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dukeblue219

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Posts posted by dukeblue219

  1. 18 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

    Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

    115FB782-B0E0-4F8A-9A70-996742672577.jpeg

    Look at the MPING reports. That radar derived rain snow line is inaccurate by a hundred miles. 

    Screenshot_20220116-081149.png

  2. 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    The ensemble is a certain number, 20-50 depending on the model system, of lower resolution model runs with perturbed initial conditions. A mean of those members is produced at each time step for any particular variable. 

    The question I'm posing is whether a mean is always an end product (like an average of 50 rainfall amounts at each geographic point) or if the means are computed internally to generate a "mean" atmosphere at each timestamp and then used to generate a single output after additional processing. I assume it's the former as the latter would seem to be problematic but I had never thought about it before. 

  3. Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? 

  4. I don't know how much it's compacted, but woke up to 2.25" of fresh snow on the deck this morning. Not bad. Sidewalks and streets are mixed but not covered - looks like a lot of snow was wasted on the front end there. (near downtown Silver Spring) 

    • Like 1
  5. 10 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

    Has been snowing here since about 9. Grass surfaces have a decent coating. Pavement is just starting to cover. 
     

    FCPS put up a 2 hr late start for tomorrow morning. While most major roads I was on today were brined the mountain bus routes I am sure will grant the Miss J’s wish of a snow day tomorrow. 

    FCPS is already closed. 

    (Edit - assuming Fairfax but maybe not what you meant) 

  6. 5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

    Nice DC will have a 12-15 inch snow pack after this. 

    I'm on the north side, sure, but still inside the Beltway and we're down to about 3" max after the sun did its work today. Not sure we can reach a foot of snowpack. 

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