NycStormChaser

Can't post radar loop from my phone but possibly a tornado touched down a few minutes ago in South Jersey. 

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Got nicked by a downpour for five minutes before that it's been all drizzle. Hrrrrr is a heavy trace for large portion of Jersey rest of the day and radar would seem to support that. Rainy day not?

 

EDIT: Just realized you said for Jersey, not the entire area. 

Not saying it is going to verify but the HRRR is hardly a trace. It has multiple rounds of heavy showers this evening and spits out almost 3 inches of rain just north of the City into CT. 

WPC says this area is likely to see flash flooding this afternoon and into this evening. Latest HRRR has storms basically training over NYC and surrounding areas all evening. 

We need to keep an eye on Monday and Tuesday for a flash flooding threat. WPC has Day 3 in a slight risk but may be upgraded to a moderate risk of flash flooding especially across PA. They are waiting for additional model agreement however they are thinking 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible. 

I put together some of the best timelapse sequences I shot during my storm chasing trip a few weeks ago. I will have a second video coming this week that is more of a behind the scenes chase video. 

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like activity develops to our southwest rather than the stuff out in PA

That is true. Although hrrr has been very consistent with developing storms around NYC later tonight. There's a nice area of 1500 cape around Philly. You can see those storms are the best looking ones around. The instability *should* shift northeast tonight but we just need the moisture. 

Looks like instability increases a bit over the next few hours. I think we see some decent storms around midnight. May not be severe but probably a few rumbles of thunder and maybe some lightning. 

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah, don't see why marginal won't cover NYC and southern New England on subsequent updates. Flow is fairly weak in mid-levels and lapse rates aren't like they were w/ the SI hail event last week, but there is some impressive moisture/theta-e return and focus in the region. Could maybe see some brief spin-ups along with isolated wet microbursts, in addition to the tropical downpours.

I dont think there is enough instability to warrant a marginal although based on today's model runs they might add it in tonight. 

Here are a few of my time lapse sequences from yesterday. 

Looks like more storms possible on Wednesday and Thursday. This has been shaping up to be quite the active spring. 

I cant confirm from my viewpoint if that was scud or a funnel south of brooklyn on the left of my shot

I'm in Brooklyn facing the Verrazano and getting some epic lightning shots. My camera is picking up a lowering on that cell over sandy hook. 

These storms should make it to NYC

Looks like round 2 comes through the area between 9PM and 11PM. Would not surprise me to see another severe warning in NYC. 

Hail in Brooklyn 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like that's it until the cold front

Yeah I think we are done for now. Possibly some storms fire around 10PM but I wouldn't count on it. 

Blue skies again as that batch of storms passed through. 

I drove thru that cell to get to the Southside for a timelapse. Can confirm small hail about 20 minutes ago. 

Storms should pop off around 4 or 5 from west to east. Dew points could be better but the storms to our south in WV have no problem going severe with dews hovering 60. Mlcape is better down there but everything else looks to be the same for our area. It's not as widespread as the models were showing yesterday however I think a few storms in our area will go severe as well. 

Based on the HRRR, most of our area can expect severe weather today likely in the form of damaging wind. I think hail will be an issue as well all the way to NYC again like last week. 

In the past 24 hours, forecast models have increased the idea of severe weather in parts of our area tomorrow. It has gone from a completely linear solution to a multicellular one with the possibility of descrete supercells ahead of the main batch. The mid Hudson Valley through New York City is particularly catching my eye. Instability looks good as well. The main threat should be damaging winds with some hail but I don't think we can rule out an isolated tornado in some areas. 

18z Nam continues to suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Specifically southeast Pennsylvania into Southern NJ. Instability looks to be decent however we don't start clearing out until the early afternoon. Will be interested in seeing the next few model runs. 

The next chance for some thunderstorm activity is Sunday. Models are all over the place when it comes to CAPE and cloud cover, but i think there is at least a chance for thunderstorms from Eastern Pennsylvania / New Jersey up through Albany. If we can get minimal cloud cover in the morning then some of the thunderstorms may be severe. I feel like the SPC will put the area in a marginal on their day 2 update tonight. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

24 years ago today. Hard to believe an F5 in PA

 

The Niles, OH/Wheatland, PA Tornado

This extremely violent tornado began in eastern Ohio, and tore directly through the towns of Niles, Ohio and Wheatland, Pennsylvania, producing F5 damage at both locations. The tornado killed 18 people and injured 310, and was the most violent and deadly of the 43 recorded that day. Registering F5 on the Fujita scale, it remains the only F5 in Pennsylvania history,^[5]and was also the most violent tornado reported in the United States in 1985.^[6]

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_United_States–Canada_tornado_outbreak

I think this was 34 years ago not 24.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not much going on, last couple days felt very early fall like 

However overall activity in PA/NJ in late May could signal an active severe season once we get into July/August given the cyclical pattern we've been in. 

I was discussing the same thing earlier today. Usually mid June thru July is our active time however given the past week or two we might be in for an active summer.