Sydney Claridge

Winds are picking up here in Fort Worth.  Also, SPC has expanded the Enhanced risk zone further west and northwards, now including Abilene and reaching just south of DFW.  Slight risk now goes up to the Red River and even includes a little bit of southern OK.  Definitely seems that the SPC is hinting towards stronger moisture return further north, as the tornado risk has also shifted northwards too.

And we now have an enhanced risk (with 10% tornado risk/30% severe wind risk) including Austin and the NW suburbs of Houston, with the slight risk extending northwards to DFW.  I'm a little skeptical of severe in DFW given that most of the models tend to keep them in the lower-to-mid-60s for temperatures (with dew points a few degrees lower) along with what appears to be multiple rounds of convective precipitation, though the shear seems good, and the models have at least trended a little bit upwards on moisture return.

The presence of isolated thunderstorms in a high-shear environment on the HRRR and NAM 3k does have me a bit intrigued, though much of this appears to be elevated convection ahead of the main line.  With such a slow year for severe thunderstorms it has been at least it is something.  Hopefully 2019 will have some more interesting setups to look forward to.

New Tornado Watch issued, including most of the DFW area (Tarrant & Dallas counties northwards).  SPC seems to not be ruling out the possibility of storms in DFW.

Though DFW has been dropped to a Marginal risk, a few of the models are bringing DFW back in on storm action, especially the last couple runs of the HRRR.

I wonder what everyone is thinking about the severe weather potential tomorrow in Texas?  Currently SPC has a slight risk in place for an area roughly bounded by Fort Worth to the NE, Killeen to the SE, and Abilene to the W.

Multiple NAM and NAM3K runs are getting some pretty high EHI values into parts of the north-central Texas region, though SPC is calling the NAM overdone.  Just waiting for what the 18z HRRR run has to say, though; that said, the 12z HRRR run does keep the surface-based instability south of the DFW Metroplex by about 2 counties or so.

Storm initiation happening now over the Fort Worth area, with a severe storm SW of Fort Worth.

Severe outlook also downgraded to Enhanced risk for NW OK and SW KS.

Tornado warning now for Collin County, including highly populated areas of McKinney and Plano.

6 minutes ago, Calderon said:

And DFW Airport is in the direct path of this exploding storm. Looks like American is about to get some newly dented planes. 

Seems a bit weaker on radar now, but there is a severe-warned storm just to the west on its heels.

The storm near Celina also seems to be developing a hook with what appears to be some rotation on radar.

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Severe Tstorm Warning for Tarrant and Dallas 

That storm only took like 20 minutes to go from a blip on the radar and then go severe... talk about explosive development.  The atmosphere is indeed very unstable.

Severe thunderstorm warning now up for northern Denton and Collin counties.  Although this warning is mostly north of the built-out parts of the DFW metroplex, to the southwest of the warning, storms trying to form near Springtown and Azle could potentially grow into a hail threat for the Metroplex.

Severe thunderstorm watch now out along the I-35 corridor in Texas from the Red River down to Temple, including the DFW area.

11 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Wasn't expecting the severe watch for the metro

Yeah, the models apparently want to fire up some storms along the cold front within the next 2 hours or so, possibly bringing a chance for severe to the DFW area if they can become more intense.

That said, the GFS has been trying to show an active period around the beginning of April.  Don't know what this means for severe potential though, but if the GFS verifies on delivering storm systems and we can have sufficiently high parameters for severe thunderstorms perhaps we'll at least get something out of it.

Looks like there is a pretty potent looking storm offshore between Fort Myers and Naples.  It would probably be coming onshore around the Naples area or perhaps south of there.

Feeling like north central Texas caught a break in terms of severe storms for today, but the 18Z NAM and NAM 3k are wanting to drive a big supercell through the DFW area for tomorrow, though the previous runs aren't really catching on to this idea.

EDIT: 18Z GFS also hints at this idea with heavier precipitation in Denton and Collin counties; a similar placement to the 18z NAM 3k.  I'm not too concerned with the exact placement as the models are just hinting at the idea that something could happen in the DFW vicinity, but it wouldn't be too pretty to see a big hailstorm go through the DFW area.

I believe that the frontal boundary is a bit further north than the models were forecasting, which seems to be located immediately south of the DFW metroplex, along roughly a Cleburne-Midlothian-Terrell line.  There's still some dry air in place over DFW (30s and 40s dewpoints compared to 50s and 60s DPs to the south), so we'll have to see how long it takes to moisten up over DFW.

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

The models show that DFW metro area will be near a surface warm front, with dryline existing at some point in central Texas tomorrow. SBCAPE values are forecast to be over 2000 J/kg south of the warm front. It is possible that severe storms will form near the warm front. The SPC could upgrade this area to a limited-area slight risk or keep it at a marginal risk.

Interesting, as I just noticed that the models (GFS, NAM, and NAM 3k) were suggesting that a complex of vigorous storms (possibly supercells transitioning to an MCS?) may form in the vicinity of the DFW metroplex tomorrow (especially in areas S/SW).  I would place my bet on a slight risk if the models continue to suggest the formation of a storm complex.

EDIT: SPC 6z outlook confirms slight risk (5% tornado/15% hail) for north central Texas, including the southern portion of the DFW metroplex.  NAM and GFS place the warm front slightly further north (into Denton and Collin counties) so if this holds I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk adjusted northwards, though the NAM 3k places it on a line from downtown Fort Worth to north of downtown Dallas (resolution differences?).  If the warm front moves further north (as NAM and GFS suggest) I'd expect the bulk of the DFW area to get in more on the storm action.

GFS is showing a storm forming somewhere in the central Plains for next weekend.  There's some run-to-run disagreement on where the humid air in the warm sector sets up though, as can be expected this far out.  Today's 6z GFS run forms a major storm (probably overblown with sub-980mb MSLP tracking from CO into NE) and would suggest some severe weather potential for eastern OK and north central TX for next Sunday (3/18), albeit with some capping issues.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to reach this time period to see what it shows...

While little to no severe weather is expected today, the GFS seems to be suggesting the potential for a severe thunderstorm event next Saturday (3/10) for the Red River area of north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma into East Texas.  CFS gives a stronger storm system with less instability (and brings some instability into NE OK), and GDPS (Canadian) seems to be a non-event for the southern Plains.  Euro has the strongest system, bringing a sub-1000mb MSLP low from the Panhandle into NE OK, and then to the lower Ohio River valley.

SPC says that the predictability is too low, but this is still 7 days out.

6 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

And the first svr t storm warning in this episode is for the Fort Worth area, technically outside of the current watch.  Good reminder of the NWS statement that says "persons in or close to the watch area" should be on the lookout.

I wasn't really expecting the second line to go severe, but I was not going to rule it out either. I had outdoor plans (afternoon run) for today that I have now cancelled, but I knew there would be a chance for thunderstorms. 

Hearing thunder on the west side of Fort Worth right now, with dark clouds to my southeast.

1 hour ago, BrandonC_TX said:

I won't be calling the Metroplex out of any storm action until we see how this second line behaves.

That was a good call on my part I'd say.

And SPC just put out a mesoscale discussion for East Texas (west to Dallas), eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, stating that a tornado watch is likely to be issued (80% probability of watch issuance) within the next two hours or so (likely before 21Z/3PM CST).

2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

SPC out with a slight risk for severe storms in the eastern half of NTX. Certainly feels like a stormy day outside

It seems that convective initiation is starting along and east of a line from DFW Airport up through Sherman, based on seeing small pops of heavier returns on the radar surrounded by no returns at all.  There are also patches of drizzle southwest of Fort Worth. 

We'll have to see how the storms develop.

Dewpoints are already up to the low 60s across most of the southern half of the slight risk area, per SPC mesoscale analysis.

16 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Supercell in Wise Co./ moving into Denton Co TX/ needs attention... Exhibiting some low-level rotation, and its moving into a populated area. Appears that it actually has two areas of rotation.

That storm does seem to be post-frontal, so I wonder if that might temper any potential threat for tornadic activity?