hudsonvalley21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --

Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC. Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME.

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING... LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING FOLLOWED. THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE 1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

I will not challange her measurements. Sounds good to me. Still light snow as of 4pm and 5" down on the east side of the county.

Light stuff here on the east side of the county. I have 0.5" down so far. It started around 6:30am.

It is nice to have our own thread. We have a couple of mets and other posters join in at times. Also, I don't mind posting in the other threads NYC, New England, etc. I have never had a problem. Again, it's great to have a home here in this thread.

Could have higher than the 10:1 normal. That could make things up if the NAM is a bit overdone.

That would drop a foot for the area. Not bad at all. Sometimes the NAM QPF totals could be overdone. I would cut this in half and still be happy. We'll see. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kswf.txt

Happy New Years ! Hope for some winter fun for everyone but most of all, a healthy and great year to you and your famlies.

Good idea. When they those 2-3 foot snowfalls, they could use the machines to get stranded people off the highways, attend to medical calls, and use for park patrols. They can even pick up EMS staff that live in the city that can't make it into work due to down subway lines buses, etc.

Thanks from me too! I wound up with 17-18 inches of pure powder. It was a breeze with the snowblower and I did not hear of any issues of folks loosing power in my area. The next one is yours.

Same thoughts here just on the other side of the river. Measured 15" at 11:30. Had another inch or two in the last hour. So I see we are close.

Ramped up again here too. The winds have died off for the last half an hour. Pretty strange.

Just did the driveway. Measured 15.5 off the car and 17.0 off the lawn. Still more to come.

band here is gerat. I'd say I'm around 10" now

Good to hear Band after band on the way. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=NCR&lat=40.84149170&lon=-73.28043365&label=Commack,%20NY&showstorms=0&map.x=413&map.y=241&centerx=464&centery=248&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

I would est. 1-2" in the last hour.

I'm getting clipped by it too. Just on the western edge. est. about 4" down now. I'm around 1/2 mile west of the hudson.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 432 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... NYZ067-270545- /O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/ ORANGE- 432 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 15 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ORANGE COUNTY. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.

Hey, good luck down there. Have the same up here.

5 pm Obs. NYZ052-065-067-262300- HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH SNOW 19 18 93 NE14G25 29.60F VSB 1/2 WCI 6 MONTGOMERY LGT SNOW 22 18 85 NE16 29.59F VSB 1 WCI 8 POUGHKEEPSIE SNOW 20 16 84 N15G28 29.62F VSB 1/2 WCI 6 ALBANY FLURRIES 18 9 68 N16G25 29.78F WCI 3 $$

Thanks Hope it will shift a bit more to the north and give you a bit more. Could have some thundersnow with some of those bands.

Game on!! I don't remember Orange county was under a Blizzard Warning. Tonite will be insane! Keep those flashlights nearby

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 631 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... VERY LIGHT SNOW NEAR KGON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AT 11Z WITH BAND OF PCPN BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DELMARVA AND STRETCHING NEWD. WATER VAPOR INDICATES THIS IS THE WAA ZONE. TD/S STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH MAIN LIFT S OF THE CWA AND MOISTURE LIMITED OVER THE CWA...WILL KEEP IT MAINLY DRY AT SUNRISE..WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SE TO NW THROUGH NOON. SIGNS OF THIS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AT KMTP WITH CLOSING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOS. 6Z MODEL UPDATE...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT A GENERAL 12-16 INCH SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON RIVER EAST. BANDING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED 2 FT AMOUNTS. GFS LOW TRACK IS 40-60 MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN THE SREF AND NAM. .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES...YET. TWO MAIN FCST ISSUES THIS MORNING. FIRST IS THE WIND. SECOND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS ERN LI. MODEL STORM TRACK HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF TRACKS ALONG THE 3Z SREF. GFS ABOUT 20MI NW OF THE ECMWF...AND THE NAM SLIGHTLY E OF THE ECMWF. QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL FCST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A GENERAL 6-18 INCHES LIKELY. LEAST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS E...WHERE RAIN DOESNT HOLD THE NUMBERS DOWN. WITH REGARD TO THE RAIN...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT TO PENETRATE WWD INTO ECNTRL LI. THE TWIN FORKS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. AS THE LOW MAKES IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH HOWEVER IT UNDERGOES OCCLUSION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT H85 TEMPS NEVER RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT THE AREA MOSTLY SNOW BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL LI WWD WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE DEEP LOW WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND FIELD. BL WINDS IN THE GFS OVER 60KT. NAM WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER...BUT THE DEEPER ECMWF GIVES SUPPORT TO THE GFS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-60 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF LI. HAVE KEPT THE WARNINGS INTACT...BUT WILL INCLUDE WORDING STATING THAT AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE THE HIGHEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WILL BE TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL TIME TO OBSERVE WHAT ENSUES OVER THE OCEAN. THE STORM WINDS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS IT WILL BE OVER BY 15Z ATTM. DRY WITH LESS WIND TUE.