but im irritated there's nothing on the ground right now. Am feeling good about 2nd half of Jan though.

DTW last 10 yrs

2010-11- 69.1" (+26.4")

2011-12- 26.0" (-16.7")

2012-13- 47.7" (+5.0")

2013-14- 94.9" (+52.2")

2014-15- 47.5" (+4.8")

2015-16- 35.3" (-7.4")

2016-17- 37.9" (-4.8")

2017-18- 61.0" (+18.3")

2018-19- 31.3" (-11.4")

2019-20- 43.7" (+1.0")

While on the treadmill a few minutes ago I was watching TWC like I normally do and they had a blip basically regurgitating what the article said about warming winters since the 1970’s in the Great Lake region. We all know where they stand as far as Global warming so I’m not going try to explain what they said in detail but they are saying our winters have warmed as much as 5 degrees. Any idea where they are getting them numbers at? They also said the ski season could be half of the length it currently is in northern Michigan. Again, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with them, just curious where they get their data from. 

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I am the one who said that lol. I was just looking up random stats. The 5 consecutive DF were tied with 1929-33 for the warmest 5 consecutive DJFs (really thanks to 3 mild winters). it was not near a record for warmest 5 consecutive "cold seasons" (NDJFM).  In the days of Xmacis the stat buff can literally find anything for any Hand picked metric.  The previous 2 winters before that 5 year stretch blew away, and I mean blew away, all records for snow depth at Detroit as well. They were far and away the most severe back-to-back winters on record when you combine cold and snowdepth. The 1970s didn't come close for snowdepth. All of that is within 7 years. All in all the 2010s winters at Detroit were colder than the 1990s, 1950s, & 1930s and tied with the 1880s. 

 

As for cold/snow, Gaylord doesn't have a steady climate record, but here is a look at Detroit, Alpena, and Marquette winter temp and snow trends over the last 100 years. The regression line is in red. A very slight increase in temp at Detroit and Alpena and a noticeable DECREASE in temp.at Marquette (site change?). All 3 have an increase in snow.

Great find, I’ve never seen that before, that’s pretty cool. Is that including this winter so far also? So just looking back at the past 10 years it looks like Detroit has had 7 years warmer then average and 3 below with APN and MQT having 6 above with 4 below. Snowfall wise it looks to me Detroit has had 6 out of the past 10 years with below normal snowfall, that correct? APN looks like they have had 7 below, 2 above and 1 average with MQT having 6 below, 2 above and 2 average. As far as this winter so far we’ve had a bunch of snow up at Higgins compared to most places. Even down home here we’ve had quite a bit of snow actually. I’ve plowed my driveway 4 times already including yesterday when we got home from up north. No big storms down here like we’re had up north but  4 or 5 grass covering snowfalls so far. Up north has been a different story, few weekends back we got 9-10” on day and this past Friday night we got 7” in a little over 3 hours up there. We got over a foot of fresh snow while we were up there last week. 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I read this article yesterday and its a complete joke. The author is well known to be very agenda based. They recycle the same basic article every handful of years during a mild winter, have been since the mid 1990s, just change the dates and stuff. It's full of misinformation. They always use the generic line "the past 5 or 10 years" which in this case includes winters where MI was covered in record snow or ice.

 

Are Michigan's winters warming somewhat? Yes. But snowfall is increasing at most Michigan climate sites. The article says winters are warming faster than summers which is actually 100% backwards lol. It talked about some snowmobile race in Sault Ste Marie in 2018 not having ice. Lol the Winter of 2017-18 featured an average temperature BELOW normal in SSM and while there was a late February thaw there was tons of snow and ice. I go to the up North every Winter and see it for myself. BS media hype full of twists is why so many people unfortunately don't believe in climate change.

I believe it was said somewhere in this forum recently the “Detroit” area is currently in its warmest 5 year stretch when combining them. Not sure if that’s talking about just winter or the whole year though. I’m thinking after how this winter has started out it might be 6th? I’m not a stat guy but I can tell you from someone who has owned a home in northern Michigan on a large lake for 20 years now and spends most weekends and holidays there that the winters have changed. The lake ice is taking longer to get safe, on average it was the first couple weeks of January, lately it’s been late January even early February. Snowfall average has slowly been declining also according to the NWS out of Gaylord.

https://www.freep.com/in-depth/news/local/michigan/2021/01/03/michigan-winter-festivals-climate-change/3954384001/
 

I saw this posted on another site, good example of how Michigan winters are changing and how it’s effecting some areas and sports in the state.

This storm really overachieved up here in my area in northern lower Michigan this evening, we’ve picked up 7” since it started around 6:00. Crazy heavy snow for few hours, just light snow falling now though. Local point n click still have us at 1”! How in the heck can they be this far off? Just looking at the radar and what was moving our way pretty much anyone could have seen we would have got more then 1”. Going to make for some great snowmobiling tomorrow!

5 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Been a long time, we usually cash in on clippers with extended period  NW Winds doesn't seem to be the norm the past few years.  My first couple years up in Gaylord area we were hitting 175"+ year ever year, the past 3 or 4 not even hitting the average around 140-150. Again sounds pretty petty when other areas cant even muster 40" but when living in snowbelts you just get used to heavy yearly snow.

Snow depth looks “about” the same everywhere between exit 244 and 280 except around Waters where it looks a little deeper, maybe by a inch or two. Really surprised how little snow there is in Gaylord, Grayling actually seems to have a little more at this time. As we were driving we were talking about the old n days during the week between Christmas and new year’s up around Gaylord and how crazy it used to be with snowmobilers, now it’s so different. Lack of snow and lack of new people getting into the sport is really killing it from a numbers stand point.

Just now, josh_4184 said:

Picked up another 3-4" overnight of Fluff, finally looks like winter around here.  Not LES related but looking like upwards of 6" of cement for tomorrow and another decent look for Friday/Saturday.  Nice to be able to use the new Snow Plow (probably why the winter has been so terrible :)) 

That same band gave us a couple inches late last night also. It was really coming down for a while. We probably have 8” or so now on the ground now here at Higgins, the lake effect fluff settles down fast. The snowmobiling was decent yesterday and should only get better as the week goes on. I’m heading up to Gaylord in a bit to Home Depot actually, I’m curious to see the difference in snow depth in places in that 30 miles.

Beautiful Christmas Day in the thumb of Michigan today! Been snowing all day, pretty hard the past few hours actually. Probably around  4”-5” on the ground and still coming down. Kids are out riding snowmobiles playing and enjoying it before it gets to dark. Merry Christmas everyone!

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Continued snowing beautifully all day today. I think it's finally ending. Over the last 2 days we have grinded and I mean grinded out 3.1" of snow total. Seaaon at 9.3" to date. Nevertheless it has been a snow globe and it was beautiful and I just love looking at the Christmas decorations in fresh snow.

Awesome pictures Josh, the fresh snow really helps makes them look good. Side note this December looks and feels way different then last year to me. Last year we were mountain biking December 23rd, this year it’s been chilly and we’ve had enough snow to make it definitely feel like December to me. I saw 17 degrees this morning and some really think freezing fog also. Last weekend while up north it was a awesome winter weekend also. 

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

It's a start... Winter conditions have arrived a lil bit.  18 with a w/c of 13, has snowed 2" overnight.  Temp should continue falling to around 12 degrees by noon... 4.5" otg   

Wow, that’s pretty crazy you guys only have that much on the ground right now, very unusual for sure. At least you know it’s not if but when the snow will start to pile up and get deep up there. You’ll probably still be below average come the 1st of the year but I would bet you guys will have a decent snowpack building by then. Down here in northern lower we have a decent start snow wise after this weekends storm but it’s anyone’s guess if it will continue building or be gone by new year’s. It was snowing out pretty good a bit ago here at Higgins, some lake effect, saying another 1-2” today but more to the north and west of us.

1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

It looks like that chart is NAO values, which makes sense as there hasn’t been a true -NAO winter in years. 2013-14 and 2014-15 were top 20 coldest winters, while  2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were in the top 10 warmest winters. 

That makes more since, I miss read that, thanks MI storm.....

Have you seen this snow freak? This was a chart from Bill Deeder’s, I’m sure I spelled his name wrong, winter forecast. It says 9 of the past 10 have been warmer then normal for Detroit. I know you’re really good with stats and was wondering is that what you’re seeing also? If so that’s pretty crazy. I know snowfall hasn’t really been affected by the warmth but man that’s a pretty disturbing trend that’s going on for the Detroit area.

On 11/7/2020 at 8:30 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 

1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1"

2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8"

period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43")

 

So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 

It was this post snow freak, I probably miss understood it but I think it says we are currently in a 5 year stretch of warm winters when averaging them out. 

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Went to mount rainier in October. One of the most beautiful places in the USA.

Couldn’t agree with you more, we were out there two summers back, words can’t describe how beautiful that mountain is. We went to the ranger station which I think is one of the snowiest locations in the lower 48, I couldn’t imagine the view if we were to have hiked up a couple 1000 feet. I’ve been lucky enough to spend a lot of time out west in the mountains the past 25 years or so during all 4 seasons and to me, and my family, Mt Rainier was probably our favorite! 

I had thought I had seen someone say the last 5 winters in Detroit are the warmest when combined or something like that in recorded history or something like that, I could definitely have this wrong though. Like we’ve all said, snow is only a part of what makes up a winter, cold air is a part of that also and I can definitely see where people could have a legitimate grip about the lack of cold during the past few winters. I was talking to one of my uncles who’s a ice fisherman that lives on Anchor Bay last week about the lack of “safe” ice the past two winters. He thought there was maybe only 2 weeks combined between the past two winters where you could go out safely on good ice. On average you should be able to get out on that ice by mid January through early March,  8 weeks or so per winter. Again every winter is different but the “average “ would probably be about 8 weeks per winter. People upset we don’t have a foot of snow on the ground from December 1st to March 15th south of the 45th Parallel would be equivalent to me complaining all the golf courses in lower Michigan aren’t all open year round, it’s just silly I feel. There’s definitely glass are 1/2 full and glass are 1/2 empty people in this forum, we pretty much know where we all are at in that spectrum and to me that’s what helps make this interesting to read no matter how ridiculous someone’s opinion is lol. 

2 hours ago, luckyweather said:

Ma nature isn’t giving up the goods here in N IL / S WI, but she’s finally delivering a little cold. Granite Peak up in Wausau opened last week, now the S WI hills and even Chestnut in Galena IL are getting a base layer down, just about everybody is opening some limited terrain this weekend. Chairs spin at Alpine Valley tomorrow.

Wow that’s kinda crazy, I just got back home about a hour ago from Boyne Falls, home of Boyne Mt ski resort, there not even close to opening up, they have “some” snow blown on a couple runs but nowhere close to looking like winter up there like the pictures you shared. They normally try to be open for thanksgiving but not this season, actually the only snow I saw today on my trip up and back was down here at home in northern St Clair county. Very strange start to the winter season up north again this year.

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

November was a terrible month for snow.  Total here was 10 inches...about 15-20" below average for the month. I currently have 3 inches otg.  Ohio has more snow.

December looks hostile as well.  

I was wondering how you been up there Bo, hadn’t seen you post anything in a while. Hopefully the UP and northern lower will start to get some cold air in the next couple weeks, otherwise it could be a bleak holiday season up there for tourists. But I did hear they had a crazy busy summer season so maybe they’ve had enough of us trolls for a little while. We booked some hotel rooms up across the UP for our annual snowmobile across the UP trip and we had one tell us if things don’t change we’ll have to stay somewhere else because the local hospital was using their rooms for overflow covid patients.

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Finished with 4.2", the jackpot of SE MI as expected per late model runs. DTW had 3.8". North and West just saw 1 or 2".

Great pictures as usual snow freak, the snow definitely helps getting into the holiday spirit!

This was the 3rd grass covering, or really close to covering, snowfall this season at my location, first time was November 1st, second time was November 22nd and now this storm. For being as warm as it’s been this November it’s still managed to snow somehow.

I plowed my driveway this morning for the first time this season,  definitely  looks wintery out there. Probably have 3” or so on the ground now but the 1” or so that fell yesterday morning melted before it switched back yesterday evening. The storm two day total was probably closer to 4”-4.5” which was pretty much what the Detroit nws was calling for, in my opinion they did a pretty good job with this storm.