DDweatherman

The stage is set for the ravens rule comeback starting at 0z. Watch the Nam fold then the varsity models come back our way. 
 

Since it’s our last ride this winter, should we do the 2nd thread comeback thread for good riddance? 

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

This is my take.  There isn’t any useful interaction going on. 

We would be better off letting them stay separate and let the tpv space back to the NW and heights to rise out in front of the s/s wave wouldn’t we?

Just now, CAPE said:

THIS.

It would really only be a ULL if the streams phased and then it gets energized by the s/s for a pass that would reinforce snow. By itself it’s as useful as @winter_warlock’s ex wife

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

 

Eric Webb is an asshat, just my opinion. 

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Are you saying that this was a step in a positive direction in that regard?

I’m not speaking for terp. What I’ll say is it may be, but we can’t go 1 forward 1 back with a really flat flow out front of the s/w, which was one issue with the 18z gfs

Just now, Scraff said:

Tonight is the “we’re either all in or all out”. Changes need to happen then or we’re smoking nothing by cirrus clouds with a few flurries. Onward and upward. Been a fun winter  regardless, and I personally thought it was going to suck. So I’m happy with whatever at this point, but everyone has their own happy threshold. I get it. I do want a blizzard bomb at some point though. 2016 was way too long ago…

I try not to complain sitting at 22” on the season. Definitely feel like it could have/should have been 40” but there were several events I got 1.5, 2, and the 7 I got a couple weeks ago where most here got an inch or less. 

Just now, Ji said:

dosent have a bias of being too weak in the southern jet?

I think that’s old days bias, and at longer leads. I tell you what, if it would focus on the northern piece of energy closer to the base of the h5 like the Nam did, that run would have been drastically better. 

Just now, Terpeast said:

We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately

I’d argue this run was better in that regard. It’s definitely something you’d need a “trend” towards, not gonna happen in 1 run…not at these leads

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be incredibly unlikely if the NAM nails this storm.

Fixed  

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I can actually read models just fine thank you. 

You read em like happy Gilmore reads his putts. Gfs is hot ass this run, but 0z is when the trends start. “Fresh data”

@TSSN+ is about as bad as Randy reading models coming out sometimes so there’s still hope

here's to hoping Ralph put something in his drink 

The gfs is going over bermuda 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

@stormtrackerbring us home

He’s hibernating. Please try another user

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I don't have pretty beer can but I have beautiful flowers. Come on gfs. Here's a lucky flower!

@TSSN+ says he only takes gummies 

I don’t really expect any notable good trends if they’re gonna happen until 0z or after but let’s see what “happy” (subjective) hour has in store

Just now, Ji said:

There is a good chance that it is a rug pull. However, how many times have we ignored it when it shows something unfair unfavorable because we said oh it’s the long range nam and it ends up being correct

Honestly? Not that many noteworthy occasions lol. The storms it did are usually shit storms where we were expecting a middling level storm 

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

You knew here?

Not a lot of “knew” individuals in here these days. 

Can I ask you, if you’re thinking the Nam is onto something, and you’d be heartbroken if it was wrong…can I have some of that crack

Just now, Ji said:

Nam seems stronger with Southen piece. Isn’t 48 hours it’s wheelhouse

It’s usually wrong at 9 or 12 hours out so idk 

The key to this afternoon and tonight’s run is keeping it within reach if a trend ensued through tomorrow’s cycles 

Just now, Fozz said:

This looks as if I’d expect it to cut west of us and be a rainer.

This is very puzzling to say the least.

I saw what amped said above about ridging upstream, but to be fair it was very flat relatively on the initial image. Not a huge trend there. 
 

id more attribute it to the more rounded tpv but a more positive/neutral tilt if anything. That and there being very little phase activity to YANK or TUG this N/W

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We should move this into a storm thread, imo, just because of the range. Focus on the warmth here.

Yeah, scraff declined to be the creator. Who’s next in line???

Just now, Wonderdog said:

We're close to 4 now. I fear we're headed to 0 and there's no coming back from that.

It’s crazy how miniscule downstream impacts can take somewhere from 0 to 12 in this. Models aren’t done moving

That euro run sucked for a lot of the forum, but wasn’t far from something a lot different. 

Euro has big time totals on a sharp cutoff to much less. Something different about that run. I really expect a different solution on 18 or 0z runs, maybe vastly different than this mornings