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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I mean realistically I’d trade .6” QPF with cold thermals and maximize ratios over 1” QPF but 20 miles from the big drop off and 10:1’s
  2. DDweatherman
    Precip to begin in about 42 hours on some models
  3. DDweatherman
    Latest
  4. DDweatherman
    Yeah it has a 993 over the chessie, no other model has a low in that spot, but also they don’t have the low that intense. ICON was about 2mb stronger w/the SLP vs 12z
  5. DDweatherman
    I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme
  6. DDweatherman
    Yeah I’d take the icon or 12z gfs output. Let’s see what 18z shows.
  7. DDweatherman
    Icon is a beaut for us LSV and E folks
  8. DDweatherman
    Hey muhfuckas, get that football talk out of my thread. 29 black discussions only. go ravens
  9. DDweatherman
    I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios.
  10. DDweatherman
    An hour 48 model war with GEFS N/W and EPS a bit to the S/E, ops in between which aren't that far from each other in ground truth (evolution wise). QPF is still a big discrepancy.
  11. DDweatherman
    After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1.
  12. DDweatherman
    I'm not actually buying that shield. I think it'll be a decently wide QPF shield.
  13. DDweatherman
    AI is about .5 QPF for our neck of the woods. Good news is if the baseline is 3-5 with boom potential I’d lock that in
  14. DDweatherman
    For us, I like the direction the euro seems to be heading. I think the qpf shield will be broader and more GFS like. That should make a lot of folks happy.
  15. DDweatherman
    Eh I don’t 100% agree, juicier in max zone, s/w a bit better. Just a tighter shield. I don’t hate the run, think the swath will be wider
  16. DDweatherman
    Compromise camp still looks great to me
  17. DDweatherman
    Well here we are page 29 and needing 29 black from the euro
  18. DDweatherman
    10:1, Kuchera, or 86:1?
  19. DDweatherman
    I will say, the UK hasn't been awful lately, though it has had a tendency to be underamped rather than its old days of being over. The trend from 12z yday to 0z to 12z today is a major drying & de-amp. Don't know how much I care, but it is noticeable.
  20. DDweatherman
    I prefer checking the median over the mean.
  21. DDweatherman
    It's kinda like Trudeau for the longest time, his ass just wouldn't leave
  22. DDweatherman
    1-1.2" QPF in the backyard. So these numbers are basically 10:1. That's juiced as hell. The compromise camp is a crushing.
  23. DDweatherman
    Its noice sir.
  24. DDweatherman
    I can't help but LOL sometimes when the next message is oh shes a BEAUT clark
  25. DDweatherman
    The roulette wheel thing part 2? Maybe the dart board thing?
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