NycStormChaser

This boat washed up at field 6 Jones Beach a few days ago. I went there last night to photograph it. I was surprised how dark it was that close to the light pollution.

Holy shit its pouring cats and dogs
 
I have never seen it rain this hard in a long time

That cell in Brooklyn droped some of the heaviest rain I've see in a long time.

Um. There was some sketchy looking lowering of the clouds going on here in Jersey City about 5 minutes ago. Checking the TDWR radar out of Newark, maybe some broad rotation? Don't know but it definitely looked sketchy.

I grabbed this image via the NY harbor EarthCam. Sorry for the horrible quality.

 

That storm in NE new jersey is really crawling slow.

South jersey cleared out hours ago so they were able to retain the instability. Most models also had a multi cell storm mode today but they all went linear pretty fast.

Nice lowering over Manhattan and Brooklyn. I couldn't grab any photos due to the fog though.

Bayonne almost at an Inch in the past hour

Broad rotation on radar.

Areas east of NYC yes, the city west you should be OK.

Everyone in the NYC metro area should at least get in on heavy rain/stronger storms but severe is more uncertain.

Completely foggy over lower new york harbor. South jersey will do well but now that the storm went linear I don't think many people see severe weather. It is possible the multicellular stuff back in PA produces but I wouldn't count on it.

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

 

Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England...
   Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from
   northern PA/NJ northward into New England.  Despite the limited
   thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends
   suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. 
   Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for
   organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps
   a tornado.  However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that
   the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily
   marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward
   into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity.

The SPC also added a 2% tornado risk for the upstate ny / new england area. The HRRR has been showing a chance of tornado up there for the last 12 runs so SPC must feel it is on to something. If there is a tornado up there it will be embedded in that messy line. I think the EPA / South Jersey area will cash in like they always do. 

22 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So that would mean more hours of overcast skies?

Personally I think by the early afternoon hours Central NJ on south is clear. You can see the clearing already starting to happen to our west / south west. Lower to mid 70s dew points are moving north through New Jersey into NYC and once areas get daytime heating CAPE values should be in the 2000-3000 J/KG. I do think this will be a mostly Hudson River on west day though with some severe storms thunderstormspopping up throughout the late afternoon and evening. 

(Might have to click play on the GIF)

Pretty significant flooding event unfolding across the Reading area. Radar estimates 4 inch of rain fell in one hour with more on the way tonight. Areas south of Philly have received a similar amount.

Interesting discussion from Mt Holly about tomorrow.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For the 630 PM update, made some adjustments to the PoPs with the increase delayed some eastward. Also added in a mention of heavy rain and gusty winds for the afternoon given the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Another day, more convection. Seems to be the theme of the week around the Mid-Atlantic but thankfully this looks to be the last day of unsettled weather as we head towards the end of the week. A low pressure system will track through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic along the stalled boundary. Good surface heating is expected to take place on Thursday and will help with convective initiation as the majority of the forecast area looks to remain in the warm sector. SPC has placed the majority of our forecast area into a slight risk for severe weather. There is decent shear (improved in the lower levels than is present Wednesday) and CAPE >1000 J/kg present and convection should have no problem developing ahead of the approaching cold front, although there may be more forward storm motion present than there is Wednesday. Damaging winds looks to be the main threat at this time but there is some indication we could see supercells develop in which case we can`t rule out the possibility of rotating cells. May need to watch the track of the weak surface low as the surface winds back back to the southeast ahead of it resulting in enhanced low- level shear. With PWATs remaining around 2 inches, we will continue to have a heavy rain threat and though the coverage may not be as widespread, several areas have had a fair amount of rain this week. Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for the day Thursday, although given storm motions should be faster and some uncertainty where the heaviest rain will fall we held off for now. Temperatures will rise into the 80s through much of the area and even into the lower 90s across southern Delaware and nearby areas of eastern Maryland. The limiting factor, especially across our northern areas, will be the cloud cover as the day starts off with fog/low clouds across the region and just how fast they clear will play a role in just how fast temperatures can rise through the day.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

While not fully in range yet, the extended 18z hrrr paints a pretty severe picture tomorrow for much of our area. NAM is rolling out now.

Edit: NAM not as robust

Talk about hype. Jeeze.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/potent-storm-to-trigger-flooding-tornado-threats-in-ohio-valley-and-northeast/70008580

At 3:08 PM EDT, 1 S RED Bank [Monmouth Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports FLOOD. MPING REPORT OF STREET FLOODING WITH ROADS CLOSED AND VEHICLES STRANDED. https://t.co/dmajJGA4lP

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models look wet for tomorrow...new NAM: 

Absolutely. Most of the activity has remained to our south the past 2 days however the 18z forecast models want to shift the convection and heavier rain further north tomorrow. The potential for 1-3 inches of rain is possible where every the heavier bands setup. 

18z 3K NAM

18z HRRR

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What a week to be off from work.

Rain everyday =(

At least we have some storms to track. 

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It would not surprise me to see the slight risk area expanded and shifted north. Whether the NYC metro area makes it into the slight risk is another story but at the very least the marginal should hold serve.

Yeah, same. The models did a piss poor job yesterday with this setup to our west. I think we have a nice day of storms ahead. And we do it all again tomorrow. 

The SPC has places most of this forum in a marginal risk for severe weather today. To our south / southwest, there is a slight risk of severe weather. SPC has also included a 2% chance of tornadoes to our south. The sun is peaking out in brooklyn but that cloud cover to the west is moving in fast. I may head down to south jersey in a few hours depending on how much instability they can achieve. 

Mt Holly discussion is worth the read as well but its long so I won't copy and paste it. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Sunday through Tuesday looks interesting with a stalling cold front over the area. Multiple days of convection and possibly flash flooding may occur. Models still figuring out the fine details as far as placement and timing.