TauntonBlizzard2013
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Everything posted by TauntonBlizzard2013
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NAM has a pretty healthy inverted trough
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Yeah... low probability for sure, but it isn’t over here. Lots of spiking and high fiving over an event that’s still 4 days away. Weve never seen forecasts change at that lead time.
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Less done than you, to be sure. Canadian is a nice little event here. I wouldn’t predict that at this point, but still 84 hours out... wouldn’t take much to have a glancing blow for BOS-PVD SE
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Hey it looked good for a while. Still an outside shot we sneak some snow in down here. Everywhere else, yeah I’d punt at this point
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Given the winter, it’s probably not happening, but it really wouldn’t take all that much to get SE areas into the game. I mean, the CMC does it as is
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CMC isn’t bad.... good event SE Mass and crushes Jimmy
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Big jog SE on the gfs.... we’ll see what the real models say overnight but this threat is on life support.
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This winter has had corona virus since The second week of December
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Yup... without snow it’s going to roast
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Huge shift in the wrong direction on the NAM. Souther stream is hundreds of miles south and heading east
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Yup.... souther stream a good bit south and northern stream further north..... yikes
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00z NAM running.... see if we have any hope here
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I think it’s safe to say this isn’t going to cut
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It is a bit weaker and slightly further East.... 00z we need changes or punt it to the moon
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I don’t hate the 18z gefs... but I feel like we are probably very slowly but surely losing this threat
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Yeah... I’m not chasing a few rogue ensemble members after tonight... we know how that goes
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Tonight should seal our fate I think... at least we won’t waste time tracking deep into the week. This winter is for the birds
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Basically the exact same as 12z out to 102... an absolute behemoth justttttt far enough offshore not to impact us. I love how all these solutions bounce around but when one is just far enough from impact, it locks in.
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Gfs looks identical through 60
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Icon is snow showers for SE Mass... nothing NW of that
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Looks like shiat
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NAM at 84 looks pretty good... but so did all the other guidance
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breaking down those individuals... I see 12/50 (~25%) that would be Significant events... and about another half dozen or so that would be moderate... with another half dozen to 7 or 8 or so that are very close to one of those two categories. So basically about 50% chance of a decent event based on those members
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Must be a few members near Bermuda... lots of spread west there
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What gives? Seems like you various ensemble suites have better outcomes than the OP runs. At some point, you’d expect those to link up, no?
