TauntonBlizzard2013
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Everything posted by TauntonBlizzard2013
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breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories. So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members
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Must be a few members near Bermuda... lots of spread west there
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What gives? Seems like you various ensemble suites have better outcomes than the OP runs. At some point, you’d expect those to link up, no?
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You are in a better spot than anyone on this forum
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Overall... not great on the 12z runs today... still time, but going to need corrections soon.
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Looks similar to all the other solutions we’ve seen at 12z looks great and then gets punted East... leaving a cape scrape basically
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Wow.. that’s a razor sharp cutoff.... nothing in Boston... warning event for se mass
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Very similar to the CMC... looks really good only to get punted East last second
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I think If we get fringed it’s probably more slop than anything... but yeah... verbatim probably like 3-6 here
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Up to 102 on the cmc it looks like more phasing and a low closer to the coast compared to 00z... so up to that point it was a net positive. From that point on it looks like the low moves almost due East and surgically away from impact for NE
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Well, I’d like something to show something other than a close whiff... doesn’t have to be a jackpot run... but something other than what we’re seeing.
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It looked good for a while and then just shunts East last second... actually worse than 00z
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Me thinks the cmc is going to be a big hit
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Through 90... cmc looks a bit better to me
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You’d think with this setup we’d at least be seeing some model fodder with some massive solutions crushing the area, and we just aren’t really seeing that across any of these model suites. Just close enough to keep em interested until the rug gets pulled a few days from now. The final screw job of winter 19-20
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What a behemoth of a storm though. Gets down to 959 East of our area. Too bad that isn’t 100-150 miles NW... prob be talking some insane conditions for most of SNE
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Gfs isn’t going to get it done either... looks a bit less impressive than 6z too me.
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I know everyone is anxiously awaiting an icon update.... but it’s a miss at 12z
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It’s the 84 hour NAM.... but it looks ominous at 84
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This is still like 4 or 5 days out... but the major components coming together aren’t an eternity away. My observation has been a subtle trend across guidance over the last 18-24 hours that the interaction with these two streams just happens too late. A big storm in the Atlantic with minimal effects to NE. Obviously that can change, but at this point, I’d heavily lean late bloomer that misses the area. We are really trying to thread the needle to get these to line up
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Yeah... the general theme im getting is this is just going to get going a bit too late.
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Gfs and icon aren’t all that different as far as end results go. Create a nuke of a storm we’ll offshore
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Icon is a beast well offshore.... man... if that thing got going sooner
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That does illustrate my fear here though. A phase with a powerful storm, but way too far offshore. That seems to be reflected in some members here
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Blek..... need to see more of a trend on the ensembles. My gut feeling at this time is basically too little too late probably... nice storm for some fishermen out in the northern Atlantic
